Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Dec. 3

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Dec. 3 at Fair Grounds, Oaklawn Park, and Turfway Park, plus suggested singles for lucrative carryovers at Aqueduct and Golden Gate Fields.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Oaklawn Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Rosehill (Australia).

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 3:35 p.m. ET)

#4 Mr. Cunningham (3-1) ran well in his first two starts against maiden special weight company over the Delaware Park dirt track, finishing second each time while earning respectable Brisnet Speed ratings. The Michael Stidham trainee has since been gelded and is eligible to improve while returning from a three-month layoff at Fair Grounds.

There are a couple of other encouraging stats in Mr. Cunningham’s corner. Stidham wins at a 22% rate with horses trying turf for the first time and has compiled an excellent 12-3-2-1 (25%) record saddling juveniles in grass races at Fair Grounds since 2020.

Let’s bet Mr. Cunningham to win, then play him over #3 Matthewsthirtyfour (5-2) in a cold exacta.

$25 to win on #4 Mr. Cunningham
$5 Exacta: 4 with 3
Total: $30

Oaklawn Park: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 4:19 p.m. ET)

#5 Roll Baby (5-1) wasn’t disgraced in her debut sprinting six furlongs against maiden special weight company at Keeneland. After dueling for the early lead, Roll Baby weakened through the final furlong to finish fifth against a promising field including next-out winner Dame Jovial.

A daughter of leading sire Into Mischief, Roll Baby is eligible to improve while shipping to Oaklawn, where she’ll race on Lasix for the first time. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen strikes at a 23% rate with second-time starters, so we’ll definitely bet Roll Baby to win. Then we’ll take advantage of the Exacta Insurance promotion and place a cold $10 exacta keying Roll Baby over logical favorite #7 Hypersport (2-1).

$20 to win on #5 Roll Baby
$10 Exacta: 5 with 7
Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 6: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile, 8:46 p.m. ET)

#7 Sugoi (4-1) was kind to his supporters in 2020, compiling a 5-for-9 record while posting victories on dirt, turf, and synthetic. Three of his wins came at double-digit odds, so blindly betting Sugoi every time he ran would have been massively profitable.

Sugoi has only run once in 2021, finishing a strong fourth in the one-mile Opening Verse S. at Churchill Downs behind future Fourstardave H. (G1) runner-up Set Piece. It’s unclear whether Sugoi will be primed for a peak performance while returning from a layoff at Turfway, but trainer Michael Tomlinson wins at a 30% rate with horses transitioning from turf to synthetic, and Sugoi’s Brisnet Speed ratings are a strong fit against this field.

Capitalizing on the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Sugoi and call it a day.

$10 to win on #7 Sugoi

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct, Race 5: $288,843 Pick 6 carryover (1:42 p.m. ET)

Heads up, bettors! The $1 Pick 6 at Aqueduct has gone unclaimed for two straight racing days, which means a massive $288,843 carryover is on the table for Friday’s sequence.

Constructing a winning ticket won’t be easy. Four of the six races have drawn full fields stuffed with also-eligible and main-track only entrants. Finding a single might be akin to finding a needle in a haystack, though Race 7—a six-furlong, $45,000 allowance optional claimer—looks more manageable with only seven entrants to analyze.

The morning line favorite is #7 Gold Panda (8-5), and if you’re looking for a single, he might be the one. The three-year-old gelding won maiden and allowance sprints at Saratoga during the summer, counting next-out winner #6 Big Bobby (3-1) among his beaten rivals. Furthermore, Gold Panda wasn’t disgraced in a 6 1/2-furlong, $45,000 allowance optional claimer at Belmont last month, carving out the pace before settling for second by just half a length.

Gold Panda brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the fold and should enjoy a favorable forwardly placed trip. Outside posts have performed well in six-furlong sprints at Aqueduct this meet, so Gold Panda—while not necessarily unbeatable—looks like a horse to count on.

Golden Gate Fields, Race 5: $32,360 Pick 5 carryover (5:43 p.m. ET)

Did you know there are two non-jackpot carryovers up for grabs on Friday at Golden Gate Fields? The first is an $11,583 Super High 5 prize pool up for grabs in Race 1 (post time 3:45 p.m. ET). The second (and more lucrative) carryover is the $32,360 pot enhancing the Late Pick 5.

Several of the Pick 5 races contain logical favorites, but the best candidate for singling might be #2 Silver Claim (8-5) in Race 8, a five-furlong turf allowance. The five-year-old gelding has won six of his last seven starts, most recently wiring a five-furlong allowance over the Golden Gate Fields Tapeta track.

Silver Claim is switching to turf for Friday’s heat, but the transition shouldn’t be an issue—in his lone previous start on grass, the son of Acclamation smashed a $4,000 starter allowance sprinting five furlongs at Golden Gate by four lengths. If Silver Charm runs his typical race on Friday, he can dash to the lead and never look back at a short price.

Good luck!