Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Dec. 21

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $75 worth of picks and plays for Tuesday, Dec. 21 at Mahoning Valley and Parx Racing, along with suggested singles for the $21,271 Pick 5 carryover at Turf Paradise.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Mahoning Valley.
• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta tickets.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: Allowance (one mile, 12:45 p.m. ET)

#6 Grins n’ Wins (5-2) has cracked the trifecta in four straight starts at Mahoning Valley, including a six-furlong sprint over this class level on Dec. 7. On that occasion, Grins n’ Wins tracked a quick pace before staying on nicely to finish second by two lengths, earning a solid 80 Brisnet Speed rating.

Grins n’ Wins has won racing one mile in the past and figures to secure a favorable, forwardly placed trip while stretching out in distance. Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Grins n’ Wins, then key her over #8 Jettin Pegasus (2-1) in the exacta.

$10 to win on #6 Grins n’ Wins
$5 Exacta: 6 with 8
Total: $15

Mahoning Valley: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 1:12 p.m. ET)

#7 Lady Fortune (8-5) has shown a bit of promise in two starts against maiden optional claiming company at Woodbine. She ran particularly well in her debut at the $25,000 level, rallying after a slow start to finish third with an encouraging 72 Brisnet Speed rating.

Lady Fortune will drop into the Ohio-bred ranks at Mahoning Valley, where none of her rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 68. If she handles the switch from Tapeta to dirt (her pedigree suggests it won’t be an issue), she can cruise to victory for trainer Richard Zielinski, a 25% winner with shippers.

Stretch-running #4 Quality Bet (3-1) can rally to complete the exacta, but our first play will be a $10 win bet on Lady Fortune, in order to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back offer.

$10 to win on #7 Lady Fortune
$10 Exacta: 7 with 4
Total: $20

Parx Racing: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs, 3:19 p.m. ET)

#2 Don Giuseppe (2-1) has cracked the trifecta in his first three starts against open maiden special weight company at Parx, posting sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 73, 77, and 71. The two-year-old gelding has tactical speed and will be tough to beat while dropping into the Pennsylvania-bred ranks, where none of his rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 69.

The unraced #6 Just Divine (9-2) can complete the exacta. Conditioned by hot trainer John Servis (a 23% winner at Parx), Just Divine is a son of Divining Rod, who sires 22% winners from first-time starters.

$30 to win on #2 Don Giuseppe
$10 Exacta: 2 with 6
Total: $40

Carryover Watch

Turf Paradise, Race 5: $21,271 Pick 5 carryover (4:24 p.m. ET)

What’s better than a four-figure, non-jackpot carryover early in the racing week? A five-figure version, that’s what. Tuesday can be a quiet day for non-jackpot carryovers at U.S. Thoroughbred racetracks, but Turf Paradise has gone against the grain by tossing up a $21,271 prize pool for Tuesday’s Pick 5.

The 50-cent wager spans Races 5-9, a series containing 39 entries (averaging 7.8 per race) and 27,648 possible outcomes before scratches.

Planning to play along? Here are a couple of non-favored singles to consider:

Race 5: $20,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on turf)

Through the years, seven-year-old gelding #2 Giant Payday (5-2) has won his fair share of significant turf races, including a couple of stakes. And since transitioning to Turf Paradise under the care of trainer Miguel Jimenez, Giant Payday has turned back the clock, compiling a 2-for-2 record over the local course.

Giant Payday most recently unleashed a strong finish to win a $25,000/$20,000 allowance optional claimer by half a length, earning a sharp 86 Brisnet Speed rating. There’s a fair amount of speed in Tuesday’s field, so if Giant Payday gets a fair pace to chase, he can rally to victory under hot jockey Lindey Wade.

Race 8: $3,000 Claiming (six furlongs)

Many of the entrants in this low-level claiming dash enter off disappointing performances, so we’ll take a stand with #1 Red Nova (7-2), who looks like a good fit for this class level.

Granted, Red Nova finished sixth in her most recent start. But that was an $8,000/$6,250 claimer in which Red Nova dueled for the lead before fading in the final furlong. Two starts back, she wired a $3,500 claiming sprint at Turf Paradise by 3 1/2 lengths, earning a solid 72 Brisnet Speed rating.

Dropping back down the class ladder should make Red Nova dangerous at a solid price. Speed is dominant in six-furlong dirt sprints at Turf Paradise, so Red Nova’s pacesetting style is an asset. If she wins as a single, we’ll be well on our way to cashing a solid Pick 5 payoff.

Good luck!