Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Dec. 17

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Dec. 17 at Fair Grounds and Remington Park, along with a ticket for Turfway Park’s $12,435 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Remington Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Randwick (Australia).

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 5:11 p.m. ET)

#5 Ice Baby (5-2) produced an encouraging effort in her debut at Churchill Downs last month. The Brad Cox trainee settled well off a fast pace, then rallied steadily down the homestretch to finish third by 4 1/4 lengths.

This effort produced an 81 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest figure in Friday’s field, and there are reasons to believe Ice Baby will improve in her second run under colors. For one, Cox wins at a 26% rate with second-time starters. For another, Ice Baby is slated to race on Lasix for the first time, a 31% winning move for Cox.

Let’s bet Ice Baby to win and key her over #2 Awesome Samantha (7-2) and #7 Bourn (7-2) in the exacta.

$20 to win on #5 Ice Baby
$5 Exacta: 5 with 2,7 ($10)
Total: $30

Remington Park: Race 9: Useeit S. (one mile, 9:54 p.m. ET)

#4 Sunday Flashback (8-5) has been in strong form for hot trainer C. R. Trout, a 22% winner at Remington this meet. The daughter of Flashback has rattled off four consecutive victories at Remington Park, including the six-furlong Oklahoma Classics Distaff Sprint S.

Sunday Flashback made her route debut in a one-mile allowance on Nov. 23 at Remington, where she displayed tenacity to beat #6 Run Slewpy Run (3-1) by half a length. An identical finish may be in the offing on Friday, with Sunday Flashback using her tactical speed to again defeat Run Slewpy Run in the race to the finish line.

Taking advantage of the Exacta Insurance promotion, we’ll place a cold $10 exacta betting Sunday Flashback over Run Slewpy Run.

$10 Exacta: 4 with 6

Remington Park: Race 12: Remington Springboard Mile S. (one mile, 11:28 p.m. ET)

#5 Classic Moment (4-1) has shown promising form for trainer Steve Asmussen, a six-time winner of the Springboard Mile. The son of champion two-year-old Classic Empire finished a close third in his debut at Keeneland, then improved to win a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs with a solid 88 Brisnet Speed rating.

In the Springboard Mile, Classic Moment will race on Lasix for the first time, a 26% winning move for Asmussen. Throw in the presence of hot jockey Stewart Elliot (a 20% winner when teaming up with Asmussen), and Classic Moment looks ready to produce a competitive effort.

Let’s bet Classic Moment to win, then pursue the Exacta Insurance promotion and play Classic Moment on top of #9 Osbourne (6-1) in a cold $10 exacta.

$10 to win on #5 Classic Moment
$10 Exacta: 5 with 9
Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 8: $12,435 Super High 5 carryover (9:46 p.m. ET)

If you like betting five-figure, non-jackpot carryovers (and who doesn’t?), then you’ll want to assemble a ticket for Friday’s Super High 5 at Turfway Park. The $1 wager wraps up the card with a $12,435 prize pool on the table.

Of course, you should be warned, finding the winning combination won’t be easy. Race 8 just happens to be a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won three races, and the field looks difficult to decipher. No fewer than 13 horses have been entered (including one also-eligible), and many are exiting subpar performances. Sorting through the contenders will require some effort.

Since we have to start somewhere, we’ll start by favoring #6 Hidden Identity (5-2). The Mark Casse trainee is the morning line favorite for a reason—actually, a few reasons. The daughter of Old Forester brings strong Brisnet Speed ratings to the mix and is proven over Tapeta, most recently rallying to victory in a $5,000 claimer at Woodbine for non-winners of two races lifetime.

Hidden Identity looks like a perfect fit for Friday’s field and boasts a stretch-running style suitable for six-furlong sprints at Turfway. Casse is off to a hot start at Turfway, winning at a 25% rate, so I’m optimistic Hidden Identity is a filly worth keying on top.

Underneath, #1 Lucky Lizzie (7-2) is a logical choice. Trainer Wesley Ward has seen 50% of his starters crack the exacta at Turfway this meet, and Lucky Lizzie has every chance to keep that momentum going. The four-year-old filly enters off back-to-back wins over the Belterra Park turf course, most recently employing pace-tracking tactics to win a $12,500 claimer on Sept. 3.

Switching to Tapeta is the question mark for Lucky Lizzie, though she did finish second in a $5,000 claimer at Turfway last winter, and dropping back down from $12,500 to $5,000 company should help Lucky Lizzie produce a competitive effort under hot jockey Gerardo Corrales.

So here’s what we’ll do. We’ll key Hidden Identity on top. Then we’ll add Lucky Lizzie for second place. And finally, we’ll use #5 Unwanted Input (9-2), #8 Her Giant (5-1), #9 Temptation Eyes (12-1), #10 Hard to Access (15-1), and #12 Magic Lemons (12-1) underneath.

$1 Super High 5: 6 with 1 with 5,8,9,10,12 with 5,8,9,10,12 with 5,8,9,10,12 ($60)

Good luck!