Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of June 29
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares a trio of exacta plays for Thursday, June 29 at Delaware Park and Charles Town.
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- Hoosier Park $1,000 Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the late Pick 4 on Thursdays at Hoosier Park to win your share of a $1,000 weekly jackpot.
- Ellis Park Thursday Leaderboard: Place $10 win bets on Thursdays at Ellis Park to compete for your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.
Picks and Plays
Delaware Park: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 4:00 p.m. ET)
#5 Iced Mocha (5-2) enters off promising workouts for red-hot trainer Michael Stidham, who has compiled an 18-5-4-1 (28%) record at Delaware Park this meet. Iced Mocha has posted a trio of bullet workouts at Delaware since the beginning of May, including a recent half-mile in :47 4/5.
Stidham has gone 5-for-22 (23%) debuting two-year-olds in dirt sprints at Delaware since 2020, and Iced Mocha is a daughter of Frosted, who sires a solid 13% winners from first-time starters. There are a lot of positives in Iced Mocha’s corner, so let’s bet her over #2 Eldari (7-2) and #6 Wright Up Front (6-1) in the exacta.
Our man @J_Keelerman's exploring the trainer stats found in @Brisnet's Ultimate Past Performances...
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Selections
- #5 Iced Mocha (5-2)
- #2 Eldari (7-2)
- #6 Wright Up Front (6-1)
Wagers
- $15 Exacta: 5 with 2,6 ($30)
Charles Town: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Since 2021, trainer Anthony Farrior has compiled a stellar 13-5-2-3 record debuting juveniles at Charles Town. That’s a 38% win rate and a 77% in-the-money rate.
This bodes well for Farrior’s unraced two-year-old #4 Ran Out of Trainer (5-2). The daughter of Tonalist has posted eight timed workouts at Charles Town, including a quick half-mile from the starting gate in :48 2/5 earlier this month. Throw in red-hot jockey Arnaldo Bocachica (a 30% winner at Charles Town this meet), and Ran Out of Trainer looks ready to win.
Let’s key Ran Out of Trainer over the fast-working Timothy Grams trainees #1 Full of Charm (3-1) and #6 Remy’s Hotshot (7-2) in the exacta.
Selections
- #4 Ran Out of Trainer (5-2)
- #1 Full of Charm (3-1)
- #6 Remy’s Hotshot (7-2)
Wagers
- $15 Exacta: 4 with 1,6 ($30)
Charles Town: Race 4: $5,000 Claiming (4 1/2 furlongs, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Pacesetters have won 40% of 4 1/2-furlong sprints contested at Charles Town this meet, and that’s from a large sample size of 258 races. Speed is dominant over this distance, which is a positive sign for #3 Cat With a Notion (6-5), who has carved out the pace in her last two starts over this track and distance.
There’s something exciting about betting late-running Thoroughbreds and cheering for them to catch up down the homestretch, but they’re generally at a disadvantage against rivals with superior early speed. @Brisnet Pace ratings can help you find them ⤵️ https://t.co/B5d1WFNkdE
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) November 15, 2022
On April 15, in her first run of the season, Cat With a Notion finished second by a neck in a $15,000 claimer. Then on May 18, she tackled an allowance and weakened in the final furlong to finish fourth by three-quarters of a length.
These efforts yielded sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 72 and 70, two of the highest numbers in Thursday’s field. Dropping into a $5,000 claimer can send Cat With a Notion to the winner’s circle over #7 Livana (7-2) and #1 Awesome Moon (6-1).
Selections
- #3 Cat With a Notion (6-5)
- #7 Livana (7-2)
- #1 Awesome Moon (6-1)
Wagers
- $10 Exacta: 3 with 1,7 ($20)
Good luck!
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