Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of June 30

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, June 30 at Ellis Park and Gulfstream Park, including horses to use in Gulfstream’s mandatory-payout $149,054 Rainbow Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Ellis Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Ellis Park.
• Yonkers Exacta Win Bonus: Receive a 25% bonus (up to $50) on winning exacta bets at Yonkers.

Picks and Plays

Ellis Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs, 1:18 p.m. ET)

#12 Grace Given (12-1) enters off a pair of bullet workouts for trainer John Ortiz, including a swift half-mile in :47 1/5 at Ellis Park. Ortiz does well preparing juveniles to win early in the season, as evidenced in part by his 5-2-1-2 (40%) record debuting two-year-olds at Ellis Park in July 2022.

At 12-1, Grace Given is worth betting to win and keying over fellow first-time starters #10 Copper Em (10-1) and #6 Creditor (15-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #12 Grace Given (12-1)
• #10 Copper Em (10-1)
• #6 Creditor (15-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #12 Grace Given
• $5 Exacta: 12 with 6,10 ($10)
  Total: $30

Gulfstream Park: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, 1:20 p.m. ET)

Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has compiled a 4-for-13 (31%) record debuting three-year-olds in Tapeta route races at Gulfstream Park, so we have to respect #1 Make Decisions (7-2). The gelded son of four-time leading North American sire Into Mischief has put together a lengthy work tab in preparation for his debut and offers a decent price on the morning line.

A win bet on Make Decisions and an exacta using #6 Twirling Express (9-5) and #7 Lyte Crude (5-2) for second place is the way we’ll play.

Selections

• #1 Make Decisions (7-2)
• #6 Twirling Express (9-5)
• #7 Lyte Crude (5-2)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #1 Make Decisions
• $6 Exacta: 1 with 6,7 ($12)
  Total: $30

Gulfstream Park: Race 5: $20,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, 2:52 p.m. ET)

#7 Monforte (6-1) has won 10 of his last 15 starts, including a pair of recent $10,000 claimers at Gulfstream Park. After employing pace-tracking tactics to beat a pair of next-out winners in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint, Monforte stretched out over one mile and 70 yards and led essentially all the way to prevail by three-quarters of a length.

Monforte has put up Brisnet Speed ratings in the 90-96 range in five of his last 10 starts, a significant achievement since none of his Friday rivals have ever posted a number higher than 87. He was claimed from his last start by trainer Javier Negrete, who wins at a 25% rate with new claiming acquisitions, so Monforte—with his consistent early speed—has to be viewed as a prime win threat in Friday’s largely paceless field of Florida-breds.

At 6-1, a win bet on Monforte is definitely in order. For good measure, we’ll bet him over the stakes-placed #2 Smart Striker (8-5) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #7 Monforte (6-1)
• #2 Smart Striker (8-5)
• #1 The Mar (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Monforte
• $10 Exacta: 7 with 2
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Gulfstream Park: Race 3: $149,054 Pick 6 mandatory payout (1:53 p.m. ET)

The $149,054 jackpot carryover in Gulfstream Park’s 20-cent Rainbow Pick 6 is scheduled for mandatory payout on Friday. Gulfstream estimates that the final pool for the popular wager will reach approximately $1 million.

A competitive but not unwieldy sequence is on the agenda. The six races contain a total of 49 horses, averaging just over eight horses per race. Before scratches, there are 286,720 possible outcomes—not too bad for a Pick 6, though playing them all on a 20-cent ticket would cost $57,344.

The smallest field can be found in the above-mentioned Race 5, in which #7 Monforte (6-1) looms as an enticing price play while facing only half a dozen rivals. Morning line favorite #2 Smart Striker (8-5) is worth including as backup on larger tickets, but bettors playing on small budgets can feel reasonably confident singling Monforte at nice odds.

However, the best chance for a single can be found in Race 8, a $12,500 maiden claimer taking place over one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta. Eight horses are set to face the starter, but morning line favorite #5 Emergency Response (2-1) looks tough to beat.

Trained by Jose D’Angelo (a 22% lifetime winner over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta), Emergency Response disappointed in his first two starts on dirt, but improved sharply when switching to the Gulfstream Tapeta for a $16,000 maiden claimer last month. After tracking and pressing the early pace, Emergency Response seized command in the homestretch, only to weaken late and settle for second place.

Even in defeat, Emergency Response earned an excellent 80 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number belonging to any horse in Friday’s field. That 80 is also four points higher than the par winning Brisnet Speed rating (76) for Friday’s conditions, suggesting that dropping down to the $12,500 maiden claiming level will be a winning strategy for Emergency Response. The presence of jockey Edwin Gonzalez (a 26% winner teaming up with D’Angelo over the last two months) cements Emergency Response as a compelling Pick 6 single.

Good luck!