Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Dec. 10

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Dec. 10 at Fair Grounds, Los Alamitos, and Turfway Park, along with suggested singles for Los Alamitos’ $17,557 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Fair Grounds. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Randwick (Australia).

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 5: Magic City Classic (one mile, 4:09 p.m. ET)

In this two-turn dirt stakes for Alabama-breds, #6 Liken It (7-2) offers appeal at a fair price. The four-year-old gelding actually won this race last year, rallying from midfield to beat #4 Foolish Steve (9-5) by three-quarters of a length.

Liken It has since been competing against open company, most notably winning a $20,000 claimer at Delta Downs last spring. He exits a pair of allowance events on the Louisiana circuit and should appreciate returning to the Alabama-bred ranks on Friday, setting the stage for a mild upset.

We’ll bet Liken It to win and key him over Foolish Steve in a cold $10 exacta, in order to capitalize on the Exacta Insurance promotion.

$20 to win on #6 Liken It
$10 Exacta: 6 with 4
Total: $30

Los Alamitos: Race 8: Soviet Problem S. (one mile, 6:58 p.m. ET)

#4 Professor’s Pride (5-1) was as sharp as could be in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar last month. Facing fellow California-breds, the daughter of Bayern tracked the early tempo before taking command to win by an easy length.

This impressive debut yielded a 90 Brisnet Speed rating, one of the highest figures in Friday’s field. If Professor’s Pride improves at all while stretching out over one mile, she can spring a surprise against the stakes-placed maiden #9 Big Novel (3-1).

$20 to win on #4 Professor’s Pride
$5 Exacta: 4 with 9
Total: $25

Turfway Park: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 7:16 p.m. ET)

#11 Lilac Girl (8-5) has shown promising form on turf at Belmont Park, finishing second in a pair of maiden special weight sprints. On both occasions, she gained ground late to lose by narrow margins.

With Brisnet Speed ratings of 86 and 84 under her belt, Lilac Girl is fast enough to vie for victory at Turfway Park. Trainer Jonathan Thomas has gone 12-for-33 (36%) at Turfway since 2020, so if Lilac Girl handles the switch to Tapeta, she can cruise home on top under ultra-hot jockey Gerardo Corrales.

We’ll place a large win bet on Lilac Girl and call it a day.

$50 to win on #11 Lilac Girl

Carryover Watch

Los Alamitos, Race 3: $17,557 Pick 6 carryover (4:28 p.m. ET)

Ready for a fun (but challenging) day of racing at Los Alamitos? Then you’ll want to check out the California racetrack’s $17,557 Pick 6 carryover. The non-jackpot wager carries a $2 minimum bet amount, which means tickets can quickly grow expensive. But if you can assemble a winning ticket, you might not have the split the pool with as many bettors as you would when playing a less expensive 20-cent or even $1 Pick 6.

In order to keep costs in a reasonable range, here are a couple of suggested singles to favor in the Los Alamitos Pick 6:

Race 4: $30,000 Maiden Claiming: #3 Philly Lishes (8-5)

Who is the fastest horse in this 5 1/2-furlong dash for sophomore fillies? That would be Philly Lishes, a daughter of speedy sprinter/miler Munnings. Whereeas none of her rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 68, Philly Lishes has posted figures of 73 or better in three of her five starts, including a 78 when second in a $20,000 maiden claimer over this track and class level on Sept. 25.

Philly Lishes suffered a poor start when finishing eighth in a $20,000 maiden claimer at Del Mar last time out, so with a clean break on Friday, she’s eligible to rebound. Adding blinkers stands to sharpen her speed, and hot apprentice jockey Diego Herrera is named to ride, giving Philly Lishes a five-pound weight break compared to her rivals. In conclusion, Philly Lishes appears poised for victory as a short-priced single.

Race 5: $20,000 Allowance Optional Claimer: #3 Crash Corrigan (5-2)

This 5 1/2-furlong sprint for California-breds looks ripe for conquest by Crash Corrigan, a three-year-old gelding set to make his first start since being claimed by hot trainer Lorenzo Ruiz. Last time out, Crash Corrigan absolutely obliterated an open $25,000 claimer for non-winners of two races lifetime, winning by a dozen lengths with a career-best 92 Brisnet Speed rating.

Squaring off against fellow California-breds should make Crash Corrigan formidable under hot jockey Drayden Van Dyke, who has compiled a 6-2-0-2 (33%) record to start the meet. Crash Corrigan consistently runs fast on the Brisnet Speed rating scale and won his last start against California-bred company, so if there’s a second trustworthy single in the Pick 6, Crash Corrigan is probably the one.

Good luck!