Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Dec. 13

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Dec. 13 at Mahoning Valley and Parx Racing, along with horses to emphasize in Zia Park’s $714 Pick 5 carryover.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 4: $5,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile, 2:08 p.m. ET)

#5 Precision Prado (10-1) has been competing against tougher company in recent starts, most notably finishing third in a $7,500 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Mahoning Valley. But during the spring at Thistledown, Precision Prado ran strongly in a one-mile, $5,000 maiden claimer, carving out the pace before hanging on to finish second.

Returning to that class level and distance can help Precision Prado vie for victory at a solid price on Monday. We’ll bet her to win and key her over #6 Miss Dogwood (4-5) and #2 El Valor (7-5) in the exacta and trifecta.

$15 to win on #5 Precision Prado
$5 Exacta: 5 with 2,6 ($10)
$2.50 Trifecta: 5 with 2,6 with 2,6 ($5)
Total: $30

Mahoning Valley: Race 5: Allowance (one mile, 2:36 p.m. ET)

#7 Abigail Lee (4-1) has been in strong form, cracking the trifecta in five of her last six starts while showcasing a variety of running styles. She was especially sharp in her lone route run during this timeframe, posting a 76 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing third in a one-mile allowance at Mahoning.

Considering morning line favorite #3 Sure Fire Ready (3-1) posted her career-best 74 Brisnet Speed rating in a maiden special weight (and subsequently disappointed against allowance company), Abigail Lee appears to have a live upset chance. We’ll bet her to win and play her over Sure Fire Ready and #5 Dancing Grace (8-1) in the exacta.

$20 to win on #7 Abigail Lee
$5 Exacta: 7 with 3,5 ($10)
Total: $30

Parx Racing: Race 6: $40,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 2:25 p.m. ET)

#2 Fanelli (15-1) never challenged in his debut against maiden special weight company at Parx last month, but the son of Practical Joke suffered a slow start and actually passed a few rivals late to finish seventh.

There are reasons to believe Fanelli can improve in his second run under colors. Obviously, a clean break would help his chances. But it’s also important to note hot trainer Daniel Velazquez wins at a lofty 38% rate with horses transitioning from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, suggesting the class drop can trigger a winning performance from Fanelli.

We’ll bet Fanelli to win and call it a day.

$15 to win on #2 Fanelli

Carryover Watch

Zia Park, Race 6: $714 Pick 5 carryover (4:15 p.m. ET)

Another Monday, another Pick 5 carryover at Zia Park. This week’s prize pool for the 50-cent wager is $714—not a huge sum, but worth our attention on a quiet day of racing. After all, it’s the only non-jackpot carryover up for grabs at a U.S. Thoroughbred racetrack, and if no one assembles a winning ticket, 50% of the daily pool will be paid out to bettors who select the highest number of winners.

That’s good news, because constructing a winning ticket won’t be easy. Every race in the sequence contains a minimum of eight horses, adding up to 51 total entries—that’s an average of 10.2 per race. All told, there are 103,680 possible outcomes to consider.

If you want to reduce the number of outcomes to a more manageable 8,640, we recommend getting creative with a single in Race 10. The finale of the afternoon is a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for New Mexico-bred juveniles, and the first-time starter #4 Diabolical Storm (6-1) looks live at a nice price.

Granted, there’s some risk in singling an unraced (and thus completely unproven) horse. But Diabolical Storm has put together a solid work tab, and he has some powerful trainer stats in his corner. For example, hot trainer Todd Fincher (a 25% winner this meet) strikes at a lofty 30% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights. Even better, Fincher has gone 8-for-25 (32%) debuting juveniles at Zia Park since 2017.

Diabolical Storm is a January foal, so he might be further along from a maturity perspective than some of his rivals. I’m willing to bet this gray gelding can fire a strong shot right out of the gate and deliver victory as a Pick 5 single.

We can further simplify the Pick 5 by using only two horses in Race 9, the Steve Prather S. for New Mexico-bred juveniles. #5 Wheres Brayden (8-5) is the logical favorite after nabbing the six-furlong New Mexico Classic Cup Juvenile Championship S. at Zia by four lengths. But in case stretching out over one mile and 70 yards proves problematic, we’ll use #2 Bodie Got Gold (5-1)—an impressive Zia debut winner for hot trainer Bart Hone—as backup.

Good luck!