Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of May 6

If you wish to round out your Kentucky Derby Day plays with action at other tracks, handicapper J. Keeler Johnson has you covered with picks and plays for Belmont Park, Oaklawn Park, Santa Anita, and Turf Paradise, including a horse to single in the $523,250 mandatory-payout Pick 6 carryover at Turf Paradise.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Virginia Gold Cup $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race during the Virginia Gold Cup card at Great Meadow.
• Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in all eligible races Tuesday through Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Picks and Plays

Belmont Park: Race 10: Ruffian (G2, one mile, 5:37 p.m. ET)

#6 Gerrymander (8-1) misfired in her 2023 debut, finishing fifth in the seven-furlong Distaff H. (G3) at Aqueduct. But trainer Chad Brown sent out Search Results to trounce the 2022 Ruffian after kicking off her season with a 13 1/2-length loss in the Distaff H., so who’s to say Gerrymander can’t rebound in a similar manner?

Brown wins at a 30% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff, and Gerrymander tends to run her best races at Belmont, where her 4-2-2-0 tally includes a three-length romp in the 2022 Mother Goose (G2) and a runner-up finish in the 2021 Frizette (G1). At 8-1, Gerrymander is worth betting to win and playing over logical favorite #5 Kathleen O. (6-5) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Gerrymander (8-1)
• #5 Kathleen O. (6-5)
• #4 Idiomatic (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Gerrymander
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 5
  Total: $30

Oaklawn Park: Race 9: Lake Hamilton S. (six furlongs, 5:48 p.m. ET)

#5 Skelly (1-1) has been on a hot streak at Oaklawn, wiring three consecutive six-furlong dashes with improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 97, 100, and 103. In the Count Fleet Sprint H. (G3) last month, he carved out fast fractions before staying on to beat a quality field by 2 1/4 lengths.

Skelly can keep his momentum going in the Lake Hamilton, outsprinting #4 Tut’s Revenge (4-1) and #2 Joe Frazier (9-2) to the winner’s circle.

Selections

• #5 Skelly (1-1)
• #4 Tut’s Revenge (4-1)
• #2 Joe Frazier (9-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 5 with 2,4 ($30)

Santa Anita: Race 7: Senorita (G3, about 6 1/2 furlongs on turf, 7:37 p.m. ET)

#3 Ag Bullet (3-1) is 2-for-2 on turf, trouncing a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita before hanging on to win the one-mile Lady of Shamrock S. over the same course. A recent fifth-place finish in the Bourbonette Oaks can be attributed to trying Tapeta at Turfway Park.

Returning to turf at Santa Anita can help Ag Bullet bounce back for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Joe Bravo and George Papaprodromou, who have gone 2-for-5 (40%) teaming up together over the last two months.

We’ll bet Ag Bullet to win and play her over #1 The Wild Grazer (3-1), #2 Teena Ella (5-2), and #7 Fast and Shiny (7-2) in the trifecta.

Selections

• #3 Ag Bullet (3-1)
• #1 The Wild Grazer (3-1)
• #7 Fast and Shiny (7-2)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #3 Ag Bullet
• $3 Trifecta: 3 with 1 with 2,7 ($6)
• $3 Trifecta: 3 with 2,7 with 1 ($6)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turf Paradise: Race 5: $523,250 Pick 6 mandatory payout (4:20 p.m. ET)

Attention, horseplayers! No matter how busy you are betting the Kentucky Derby card, you have to carve out time to play the Grand Canyon Pick 6 at Turf Paradise. Saturday is closing day of the meet, so there’s a massive $523,250 jackpot carryover slated for mandatory dispersal.

Turf Paradise has put together a highly competitive card to close out the meet. The Pick 6 sequence contains 66 entries (averaging 11 per race) and a staggering 1,710,720 possible outcomes before scratches. It’s a good thing the minimum bet amount is 20 cents, because assembling a competitive ticket is going to require using many horses.

There is, however, a bright spot for bettors with limited budgets. Race 8, the $60,000 Turf Paradise Open Spring Futurity for two-year-olds sprinting five furlongs on dirt, features a viable single in the form of #9 Its a Cheap Date (8-5). Since there are 10 horses in the Spring Futurity field, singling Its a Cheap Date reduces the number of Pick 6 outcomes to consider from 1,710,720 to 171,072. That’s a meaningful drop.

All of the Spring Futurity entrants contested one of two 4 1/2-furlong trials contested on April 15 at Turf Paradise. The two trials were contested about half an hour apart, and by far the faster of the two was dominated by Its a Cheap Date. The speedy Vann Belvoir trainee opened up a daylight lead through an opening quarter-mile in :22.25, extended her advantage through half a mile in :44.93, and finished up fast (final sixteenth in :05.99) to win by nine lengths in :50.92. For comparison, the second trial elapsed in :52.38.

Belvoir has enjoyed a strong Turf Paradise meet, winning with 23% of his starters, and Its a Cheap Date will be ridden for the second straight race by Turf Paradise’s runaway leading jockey Harry Hernandez. Hernandez has gone 146-for-586 (25%) this meet and has won at a 23% rate teaming up with Belvoir over the last two months, so by any metric Its a Cheap Date is an enticing Pick 6 single.

The Pick 6 concludes with the $60,000 Hasta La Vista S., a grass contest held over the marathon distance of 1 7/8 miles. The field doesn’t contain much speed on paper, so #7 Cashanova (6-1) offers some appeal at nice odds. The seven-year-old gelding routinely sets or presses the pace and has cracked the trifecta in seven of his eight runs over the Turf Paradise lawn, so if a pedestrian tempo unfolds, the son of Twirling Candy is a candidate to capitalize.

Good luck!