Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Dec. 23

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Dec. 23 at Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, and Turfway Park, including tickets for Turfway’s $3,117 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Turfway Park.

Picks and Plays

Gulfstream Park: Race 6: $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (six furlongs, 2:58 p.m. ET)

There are plenty of first-time starters in the maiden sprint for juvenile fillies. But the experienced #7 Rufa Red Knot (9-2) may have the best shot at victory.

Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, Rufa Red Knot has shown promise in two starts against fellow Florida-breds. She actually debuted in a stakes, finishing third in the FTBOA Florida Sire Desert Vixen S. sprinting six furlongs at Gulfstream. Then she tackled a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream, where she carved out the pace before weakening in the final furlong to finish second.

Cutting back to six furlongs should only help Rufa Red Knot, who has posted triple-digit Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings in her first two starts. If Rufa Red Knot shakes loose up front, she can dash home on top over #2 Holding Court (4-1) and #9 With Liberty (7-2).

• $20 to win on #7 Rufa Red Knot
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 2,9 ($10)
  Total: $30

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 3:48 p.m. ET)

Since 2016, Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has compiled an excellent 11-3-6-0 record saddling two-year-olds on dirt at Tampa Bay Downs, which equates to a 27% win rate and an 82% in-the-money percentage. The takeaway? Pletcher’s #6 Provocateur (2-1) is worth betting in this maiden sprint for juveniles.

Eighth in his Oct. 10 debut running long over the Belmont Park turf course, Provocateaur performed better in a six-furlong dirt sprint on Nov. 6 at Belmont, pressing the pace before weakening late to finish fourth. The 78 Brisnet Speed rating he posted tops Thursday’s field.

Provocateur may find the competition a bit easier at Tampa, giving the $600,000 yearling acquisition an opportunity to visit the winner’s circle under hot jockey Antonio Gallardo. We’ll bet Provocateur to win, then throw in a small exacta using #10 Surpassing (5-1) for second place.

• $20 to win on #6 Provocateur
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 10
  Total: $25

Turfway Park: Race 6: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs, 8:46 p.m. ET)

Whereas many of the juvenile fillies in this allowance sprint are exiting claiming races, #5 Tasweya (6-5) is exiting a stakes. Granted, she finished well off the board in the 1 1/16-mile Tepin S. over the Aqueduct turf last month, coming home ninth. But the daughter of Frosted was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths after carving out the pace, and she earned a solid 76 Brisnet Speed rating in the process.

Tasweya had previously won her debuting dashing five furlongs on grass, earning a 74 Brisnet Speed rating. Cutting back in distance may help her chances, so if Tasweya handles the switch to Tapeta on Thursday, she can sprint to victory over #2 Purity (9-2) and #4 Delightful Breeze (5-1).

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Tasweya.

• $10 to win on #10 Tasweya
• $5 Exacta: 10 with 2,4 ($10)
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 8: $3,117 Super High 5 carryover (9:46 p.m. ET)

Any racing day with a non-jackpot carryover on the table is a good day to play. That’s why we’re keen to review the Thursday finale at Turfway Park, which boasts a $3,117 prize pool in the $1 Super High 5.

As usual, a challenging wager lies ahead. Race 8 is a $7,500 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won three races. The distance is one mile on Tapeta, and 11 horses have been entered, which equates to 55,440 possible outcomes.

So how should we bet the Super High 5? We’re going to recommend an outside-the-box approach. It might seem risky to key a double-digit longshot on top, but #5 Narrows Bridge (10-1) offers a lot of appeal at a nice price.

Granted, Narrows Bridge hasn’t been in the best form as of late. Her last four starts on dirt and turf have seen Narrows Bridge lose by double-digit margins every time. But she’s also been facing tougher company (even tackling a couple of $12,500 claimers), and she’s eligible to improve while switching to Tapeta.

Indeed, Narrows Bridge was sharp over the Turfway Tapeta last winter. Over the course of four starts, Narrows Bridge never missed the trifecta, most notably winning a $7,500 claimer racing one mile. Along the way, she posted competitive Brisnet Speed ratings in the 70-74 range. Who’s to say she won’t recapture this level of form while returning to her seemingly preferred footing?

Underneath Narrows Bridge, #1 Queen Louise (5-2) is one to emphasize. Runner-up against $10,000 claiming company over the Churchill Downs dirt last month, Queen Louise has cracked the trifecta in three of her four starts at Turfway and brings a bevy of sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the fold.

#3 Kitten Rocks (7-2), sixth in her Turfway debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over this class level, can challenge for the minor awards while stretching out in distance under leading jockey Gerardo Corrales. Others worth including are #7 Taranta (10-1), victorious for a $15,000 tag at Mountaineer during the summer, and #10 Neversaynoletsgo (8-1), who rallied to win a $5,000 claimer at Turfway last time out.

Turfway Park Super High 5 Ticket:

• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 1 with 3,10 with 3,7,10 with ALL ($28)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 1 with 3,10 with ALL with 3,7,19 ($28)
  Total: $56

Good luck!