Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of May 5

Churchill Downs isn’t the only racetrack hosting quality racing on Friday. If you wish to round out your Kentucky Oaks Day plays with action at other tracks, handicapper J. Keeler Johnson has you covered with picks and plays for Belmont Park, Oaklawn Park, and Santa Anita.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Rest of the World $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Newmarket (UK).
• Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in all eligible races Tuesday through Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Picks and Plays

Belmont Park: Race 4: Sheepshead Bay (G2, about 1 3/8 miles on turf, 2:36 p.m. ET)

In a small field without much pace on paper, #3 Virginia Joy (7-2) is a formidable win threat. She wired this race by 14 1/4 lengths last year, one of three graded victories she scored during a productive 2022 campaign. All of those victories came racing 1 3/8 miles, including a gate-to-wire upset over War Like Goddess in the Flower Bowl (G2) at Saratoga.

If Virginia Joy is able to set or stalk a pedestrian pace on Friday, she can hold off stretch-running Orchid (G3) winner #5 Amazing Grace (8-5) and post a second straight victory in the Sheepshead Bay.

Selections

• #3 Virginia Joy (7-2)
• #5 Amazing Grace (8-5)
• #1 Mylady (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Virginia Joy
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 5
  Total: $30

Santa Anita: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 6:30 p.m. ET)

#5 Stavros (4-1) has put together a sharp work tab in preparation for his debut, highlighted by five furlongs from the Santa Anita starting gate in :59 2/5 and capped off by half a mile over the same track in :47. Trainer Bob Baffert wins at a 30% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights, stamping Stavros as a logical choice to take home top honors.

We’ll look for fellow first-time starters #8 Del Mar Jerry (6-1), #6 Emerald Union (15-1), and #1 Truehood (5-2) to complete the exacta and trifecta in one order or another.

Selections

• #5 Stavros (4-1)
• #8 Del Mar Jerry (6-1)
• #6 Emerald Union (15-1)

Wagers

• $6 Exacta: 5 with 1,6,8 ($18)
• $2 Trifecta: 5 with 1,6,8 with 1,6,8 ($12)
  Total: $30

Oaklawn Park: Race 10: Lake Ouachita S. (1 1/16 miles, 6:46 p.m. ET)

#7 Mr. Wireless (2-1) was a bit unlucky not to win a stakes during the Fair Grounds meet. He finished second in the Tenacious S., Louisiana (G3), and Mineshaft (G3) before coming home third in the New Orleans Classic (G2). In the latter race, Mr. Wireless earned a career-best 105 Brisnet Speed rating and missed second place by less than one length against Pegasus World Cup (G1) winner Art Collector.

Mr. Wireless is facing easier competition in the Lake Ouachita and should have every chance to snatch first prize. Recent Oaklawn allowance winner #8 Frosted Grace (3-1) can battle with Tenacious and Louisiana third-place finisher #1 Forza Di Oro (9-2) for runner-up honors.

Selections

• #7 Mr. Wireless (2-1)
• #8 Frosted Grace (3-1)
• #1 Forza Di Oro (9-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 7 with 1,8 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $8,539 Super High 5 carryover (10:30 a.m. ET)

Thanks to a 25-1 upset from Solidify in the Thursday finale at Churchill Downs, there’s an $8,539 Super High 5 carryover available to chase in the opening race of the Kentucky Oaks (G1) card.

Race 1 is a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight for fillies and mares. A large field has been entered, with #6 Destine to Race (4-1) and #12 Forever After All (7-2) looming as logical contenders after finishing second in contests over this distance and class level at Keeneland.

But if you want to mix in a longshot, #4 Heart Headed Woman (15-1) is an appealing choice. In her debut at Keeneland last month, she rallied mildly after a slow start to finish fourth in a six-furlong maiden special weight. Trainer Tom Drury Jr. wins at a 22% rate with horses running long for the first time, and Heart Headed Woman breezed a bullet half-mile in :47 at Churchill Downs last Saturday, suggesting she’s ready to step forward in her second career start.

Santa Anita: Race 1: $6,545 Super High 5 carryover (4:00 p.m. ET)

There’s also a Super High 5 carryover up for grabs at Santa Anita, where the prize pool stands at $6,545.

The carryover is on the table in Race 1, a $32,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races. The distance is one mile on turf, and #2 Slam Diego (2-1) looks like a filly to key on top in the Super High 5.

Slam Diego started her career on dirt and scored her lone victory in a $20,000 maiden claimer racing one mile over the Del Mar main track. But she’s improved since switching to turf at Santa Anita this season, finishing second in a $50,000 starter optional claimer racing one mile before overcoming a troubled start and a traffic-filled trip to finish fifth in another contest over the same distance and class level, beaten only two lengths.

With a clean trip on Friday, Slam Diego can visit the winner’s circle for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Hector Berrios and Jeff Mullins, who have gone 6-for-16 (38%) teaming up together over the last two months.

Good luck!