Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Dec. 15

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Dec. 15 at Mahoning Valley and Tampa Bay Downs, along with tickets for Gulfstream Park’s $16,182 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Mahoning Valley and Parx Racing.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Happy Valley (Hong Kong).

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 5: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:36 p.m. ET)

#7 Act of Bob (3-1) went 1-for-9 racing on turf and synthetic to start his career. But since switching to dirt during the summer, Act of Bob is undefeated in five starts, winning all in gate-to-wire fashion while ascending the class ladder and improving his Brisnet Speed ratings.

Act of Bob most recently nabbed a $15,000 allowance optional claimer at Mountaineer by two lengths, in the process putting up a career-best 89 Brisnet Speed rating. If Act of Bob brings his A-game to Wednesday’s allowance at Mahoning Valley, he’ll be tough to catch for the ultra-hot jockey/trainer duo of Sonny Leon and Elliot Sullivan. Over the last two months, Leon and Sullivan have won at a 54% clip together.

#1 Totellyouthetruth (7-2) can complete the exacta, but our primary play will be a $10 win bet on Act of Bob, in order to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back offer.

$10 to win on #7 Act of Bob
$5 Exacta: 7 with 1
Total: $15

Mahoning Valley: Race 6: $15,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:04 p.m. ET)

There’s a lot of speed in this claiming sprint, which may set the stage for a winning performance from #2 Strategic Ekati (3-1). The stretch-running son of Tale of Ekati hasn’t missed the board in his last 33 starts, recording 11 wins and 28 trifecta finishes during this timeframe.

Strategic Ekati ran strongly in a $15,000 allowance optional claimer at Mountaineer two weeks ago, rallying to finish third with an excellent 94 Brisnet Speed rating. With a 10-5-3-2 lifetime record at Mahoning, returning to the Ohio circuit should only benefit Strategic Ekati, who will be ridden by Angel Diaz. Over the last two months, Diaz has won at a 39% rate when teaming up with high-percentage trainer Nabu Morales.

#5 Alacritous (5-2), a gate-to-wire winner of a $15,000 claimer at Mahoning last month, is a logical choice to complete the exacta.

$25 to win on #2 Strategic Ekati
$5 Exacta: 2 with 5
Total: $30

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 4:18 p.m. ET)

#3 Battle of Britain (9-5) looms as a deserving favorite in this two-turn turf route. The bay gelding ran strongly in his Oct. 27 debut over this distance at Keeneland, rallying gamely after a troubled start to finish second by less than a length.

As a son of War Front out of Photograph, Battle of Britain is a full sibling to a quartet of graded stakes-caliber turf routers, including Flower Bowl S. (G1) winner Civil Union. If he improves at all in his second start for hot trainer Reeve McGaughey, Battle of Britain can cruise to victory at Tampa Bay Downs.

#4 Alexander Valley (7-2) can garner runner-up honors.

$25 to win on #3 Battle of Britain
$5 Exacta: 3 with 4
Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Gulfstream Park, Race 1: $16,182 Super High 5 carryover (12:30 p.m. ET)

Who’s ready to chase a five-figure, non-jackpot carryover? If this challenge sounds enticing, then you had better check out the Wednesday opener at Gulfstream Park, where a $16,182 Super High 5 prize pool is up for grabs.

Super High 5 wagers are never easy to hit, but Wednesday’s offering looks a lot more manageable than most. Only seven horses have been entered in Race 1, a $12,500 maiden claimer slated to be contested over six furlongs on dirt. That equates to just 2,520 possible outcomes.

When it comes to Brisnet Speed ratings, the highest last-out figure belongs to #1 Attenti Mandatory (4-1), third in his debut for a $25,000 claiming tag at Gulfstream two months ago. A midfield trip saw Attenti Mandatory come home 5 3/4 lengths behind the winner while posting a 71 Brisnet Speed rating.

But will dropping in class be sufficient to land Attenti Mandatory in the winner’s circle? Switching to dirt is a question mark, since half-sister Lady Alexandra was a stakes-winning turf star.

I’m more inclined to favor #2 Nureyev’s Dream (7-5). After running unremarkably in three starts during the spring, Nureyev’s Dream looked like a different horse when tackling a six-furlong, $12,500 maiden claimer at Gulfstream on Nov. 13. Running for the first time off a six-month break, Nureyev’s Dream carved out the pace before settling for second place by half a length, earning a 68 Brisnet Speed rating.

Nureyev’s Dream will wear blinkers for the first time on Wednesday, a winning move 19% of the time for trainer Ralph Nicks. There isn’t a ton of pace in this field, so if Nureyev’s Dream shakes loose up front, he may prove impossible to run down.

If we key Nureyev’s Dream on top, then #3 Pacific Legend (7-2) becomes a logical choice to emphasize underneath. The consistent gelding has recorded half a dozen top-five finishers from eight starts over this track and class level, most recently coming home fourth (4 1/4 lengths behind Nureyev’s Dream) on Nov. 13.

#7 Adios Senor (5-1), runner-up in his debut for a $10,000 tag at Tampa Bay Downs during the spring, is the other obvious candidate for a top-five finish.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

$1 Super High 5: 2 with 3 with 1,7 with 1,7 with 4,5,6 ($6)
$1 Super High 5: 2 with 1,7 with 3 with 1,7 with 4,5,6 ($6)
$1 Super High 5: 2 with 3 with 1,7 with 4,5,6 with 1,7 ($6)
$1 Super High 5: 2 with 1,7 with 3 with 4,5,6 with 1,7 ($6)
Total: $24

Good luck!