Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of May 2

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, May 2 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill Downs, including tickets for Churchill’s $5,634 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day.
• Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in all eligible races Tuesday through Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:30 p.m. ET)

#7 Heaven and Earth (8-5) enters off a fast series of workouts for high-percentage trainer Jonathan Wong, a 25% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights. The daughter of juvenile Grade 1 winner Gormley looks ready to win against this seemingly modest field of Indiana-bred three-year-old fillies.

#5 No Joking Matter (5-2), dropping in class out of non-state-restricted maiden special weights at Turfway Park, can complete the exacta under hot jockey Santo Sanjur. We’ll also single Heaven and Earth to start a double wager.

Selections

• #7 Heaven and Earth (8-5)
• #5 No Joking Matter (5-2)
• #8 Out of Promises (10-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 7 with 5
• $15 Double: 7 with 5
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: $20,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:01 p.m. ET)

#5 Kitty Maclean (3-1) recently returned from a long layoff to wire a $25,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs by 4 3/4 lengths. Trainer Anthony Granitz wins at an 18% rate with shippers, so Kitty Maclean should be formidable while traveling to Horseshoe Indianapolis and tackling a $20,000 claimer.

#3 Joan’s Way (7-2) and #1 For the Biscuit (5-2) can round out exacta and trifecta bets. We’ll play the latter ticket to capitalize on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

Selections

• #5 Kitty Maclean (3-1)
• #3 Joan’s Way (7-2)
• #1 For the Biscuit (5-2)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 5 with 1,3 ($20)
• $5 Trifecta: 5 with 1,3 with 1,3 ($10)
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 3:50 p.m. ET)

Since 2020, trainer Philip Bauer has gone 3-for-12 (25%) saddling first-time starters at Churchill Downs. That’s even better than his overall 21% win rate with debuting runners.

These stats bode well for Bauer’s #9 Little Prankster (6-1), a daughter of the speedy sprinter/miler Practical Joke. Practical Joke won the Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1) at age two and sires a strong 16% winners from first-time starters, so Little Prankster has the potential to excel from an early age.

Throw in the fact Little Prankster breezed a bullet five furlongs in :59 3/5 at Churchill Downs two weeks ago, and she’s worth betting to win at anything close to her 6-1 morning line odds. #2 Giada (5-2), #6 Miss Arlington (10-1), and #8 Happy Am I (6-1) can battle to complete the exacta.

We’ll make our win bet a $10 variety to capitalize on the Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back promotion.

Selections

• #9 Little Prankster (6-1)
• #2 Giada (5-2)
• #6 Miss Arlington (10-1)

Wagers

• $10 to win on #9 Little Prankster
• $5 Exacta: 9 with 2,6,8 ($15)
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $5,634 Super High 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

No one hit the $1 Super High 5 in the final race on opening night at Churchill Downs, which means there’s a $5,634 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in Tuesday’s opening race.

Race 1 is a $10,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting seven furlongs on dirt. Seven horses have been entered, but there isn’t a lot of pace on paper, so we’ll favor the chances of #1 Gormleyesque (8-5).

A three-year-old daughter of Gormley, Gormleyesque showed speed but no staying power in her first three starts against maiden special weight company on turf and synthetic. But switching to dirt and dropping in class for a $20,000 maiden claimer at Keeneland last month triggered significant improvement. After carving out a decent pace, Gormleyesque weakened down the homestretch to finish fourth by 5 1/2 lengths.

Dropping down to the $10,000 maiden claiming level at Churchill Downs should make Gormleyesque difficult to catch under hot apprentice jockey Walter Rodriguez, who rides with a five-pound weight allowance. We recommend keying Gormleyesque on top in the Super High 5.

Underneath, #5 Girls House (6-5) is a logical contender to emphasize. The four-year-old filly has shown tactical speed against $15,000 and $30,000 maiden claiming competition at Turfway Park, so switching to dirt and dropping in class may help the daughter of Into Mischief carry her speed farther.

#3 Toto’srubyslippers (6-1) is also worthy of support after finishing third in a $20,000 maiden claimer dashing six furlongs at Keeeland last fall. She hasn’t run since, but Toto’srubyslippers enters off encouraging workouts at Keeneland and should be capable of factoring for a top-five finish.

If we key Gormleyesque on top, count on Girls House to finish second or third, and rely on Toto’srubyslippers to snatch a top-five finish, we can construct a solid series of Super High 5 tickets for only $36:

• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 3,5 with 3,5 with 2,4,6 with 2,4,6 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 5 with 2,4,6 with 3 with 2,4,6 ($6)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 5 with 2,4,6 with 2,4,6 with 3 ($6)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 2,4,6 with 5 with 3 with 2,4,6 ($6)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 2,4,6 with 5 with 2,4,6 with 3 ($6)
  Total: $36

Good luck!