Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Dec. 16

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Dec. 16 at Turf Paradise, Fair Grounds, and Turfway Park, along with a ticket for Turfway’s $32,685 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Turf Paradise.
• Turfway Park $3,000 Pick 5 Hit It and Split It: Hit the Pick 5 at Turfway Park (Races 1-5) to earn your share of a $3,000 bonus prize pool.

Picks and Plays

Turf Paradise: Race 3: $3,500 Starter Allowance (one mile on turf, 3:45 p.m. ET)

In a race without a single proven turf winner in the field, #2 Happy Happy Happy (2-1) looks like the most probable winner. The four-year-old filly has finished second in her last three starts over the Turf Paradise grass course, most recently falling a length short of victory in a $25,000/$20,000 allowance optional claimer.

Happy Happy Happy will face easier company on Thursday and should get the job done at a short price. #6 If You Want It (3-1), runner-up in an $8,000 starter optional claimer last month, is a logical choice for to complete the exacta.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Happy Happy Happy.

$10 to win on #2 Happy Happy Happy
$5 Exacta: 2 with 6
Total: $15

Fair Grounds: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 5:42 p.m. ET)

#7 Shishito (5-2) ran strongly in her debut over the Presque Isle Downs Tapeta track two months ago, rallying gamely to finish second by 1 1/4 lengths. Her reward was a competitive 76 Brisnet Speed rating.

As a daughter of Wootton Bassett out of the Montjeu mare Mondelice, Shishito is bred top and bottom to thrive on grass—in fact, half-brother Dubai Honour won the Qatar Prix Dollar (G2) and placed in the Champion S. (G1) on turf this year. Throw in the fact trainer Michal Stidham wins at a 21% rate with first-time grass starters, and Shishito looms as a logical favorite.

#3 My Sweetness (9-2) can garner runner-up honors.

$25 to win on #7 Shishito
$5 Exacta: 7 with 3
Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles, 8:14 p.m. ET)

#6 Catiche (3-1) showed plenty of promise in her debut sprinting seven furlongs over the Woodbine Tapeta course. After tracking the pace from third place, Catiche stayed on gamely to finish second with a competitive 73 Brisnet Speed rating.

As a daughter of Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Arrogate out of the Pulpit mare Sacristy, Catiche is bred to improve with maturity and relish stretching out in distance—half-sister Flor de La Mar ran second in the 1 1/16-mile Santa Anita Oaks (G1). Throw in the fact trainer Jonathan Thomas has gone 13-for-38 (34%) at Turfway since 2020, and Catiche looks tough to beat.

#2 Legerity (5-2), switching from dirt to Tapeta, is the other logical contender.

$25 to win on #6 Catiche
$5 Exacta: 6 with 2
Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 1: $32,685 Pick 5 carryover (6:15 p.m. ET)

Need a reason to play the Pick 5 at Turfway Park this Thursday? We can think of a few thousand—35,685, to be exact.

For starters, the 50-cent wager boasts a non-jackpot carryover of $32,685. This alone is reason enough to play, but throw in the Turfway Park $3,000 Pick 5 Hit It and Split It promotion from TwinSpires, and the wager becomes even more enticing. Who doesn’t want to play for bonus cash?

Adding to the excitement, Turfway also has a $4,887 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in Race 8 (post time 9:46 p.m. ET).

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the Pick 5 sequence, then assemble a ticket on a $36 budget:

Race 1: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 miles)

#8 Run With Grace (2-1) wasn’t disgraced in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Turfway last month, rallying from last place to finish fifth. But Run With Grace doesn’t have much tactical speed, so the more versatile #3 Leia Organa (5-1) and turf-to-synthetic switcher #5 Noble Enterprise (6-1) are worth including as backup.

Race 2: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs)

#6 Morethansoultitle (3-1) fired off three strong efforts over the Arlington Park synthetic track during the summer, breaking his maiden for a $6,250 claiming tag before finishing third at the $12,500 level and wiring a $4,000 event. Returning to synthetic should make Morethansoultitle dangerous for hot trainer Larry Rivelli (3-for-10, 30% so far this meet), although #5 Franco’s Team (8-5)—runner-up for a $7,500 tag at Turfway two weeks ago—also has the form lines to challenge.

Race 3: $15,000 Claiming (six furlongs)

There are many viable contenders in this ultra-competitive sprint. We’ll spread deep with #1 English Tide (9-2), #3 Southern Will (5-1), #4 Airwar (4-1), #6 Bugle Barry (9-2), #8 Bold Adventure (6-1), and #10 Z U At the Races (5-1).

Race 4: $8,000 Claiming (one mile)

#3 Inclusive (5-2) has spent most of his career competing over synthetic tracks, most recently finishing a close fourth in a $10,000 claimer at Gulfstream Park. He brings a bevy of competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the fold and should appreciate facing easier company at Turfway, where he boasts a solid 4-1-1-1 resume. Inclusive looks like a possible single under leading jockey Gerardo Corrales.

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles)

For reasons explained earlier, we’ll favor #6 Catiche (3-1) and #2 Legerity (5-2) in the final leg of the Pick 5.

50-cent Pick 5: 3,5,8 with 5,6 with 1,3,4,6,8,10 with 3 with 2,6 ($36)

Good luck!