Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of May 4

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, May 4 at Belmont Park and Churchill Downs, along with horses to play (and oppose) in the $21,287 Pick 5 carryover at Charles Town.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the late Pick 4 on Thursdays at Hoosier Park to win your share of a $1,000 weekly jackpot.
• Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in all eligible races Tuesday through Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Picks and Plays

Belmont Park: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Wesley Ward has gone 4-for-8 (50%) debuting juveniles during the first five months of the year at Belmont Park. This bodes well for #5 Princesa Celina (4-5), a daughter of successful sire Quality Road and a half-sister to a trio of stakes winners. One of those stakes winners, Happy Like a Fool, was a Ward trainee who won the Matron (G3) as a juvenile.

We’ll bet Princesa Celina over stablemate #3 Slainte Mhath (7-2) and first-time starter #1 Round the Town (3-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Princesa Celina (4-5)
• #3 Slainte Mhath (7-2)
• #1 Round the Town (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 5 with 1,3 ($30)

Picks and Plays

Belmont Park: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Wesley Ward has gone 4-for-8 (50%) debuting juveniles during the first five months of the year at Belmont Park. This bodes well for #5 Princesa Celina (4-5), a daughter of successful sire Quality Road and a half-sister to a trio of stakes winners. One of those stakes winners, Happy Like a Fool, was a Ward trainee who won the Matron (G3) as a juvenile.

We’ll bet Princesa Celina over stablemate #3 Slainte Mhath (7-2) and first-time starter #1 Round the Town (3-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Princesa Celina (4-5)
• #3 Slainte Mhath (7-2)
• #1 Round the Town (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 5 with 1,3 ($30)

Churchill Downs: Race 4: Kentucky Juvenile S. (five furlongs, 2:17 p.m. ET)

The fillies #1 Hibernacle (1-1) and #2 Youalmosthadme (6-5) impressed in a pair of 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weights at Keeneland last month. Hibernacle settled a couple lengths off the early pace before surging away to win by 7 1/2 lengths with an 82 Brisnet Speed rating, while Youalmosthadme dueled on her way to an 8 1/2-length victory with a 97 Brisnet Speed rating.

We’ll bet Youalmosthadme over Hibernacle in a cold exacta and call it a day.

Selections

• #2 Youalmosthadme (6-5)
• #1 Hibernacle (1-1)
• #3 Lil Anthony (15-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 2 with 1

Churchill Downs: Race 9: St. Matthews S. (six furlongs, 5:11 p.m. ET)

#6 Surveillance (4-1) was in hot form at Fair Grounds during the winter, rattling off victories in the Thanksgiving Classic S., Richard Scherer Memorial S., and Duncan F. Kenner S. He’s since finished fourth in the Colonel Power S. on turf and fourth again in a tough renewal of the Count Fleet Sprint H. (G3).

Those fourth-place finishes muddy Surveillance’s form a bit, but he was closing ground in the Count Fleet Sprint and should find the competition a bit easier at Churchill Downs.

Taking advantage of the Kentucky Derby $10 Money Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Surveillance, then bet him over #7 Bango (2-1) and #2 Miles Ahead (5-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Surveillance (4-1)
• #7 Bango (2-1)
• #2 Miles Ahead (5-2)

Wagers

• $10 to win on #6 Surveillance
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 2,7 ($10)
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Charles Town: Race 4: $21,287 Pick 5 carryover (8:25 p.m. ET)

The Thursday card at Charles Town features an enticing $21,287 non-jackpot Pick 5 carryover.

We’ve analyzed the entries to identify a single worth building tickets around and a vulnerable favorite worth opposing with a first-time starter:

Best single: Race 6: #2 Stowe Patrol (4-5)

It’s easy to see why Stowe Patrol is the 4-5 morning line favorite to win this $7,500 maiden claimer for West Virginia-bred fillies and mares sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs. The lightly raced daughter of Gormley exits a strong effort in a $12,500 maiden claimer over this track and class level, in which she dueled for the lead before weakening slightly to finish second by a neck.

Pacesetters have won 48% of 4 1/2-furlong sprints at Charles Town since Jan. 4, so dropping down to the $7,500 maiden claiming level should make Stowe Patrol difficult to catch. Adding to the appeal are her human connections; trainer Jeff Runco wins at a 22% rate in maiden claiming races, and jockey Arnaldo Bocachica is a 30% winner at Charles Town this meet. Together, Runco and Bocachica have teamed up to win at a 25% rate over the last two months, cementing Stowe Patrol’s status as a logical Pick 5 single.

Vulnerable favorite: Race 4: #6 Six Whips (5-2)

Six Whips is the morning line favorite to win this 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight, and his credentials are respectable. The three-year-old colt has hit the board in three of his last four starts against $30,000 and $20,000 maiden claiming competition at Oaklawn Park. He’s shipping to an easier circuit, and trainer Chelsey Moysey wins at a 20% rate with horses transitioning from maiden claiming to maiden special weight company.

But Six Whips doesn’t appear unbeatable. He’s never run over a bullring oval like Charles Town, and his last four Brisnet Speed ratings (69, 66, 67, and 68) fall below the 72 that ranks as the par winning number for Thursday’s conditions.

Six Whips is worth using in the Pick 5, but singling him could be a risky strategy. We actually prefer the chances of #3 Legendaire (7-2), a first-time starter from the barn of Benjamin Perkins Jr.

Since 2018, Perkins has gone 4-for-9 (44%) at Charles Town, and his overall strike rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights stands at a lofty 28%. Three of Legendaire’s last four workouts have been bullets, so the five-year-old gelding looks ready to challenge for victory on debut.

Good luck!