Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Aug. 19

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Aug. 19 at Arlington Park and Presque Isle Downs, including a ticket for Arlington’s $242,977 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Arlington Park and Presque Isle Downs.
• Saratoga Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Saratoga. Offer must be unlocked each day of the meet; see offers page for details.

Picks and plays

Arlington Park, Race 6: $6,250 claiming (one mile on turf, 5:53 p.m. ET)

#8 Azrael (1-1) is the heavy favorite on the morning line, but the son of Cross Traffic completely misfired in a $12,500 claimer at Arlington two months ago, when he finished last by a wide margin.

Considering Azrael dominated a $20,000 claimer in May, his deteriorating form and current descent on the class ladder make him tough to trust at a short price.

Instead, we’ll play #4 White Mist (9-2). The capable three-year-old has won two of his last three starts over the Arlington turf course, including a $12,500 claimer at Thursday’s one-mile distance. If you draw a line through his disappointing finish against much tougher company on Polytrack last time out, it’s easy to build a case for White Mist, especially on the drop to the $6,250 level.

To take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on White Mist, then add an exacta, with Azrael and #5 Roar of the Lion (6-1) in the second-place spot.

$10 to win on #4 White Mist
$5 exacta: 4 with 5,8 ($10)
Total: $20

Presque Isle Downs, Race 6: $20,000 claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 6:50 p.m. ET)

#6 Peanuts Perfection (9-5) is the favorite for high-percentage trainer David Wolochuk, but his best Brisnet Speed ratings have been earned on dirt, and he is winless in three starts over the Tapeta track at Presque Isle. Peanuts Perfection cracked the trifecta all three times, but two of his defeats came to #4 Jareth (5-2), who can retain his supremacy Thursday.

Jareth faltered in an optional-claiming allowance at Presque Isle two weeks ago, but he previously defeated Peanuts Perfection by a neck in a $20,000 claimer. A return to that class level can send Jareth back to the winner’s circle at a fair price.

Following along with the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Jareth. Then we’ll play him over Peanuts Perfection in a cold exacta.

$10 to win on #4 Jareth
$5 exacta: 4 with 6
Total: $15

Presque Isle Downs, Race 7: Allowance (one mile and 70 yards, 7:15 p.m. ET)

#2 Twila Mae (9-5) tasted defeat in her first 13 starts, but the daughter of New Year’s Day has enjoyed recent success, with three wins in her last seven starts.

All her victories came racing one mile or farther over the Presque Isle Tapeta, including a 3 3/4-length victory in an optional-claiming allowance July 28.

Twila Mae ran too good to lose at this track, distance, and class level Aug. 3, when she rallied from behind a modest pace to finish second by a head. That effort produced a career-best 85 Brisnet Speed rating, tied for the best figure in Thursday’s field, so Twila Mae looks tough to beat at the same conditions.

We’ll round out our Midweek Bet Back plays with a $10 win wager on Twila Mae, along with an exacta, with recent maiden winner #3 Jean V’s Legacy (5-2) and Presque Isle veteran #5 Thisaintjumpstreet (7-2) in the runner-up spot.

$10 to win on #2 Twila Mae
$5 exacta: 2 with 3,5 ($10)
Total: $20

Carryover watch

Arlington Park, Race 7: $242,977 Jackpot High 5 (6:24 p.m. ET)

The Jackpot High 5 at Arlington Park has accumulated at a steady pace. The prize pool stands at $242,977 for Race 7 on Thursday, but winning that lofty amount won’t be easy. The jackpot only pays out if a unique winning ticket hits, and since Race 7 features just nine entries and 15,120 possible outcomes, that outcome is unlikely.

But perhaps Thursday is the day! Race 7 is a maiden special weight for two-year-olds at one mile on turf, conditions none of the entrants have tackled, so an unpredictable outcome could be in the offing.

The obvious approach to handicapping this race is to favor #5 Unpredictable Bay (2-1), who has shown the most talent in third- and second-place finishes from his first two starts against maiden special weight company at Arlington.

But those events were sprints held over the Polytrack course, and the stretch out around two turns on turf is a big question mark for Unpredictable Bay. His pedigree isn’t geared toward success on turf, so I don’t think Unpredictable Bay is unbeatable at a short price.

The same can be said of #7 Short Pepper (4-1), who finished 5 3/4 lengths behind Unpredictable Bay (third) in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint July 31. Sire Classic Empire, dam Le Mi Geaux, and damsire First Samurai were all graded stakes winners on dirt, so it’s not like Short Pepper is bred to excel on grass.

So why not take a shot against the favorites with runners at better odds? #2 Kerns Not Kearns (9-2) is one option.

As a son of Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) winner Tourist, who sires 17% winners on turf, Kerns Not Kearns has the pedigree to handle the Arlington lawn. He showed some ability over the grass course in his debut Aug. 5, when he rallied to finish fifth, just two lengths behind the winner, in a five-furlong maiden special weight.

The stretch out in distance shouldn’t be an issue for Kerns Not Kearns, and trainer James DiVito wins at a 22% rate with second-time starters, so we should see an improved effort from Kerns Not Kearns.

Much the same can be expected of #8 Ronstadt (5-1), a full sibling to turf stakes winner Lady Alexandra. Ronstadt could only finish seventh in his debut, a five-furlong dash over the Arlington turf course, but he is eligible to improve for trainer Eoin Harty, who strikes at a 24% rate with second-time grass starters.

For the Jackpot High 5, we’ll put Kerns Not Kearns and Ronstadt on top, with the favorites underneath. Even if we don’t construct a unique winning ticket, we should be able to catch a solid payoff.

20-cent Super High 5: 2,8 with 2,5,7,8 with 2,5,7,8 with 2,5,7,8 with ALL ($12)
20-cent Super High 5: 2,8 with 2,5,7,8 with 2,5,7,8 with ALL with 2,5,7,8 ($12)
Total: $24

Good luck!