Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Dec. 20

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Dec. 20 at Fair Grounds and Mahoning Valley, including a ticket for Mahoning’s $11,381 Pick 4 carryover.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 2: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 2:35 p.m. ET)

#1 Aw Shucks (9-5) has been in hot form since being claimed by high-percentage trainer Karl Broberg. After finishing second in a $5,000 claimer on Nov. 6, the six-year-old dropped into a $5,000 claimer for Louisiana-breds on Dec. 9 and won by two lengths.

Aw Shucks will stick to the $5,000 claiming level on Monday while picking up hot jockey Reylu Gutierrez, a 20% winner at Fair Grounds this meet. Aw Shucks brings sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the mix, so if he runs his typical race, he can lead the way home over the class-dropping #6 Holy Spirit (3-1).

$20 to win on #1 Aw Shucks
$10 Exacta: 1 with 6
Total: $30

Mahoning Valley: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 4:02 p.m. ET)

#8 Ol’ Ned (6-5) has already run two strong races over this track, distance, and class level. In his Nov. 16 debut, the two-year-old gelding ran second by 2 1/2 lengths, earning a 68 Brisnet Speed rating. Then on Dec. 4, Ol’ Ned finished second again, beaten only half a length while earning a 67 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of Ol’ Ned’s rivals have earned a figure higher than 61, so it’s safe to call Ol’ Ned the fastest horse on paper. Unless one of the first-time starters steps up with a big run on debut, Ol’ Ned should cruise to a comfortable victory in his third run under colors.

#9 Venture On (6-1) can complete the exacta.

$25 to win on #8 Ol’ Ned
$5 Exacta: 8 with 9
Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles, 5:05 p.m. ET)

#4 Hidden Wonder (8-5) essentially ran a winning race in her debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs. After dropping eight lengths off the early pace, Hidden Wonder rallied gamely to finish second by just a half-length.

As a daughter of Curlin out of a Tapit mare, Hidden Wonder is bred to thrive while stretching out around two turns. Throw in the fact high-percentage trainer Brad Cox wins at a 27% rate with second-time starters (well above his 15% win rate with debuting runners this year), and Hidden Wonder has the appearance of a deserving favorite.

#5 Poronui (5-2), who placed twice running long against maiden special weight company at Keeneland, can complete a cold exacta.

$20 to win on #4 Hidden Wonder
$10 Exacta: 4 with 5
Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Mahoning Valley, Race 5: $11,381 Pick 4 carryover (2:36 p.m. ET)

It’s not every day one sees a Pick 4 carryover up for grabs. But Mahoning Valley is kicking off the racing week with a rare exception: an enticing $11,381 non-jackpot carryover in the 50-cent Pick 4.

A competitive sequence spanning Races 5-8 is on tap. The Pick 4 contains 35 horses (averaging 8.75 per race) and 5,292 possible outcomes before scratches. It would cost a hefty $2,646 to play them all.

Nevertheless, we’ll aim to hit the wager for less than $10, in order to yield a respectable return on investment if the Pick 4 produces chalky results.

Ready to begin? Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence:

Race 5: $5,000 Claiming (one mile)

There are a lot of ways to go in this competitive heat, but rather than spread deep, we’ll try to take a relative stand with the class-dropping allowance runners #1 Uyeda (7-2) and #8 Zacapa Run (20-1) plus recent $5,000 claiming winner #7 Determinator (5-1).

Race 6: Allowance (six furlongs)

#2 Sharks Cove (2-1) has hit the board many times over this class level while posting competitive Brisnet Speed ratings, but his 21-1-5-4 lifetime resume indicates he tends to settle for the minor awards more often than not. Therefore, we’ll include #5 Centsofwander (5-2)—a route runner cutting back in distance—as backup.

Race 7: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs)

#5 Ananroad (8-5) has posted sharp Brisnet Speed ratings while facing tougher company. But the bay gelding tends to be a feast-or-famine type—in nine of his last 10 starts, he’s either won (three times) or run off the board by double-digit margins (six times). Ananroad must be respected since his A-game is good enough to win this, but we’ll also use #7 Tizway’s Wild Son (4-1) and #8 Diamonds Enjoy (6-1).

Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs)

For reasons outlined earlier, #8 Ol’ Ned (6-5) is a deserving favorite and a viable single to conclude the Pick 4.

50-cent Pick 4: 1,7,8 with 2,5 with 5,7,8 with 8 ($9)

Good luck!