Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Dec. 2

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $75 worth of picks and plays for Thursday, Dec. 2 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, plus suggested singles for the $68,498 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Turfway Park.
• $16,000 Hoosier Park Pick 4 Hit It and Split It: Make a winning early Pick 4 wager at Hoosier Park to win a share of $1,000. Offer applies to the early Pick 4 (Races 3-6) at Hoosier Park every Thursday from Aug. 19 through Dec. 2.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 6: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on turf, 4:40 p.m. ET)

#2 Yin Yang (2-1) won her debut racing one mile over the Ellis Park turf course, then overcame a stumbling start to finish second in the Juvenile Fillies S. at Kentucky Downs. Yin Yang’s turf prowess isn’t surprising since she’s a daughter of five-time Grade 1-winning grass star Point of Entry, but Yin Yang has also displayed promising form on dirt. She arrives at Fair Grounds off a pacesetting third-place finish in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Keeneland.

Yin Yang should appreciate returning to turf at Fair Grounds, and adding Lasix also stands to strengthen her chances, since trainer Brad Cox wins at a 31% rate with horses racing on Lasix for the first time. Throw in jockey Florent Geroux (a 27% winner at Fair Grounds last meet), and Yin Yang looms as a formidable favorite.

#4 Maxine Machine (3-1) and #6 Boxing Day (9-2) can battle to complete the exacta.

$20 to win on #2 Yin Yang
$5 Exacta: 2 with 4,6 ($10)
Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 7: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles, 5:11 p.m. ET)

#2 Trafalgar (4-5) is a heavy favorite after rallying to victory in a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, but it’s worth noting he was the beneficiary of a fast early/slow late race shape. There’s no guarantee Trafalgar will receive a similarly favorable setup while stretching out around two turns at Fair Grounds.

That’s why we’ll oppose Trafalgar with #3 Naval Aviator (7-2). The Cox trainee overcame a slow pace to rally and win his debut racing 1 1/8 miles at Keeneland, with next-out Fair Grounds maiden winner Walhalla among his beaten rivals.

Cox wins at a much higher rate with second-time starters than first-time starters, and Naval Aviator will add blinkers on Thursday, setting the stage for a competitive run under Geroux.

$20 to win on #3 Naval Aviator
$10 Exacta: 3 with 2
Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 7: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs, 9:16 p.m. ET)

#2 Two Sixtyone (3-1) was a force to reckon with at Turfway Park last winter, going 3-for-3 over the Tapeta track. Among her victories were a couple of allowance optional claimers dashing 6 1/2 furlongs,

Two Sixtyone hasn’t won since leaving Turfway, but overall, her form remains respectable. If you draw a line through her no-show effort in the Nov. 22 Mahoning Distaff S. on dirt (a surface over which she’s failed to crack the trifecta from four starts), Two Sixtyone hasn’t run a bad race this year and looms as an obvious contender while returning to her favorite track.

Longshot #6 Docs Seven (15-1), with her 3-2-1-0 record on synthetic, can complete the exacta at a nice price. But our primary play will be a $10 win bet on Two Sixtyone, in order to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back offer.

$10 to win on #2 Two Sixtyone
$5 Exacta: 2 with 6
Total: $15

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct, Race 4: $68,498 Pick 6 carryover (1:46 p.m. ET)

If you enjoy betting the New York circuit (and quite frankly, who doesn’t?), you’ll be happy to know there’s a $68,498 carryover up for grabs in Thursday’s $1 Pick 6 at Aqueduct.

Planning to play along? Here are a couple of noteworthy runners to get your tickets started:

Best single: Race 4: #4 Radio Days (2-5)

Seven juvenile fillies have been entered in this seven-furlong $80,000 allowance optional claimer. But from all appearances, Radio Days is a short-priced standout.

A daughter of hot young sire Gun Runner, Radio Days delivered a strong showing in her debut against maiden special weight company on Oct. 31 at Belmont Park. After settling off the pace, Radio Days rallied down the homestretch to score by 1 1/2 lengths with a sharp 94 Brisnet Speed rating. For comparison, none of her rivals in Thursday’s field has earned a figure higher than 82.

McGaughey isn’t known for saddling ready-to-win first-time starters, so the fact Radio Days delivered a winning effort on debut is significant. She’s eligible to improve in her second start, and it’s worth noting her half-brother Bowies Hero won the Del Mar Juvenile Turf S. at age two before maturing to win Grade 1 races at ages four and five. It’s safe to say Radio Days has plenty of upside.

Live price play: Race 5: #10 Red Fortress (5-1)

Most folks figure to favor #7 Buckortwo (5-2) and #5 Sandrone (3-1) in this six-furlong turf maiden special weight for New York-bred juveniles. They’ve twice been separated by noses when placing second and third in similar races on the New York circuit, including a six-furlong maiden dash at Aqueduct on Nov. 14.

But what about #10 Red Fortress (5-1) as an alternative? Red Fortress met Buckortwo and Sandrone in a six-furlong turf sprint at Belmont on Oct. 17. Making his debut, the Linda Rice trainee broke slowly before rallying steadily to finish fourth, earning a solid 79 Brisnet Speed rating while finishing about 3 1/2 lengths behind Buckortwo and Sandrone.

Rice wins at a lofty 31% rate with second-time starters, so if Red Fortress breaks cleanly on Thursday, he can step forward and vie for victory under hot jockey Jose Lezcano. Don’t leave him off your tickets.

Good luck!