Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Dec. 1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Dec. 1 at Parx Racing, Tampa Bay Downs, and Mahoning Valley, including a trio of exacta bets.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Happy Valley (Hong Kong).

Picks and Plays

Parx Racing: Race 4: $10,000 Maiden Claiming (seven furlongs, 1:31 p.m. ET)

#4 Helothismarbles (6-5) posted a field-best 73 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing fourth in his debut against maiden special weight company at Parx last month. After tracking the early pace from third place, Helothismarbles stayed on reasonably well to finish fourth, beaten 6 3/4 lengths.

Dropping into a $10,000 maiden claimer might be all Helosthismarbles needs to visit the winner’s circle. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Wednesday’s conditions is only 72, and trainer Guadalupe Preciado wins at a 30% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company. Throw in jockey Mychel Sanchez (who has gone 6-for-11 teaming up with Preciado over the last two months), and we should have a recipe for victory.

#2 Horse Be With You (4-1), fourth in his last two starts against $16,000 maiden claiming company at Parx, can complete the exacta.

• $25 to win on #4 Helothismarbles
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 2
• Total: $35

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 6: $75,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (five furlongs on turf, 2:55 p.m. ET)

#4 The Critical Way (3-5) looms as an overwhelming favorite in this five-furlong turf dash. The seven-year-old gelding rarely misses the trifecta these days and has crossed the wire first in three straight stakes, including the five-furlong Parx Dash (G3) last time out.

The Critical Way hasn’t run since August, but high-percentage trainer Jose Delgado wins at a 21% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so the break shouldn’t be a concern. The Critcial Way brings a bevy of sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the field and has the tactical speed and tractability to work out a perfect trip, setting the stage for victory at short odds.

#2 Ship It Red (20-1), victorious in his last two starts sprinting on firm turf, looks like a live longshot to complete the exacta.

• $30 to win on #4 The Critical Way
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 2
• Total: $35

Mahoning Valley: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 4:02 p.m. ET)

#1 Double Edged (5-2) has finished second and third in his first two starts against maiden special weight company at Mahoning Valley, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 64 and 70. Along the way, he’s defeated six of the 11 horses entered in Wednesday’s field, including all but one of the experienced runners.

Unless one of the four first-time starters produces a big run on debut, the third time should be the charm for Double Edged, who races for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Christian Pilares and Robert Gorham. We’ll bet Double Edged to win, then key him over #4 Tilly Manilly (15-1) in the exacta.

• $25 to win on #1 Double Edged
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 4
• Total: $30

Good luck!