Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of May 3

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, May 3 at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a win bet capitalizing on the Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back promotion.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in all eligible races Tuesday through Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Picks and Plays

Churchill Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 1:15 p.m. ET)

#5 Lil Anthony (12-1) is a longshot worth supporting in this maiden dash for juveniles. He’s compiled an encouraging work tab highlighted by a swift half-mile in :47 2/5 at Keeneland, and trainer Luis Mendez wins at a respectable 14% rate with first-time starters.

Throw in the fact Lil Anthony is a half-brother to Dr. Schivel, who won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) when trained by Mendez as a juvenile, and there’s a lot to like about Lil Anthony.

We’ll take advantage of the Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back promotion and place a $10 win bet on Lil Anthony. Then we’ll bet him over the experienced favorite #8 Sonofaship (8-5) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #5 Lil Anthony (12-1)
• #8 Sonofaship (8-5)
• #7 Vitement (10-1)

Wagers

• $10 to win: #5 Lil Anthony
• $10 Exacta: 5 with 8
  Total: $20

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:30 p.m. ET)

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for this type of race is 71, a number #7 Bad Boy Geist (4-5) easily exceeded when debuting over this track, distance, and class level on April 19. After dueling for the lead through a solid pace, Bad Boy Geist stayed on to finish second by two lengths, earning a 77 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of Bad Boy Geist’s Wednesday rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 67, so we’ll play the three-year-old gelding on top of #6 Whosforjustice (9-2) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #7 Bad Boy Geist (4-5)
• #6 Whosforjustice (9-2)
• #8 Runaway Image (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 7 with 6

Churchill Downs: Race 8: Isaac Murphy Marathon S. (1 1/2 miles, 4:19 p.m. ET)

#7 Next (8-5) has developed into a monster running long on dirt. After smashing Delaware Park’s 1 1/2-mile Cape Henlopen S. by 18 1/4 lengths in the track-record time of 2:30.25, Next wired the 1 5/8-mile Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G2) at Keeneland by 6 1/4 lengths in 2:42.59, missing the track record by 0.02.

These victories produced giant Brisnet Speed ratings of 113 and 110. Next has trained nicely in preparation for his 2023 and should be ready to deliver a third straight stakes win.

The improving Temperence Hill S. winner #3 Calibrate (12-1) can battle with two-time defending Isaac Murphy Marathon winner #1 Lone Rock (5-2) to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Next (8-5)
• #3 Calibrate (12-1)
• #1 Lone Rock (5-2)

Wagers

• $18 Exacta: 7 with 1
• $12 Exacta: 7 with 3
  Total: $30

Good luck!