Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Dec. 8

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $65 worth of picks and plays for Wednesday, Dec. 8 at Parx Racing, Tampa Bay Downs, and Mahoning Valley, including a trio of exacta bets.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Mahoning Valley and Parx Racing.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Happy Valley (Hong Kong).

Picks and Plays

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 2: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 12:50 p.m. ET)

#5 Little Miss Sassy (6-5) has been competing with aplomb against maiden special weight company at Delaware Park. The daughter of Kantharos has finished second in each of her last two starts, most recently throwing down an 81 Brisnet Speed rating.

Considering none of Little Miss Sassy’s rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 64, the morning line favorite looks tough to beat while dropping in class. Keep in mind, trainer Gerald Bennett wins at a 39% rate with horses descending from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company.

Longshot #3 Lady in Heels (10-1), who carved out a fast pace in her debut at Presque Isle Downs, has a chance to complete the exacta for hot trainer Maria Bowersock.

$25 to win on #5 Little Miss Sassy
$5 Exacta: 5 with 3
Total: $30

Mahoning Valley: Race 5: $4,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 2:36 p.m. ET)

#6 Empty Talk (5-2) hasn’t missed the trifecta in his last four starts, including three straight $4,000 claimers at Mahoning. After posting a 5 1/2-length victory on Nov. 8 (earning a sharp 82 Brisnet Speed rating), the six-year-old gelding rallied gamely to finish second behind a next-out winner on Nov. 23.

Empty Talk is versatile in terms of running style and will be guided on Wednesday by hot jockey Sonny Leon, a 52% winner when teaming up with similarly hot trainer Elliot Sullivan. Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Empty Talk, then key him over #2 Red Blue and True (5-1) in the exacta.

$10 to win on #6 Empty Talk
$5 Exacta: 6 with 2
Total: $15

Parx Racing: Race 9: Allowance (one mile, 4:02 p.m. ET)

#3 Caribbean (6-1) consistently runs fast on the Brisnet Speed rating scale—he’s posted figures in the 90-95 range in six of his last seven starts. The pacesetting son of champion sprinter Speightstown was last seen dominating a $40,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn Park, leading all the way to score by 5 3/4 lengths.

Caribbean hasn’t run since March, but he looms as the only clear speed horse in Wednesday’s field, so there’s a good chance he’ll secure an uncontested lead. From there, I’m willing to bet Caribbean can spring a surprise against the improving Greenwood Cup (G3) winner #8 Magic Michael (9-5).

Capitalizing on the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Caribbean before boxing him in the exacta with Magic Michael.

$10 to win on #3 Caribbean
$5 Exacta box: 3,8 ($10)
Total: $20

Good luck!