Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 3

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Aug. 3 at Colonial Downs, Thistledown, and Presque Isle Downs, along with suggested singles for carryovers at Belterra Park and Canterbury Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Build Your Virginia Derby Day Bankroll: For every day you wager at least $100 at Colonial Downs from July 26-Aug. 30, receive $5 to wager at Colonial Downs on Virginia Derby day, Aug. 31.
• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Arizona Downs and Thistledown.

Picks and Plays

Colonial Downs, Race 4: $16,000 claiming (five furlongs on turf, 3:09 p.m. ET)

#1 Slippin Jimmy (1-1) really shouldn’t lose this grass dash for non-winners of three races lifetime.

Whereas his rivals have posted Brisnet Speed ratings in the 60s and 70s, Slippin Jimmy has posted four straight figures in the 81-90 range.

Those strong figures have allowed Slippin Jimmy to compete admirably against tougher company. During the winter at Gulfstream Park, Slippin Jimmy contested a pair of five-furlong, $35,000 claiming sprints, and he recorded a flashy win and a close, runner-up effort.

Slippin Jimmy enters off a solid fifth against $50,000 company at Belmont Park, so this descent to the $16,000 level at Colonial Downs should be enough to trigger a victory for trainer Sarah Nagle.

Slippin Jimmy is a standout on paper and towers over the field from a Brisnet Prime Power standpoint. He tops those rankings by 23 points. So why not place a $100 win bet on Slippin Jimmy? No matter what the outcome, you’ll earn $5 to wager on Virginia Derby Day, through the Build Your Virginia Derby Day Bankroll promotion.

$100 to win on #1 Slippin Jimmy

Thistledown, Race 6: Allowance/optional claiming (one mile, 3:20 p.m. ET)

#3 Little Blaker (6-1) has earned strong Brisnet Speed ratings in his last two starts, both of them $12,500 claimers at Thistledown.

He threw down an 85 when he rolled to victory by two lengths June 17, then posted an 82 when he weakened off a hot pace to finish fifth July 14.

Those events were six-furlong sprints, and it has been a while since Little Blaker stretched his speed around two turns, but the son of Regal Ransom has a respectable 1-1-1 record from six starts at one mile, so there’s no reason to think he can’t handle Tuesday’s longer trip. Plus, he has the tactical speed to work out an ideal trip under jockey Fernando Salazar Becerra, who wins at a 21% rate when he teams with trainer Nestor Rivera.

To take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Little Blaker. Then we’ll add a small exacta, with #7 Send Me On (3-1) underneath.

$10 to win on #3 Little Blaker
$5 exacta: 3 with 7
Total: $15

Presque Isle Downs, Race 4: Maiden special weight (five furlongs on Tapeta, 6 p.m. ET)

#3 Battle Charge (5-2) has never run over a synthetic track, but at least she has run well against good company. The daughter of Will Take Charge has placed third and second in her first two starts, both 5 1/2-furlong dashes at Gulfstream Park, which earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 68 and 79. Her runner-up effort was particularly impressive, since Battle Charge ran into traffic before she rallied fast to miss victory by a head.

Battle Charge is trained by Timothy Hamm, who has 12 wins from 24 starts at Presque Isle this meet. Battle Charge will also be ridden by Pablo Morales, a 35% winner at Presque Isle who has eight wins from 10 starts for Hamm over the last two months.

A large win bet on Battle Charge is definitely in order, along with an exacta with #11 She’s a Fast One (3-1) and #12 Ali Alley (3-1) for second place.

$25 to win on #5 Barbie’s Quest
$5 exacta: 3 with 11,12 ($10)
Total: $35

Carryover watch

Belterra Park, Race 4: $3,171 Pick 5 carryover (2:05 p.m. ET)

Not a single bettor managed to hit the 50-cent Pick 5 at Belterra Park on Friday, which means there is a $3,171 carryover on tap Tuesday.

The sequence technically contains 42 horses and 25,920 possible outcomes, though that is a little deceiving. Four of those horses are also-eligibles, and two others will race as a coupled entry, so for betting purposes, there shouldn’t be more than 17,280 potential tickets to ponder.

You can slice the possibilities down even further if you’re willing to single #4 Revans Reign (4-1) in Race 4, the opening leg of the sequence. The race in question is a six-furlong, $5,000 claimer for non-winners of two races lifetime, which should suit Revans Reign. The five-year-old gelding has been in promising form this year at Belterra, where he won a $7,500 maiden claimer via disqualification and finished fourth for an $8,000 tag.

Just five horses are entered in Race 4, and Revans Reign looms as the only obvious pace player, so there’s a chance he will shake loose on an uncontested lead. If he does, he’ll be tough to catch.

Canterbury Park, Race 4: $3,627 Pick 6 carryover (7:40 p.m. ET)

It’s always hard to pass on Canterbury’s Pick 6 when there is a carryover. The $1 wager boasts a low takeout rate of 10%, so when a carryover is added to the mix, the combination makes for an enticing midweek Pick 6.

The opening leg of the sequence is Race 4, a maiden special weight slated to be held over one mile and 70 yards on the turf course. If you want to kick things off with a creative single, why not use #1 Runaway Harry (6-1)?

Whereas some of Runaway Harry’s key rivals have tasted defeat on more than a half-dozen occasions, Runaway Harry has only run once, and he finished second against maiden special weight company in a six-furlong dirt sprint at Canterbury.

The stretch out in distance and switch to turf are both question marks for the three-year-old gelding, but the 75 Brisnet Speed rating he received on debut is solid. But three of his siblings have won on turf, so Runaway Harry looks like an enticing longshot choice for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Ry Eikleberry and Tony Rengstorf.

Runaway Harry might not be your typical short-priced single, but if he makes it to the winner’s circle, we’ll be well on our way to cashing a lucrative Pick 6.

Good luck!