Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Dec. 22

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Dec. 22 at Parx Racing and Tampa Bay Downs, along with tickets for Gulfstream Park’s $8,334 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Happy Valley (Hong Kong).

Picks and Plays

Parx Racing: Race 2: $12,500 Claiming (seven furlongs, 12:37 p.m. ET)

#9 Portal One (6-5) has been on a roll in recent starts. The three-year-old gelding has rattled off three consecutive victories, most recently wiring a $12,500 claimer over six furlongs at Parx. This effort was flattered when the runner-up came back to dominate his next start against similar company.

Portal One has lots of tactical speed and brings improving Brisnet Speed ratings to the fold, stamping the son of Mineshaft as a deserving favorite. #6 Longtail (4-1) can complete the exacta, but our primary play will be a $10 win bet on Portal One, in order to pursue the Midweek Bet Back promotion.

$10 to win on #9 Portal One
$5 Exacta: 9 with 6
Total: $15

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 4:18 p.m. ET)

Since 2016, trainer Todd Pletcher has gone 19-for-48 (40%) saddling experienced runners in dirt routes at Tampa Bay Downs. This powerful stat points toward the Pletcher trainees #3 Complete Agenda (5-2) and #5 Pioneer of Medina (2-1) as logical threats in this two-turn test for juveniles.

Complete Agenda ran evenly to finish fifth in his debut racing one mile at Gulfstream Park; as a son of Curlin, he’s eligible to improve while stretching out in distance. Meanwhile, Pioneer of Medina exits a third-place finish over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta track, for which he earned a sharp 85 Brisnet Speed rating.

First-time starter #6 Quantum Theory (4-1), racing for the hot barn of Christophe Clement, is another key contender. Since 2016, Clement has compiled a stellar 21-8-4-4 (38%) record debuting horses on dirt at Tampa Bay Downs. However, his record with such runners in routes stands at 10-1-4-3 (10%), suggesting Quantum Theory is more likely to secure a minor award than visit the winner’s circle.

If we add #1 Caninero (7-2) to the bottom of our tickets, we’ll have every chance to hit the trifecta and superfecta.

$3 Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5,6 with 1,3,5,6 ($24)
$1 Superfecta: 3,5 with 3,5,6 with 1,3,5,6 with 1,3,5,6 ($8)
Total: $32

Parx Racing: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 2:52 p.m. ET)

Since 2016, trainer Michael Trombetta has compiled a 2-for-6 (33%) record debuting juveniles on dirt at Parx Racing. This encouraging stat indicates first-time starter #2 Keeping the Edge (4-1) is worth playing on Wednesday.

A son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Super Saver, Keeping the Edge has put together a solid work tab at Fair Hill, capped off by a half mile in :49 2/5. Wednesday’s field doesn’t appear overly deep at first glance, so we’ll take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer and place a $10 win bet on Keeping the Edge.

#5 Mr Sandman (3-1), runner-up over this track and class level on Nov. 24, can complete the exacta.

$10 to win on #2 Keeping the Edge
$5 Exacta: 2 with 5
Total: $15

Carryover Watch

Gulfstream Park, Race 1: $8,334 Super High 5 carryover (12:30 p.m. ET)

Looking for a stiff handicapping challenge? Look no further than the Wednesday opener at Gulfstream Park, which features an $8,334 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The race in question is a $35,000 maiden claimer for juveniles racing one mile and 70 yards over the Tapeta track—not exactly a recipe for a predictable outcome. But we’ll endeavor to hit the wager on a ~$50 budget by keying the unraced #6 Sonic Kitten (7-2) on top.

A son of two-time leading sire Kitten’s Joy (who sires 14% winners from first-time starters), Sonic Kitten is conditioned by hot trainer Saffie Joseph, a 22% winner at Gulfstream so far this meet. While some trainers win at low percentages with horses debuting over one mile or farther, Joseph strikes at a solid 16% rate with such runners. Even better, Joseph has compiled a solid 2-for-13 (15%) record debuting juveniles in Tapeta routes at Gulfstream.

Sonic Kitten has put together a lengthy work tab and will be guided on Wednesday by jockey Luis Saez, a 27% winner this meet. Taking all of these factors together, Sonic Kitten looks like a solid win candidate at a fair price.

Fellow first-time starter #2 Bluto’s Candy (3-1) is another logical contender. As a son of Twirling Candy (who sires 19% debut winners) out of a mare by Animal Kingdom, Twirling Candy has the pedigree to shine on Tapeta. He’s been training nicely for hot trainer Danny Gargan, most notably clocking a bullet half mile in :48 2/5 at Palm Meadows, so a competitive effort figures to be in the offing.

#4 Fishing for Fun (5-1), #5 Food Bank Helper (4-1), #7 Millennium Condo (8-1), and #8 Cadet Corps (9-2) have all run well over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta and must be used underneath. We’ll round out our tickets with #3 Grand Player (10-1), whose trainer—Victor Barboza—strikes at an 18% rate with runners debuting in maiden claimers.

$1 Super High 5: 6 with 2 with 4,5,7 with 4,5,7,8 with 3,4,5,7,8 ($27)
$1 Super High 5: 6 with 4,5,7 with 2 with 4,5,7,8 with 3,4,5,7,8 ($27)
Total: $54

Good luck!