Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Dec. 9

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Dec. 9 at Aqueduct and Fair Grounds, along with tickets for Turfway Park’s $5,079 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Aqueduct.

Picks and Plays

Aqueduct: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 12:50 p.m. ET)

#5 Wicked Lady (2-1) threw down a sharp 78 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing third in a six-furlong sprint over this class level at Belmont Park last month. The Kenny McPeek trainee settled a couple lengths off the early tempo before staying on nicely down the homestretch.

McPeek doesn’t typically crank his juveniles to win on debut, so Wicked Lady is eligible to improve in her second run under colors. Even a repeat of her debut performance might be sufficient to reach the winner’s circle, considering the par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Thursday’s conditions is 78.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Wicked Lady, then bet her over #1 Caragate (5-2) and #2 Doc Doc Rock (7-2) in the exacta and trifecta.

$10 to win on #5 Wicked Lady
$3 Exacta: 5 with 1,2 ($6)
$2 Trifecta: 5 with 1,2 with 1,2 ($4)
Total: $20

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $5,000 Claiming (one mile and 70 yards, 3:07 p.m. ET)

#3 Musada (5-2) is the morning-line favorite in this claiming sprint for Louisiana-bred non-winners of two races lifetime. But the five-year-old gelding hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since his debut in August 2018, and he hasn’t cracked the trifecta in his last five runs.

Rather than favor Musada, we’ll take a chance with the lightly-raced #2 Cryptorithm (3-1), who has only run five times. The son of Algorithms hasn’t missed the exacta in two starts running long on dirt and enters off a victory in an open $5,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Evangeline Downs, where he beat a next-out winner and posted a 68 Brisnet Speed rating.

Cryptorithm will drop blinkers for his first start against winners, and squaring off against fellow Louisiana-breds should improve his chances. We’ll bet Cryptorithm to win and key him over Musada in the exacta.

$20 to win on #2 Cryptorithm
$10 Exacta: 2 with 3
Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 5: $15,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 4:09 p.m. ET)

#4 Citizen West (5-2) appears perfectly spotted for victory in this $15,000 claimer. Whereas none of his rivals has earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 80, Citizen West has posted three 90+ figures, including a 95 when dominating a $12,500 maiden claimer at Gulfstream Park.

Citizen West arrives at Fair Grounds off a runner-up effort in a $20,000 claimer at Gulfstream, where he carved out a quick pace before settling for second place with a 90 Brisnet Speed rating. He looms as the “speed of the speed” in Thursday’s small field, so if Citizen West runs his typical race, his rivals are probably running for second place.

#1 Citadel (7-2) and #5 Cypriano (3-1) can battle for the minor awards.

$10 Exacta: 4 with 1,5 ($20)
$5 Trifecta: 4 with 1,5 with 1,5 ($10)
Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 8: $5,079 Super High 5 carryover (9:46 p.m. ET)

The first four days of racing at the Turfway Park Holiday Meet have passed without anyone assembling a winning Super High 5 ticket. As a result, when racing resumes on Thursday, the $1 wager will boast a $5,079 non-jackpot carryover.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 8, a $15,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. With 14 entries (including two also-eligibles), constructing a winning wager will be extremely difficult.

But since we have to start somewhere, we might as well begin with the only horse to have cracked the 70 Brisnet Speed rating plateau: #2 Devilly (3-1). The daughter of Noble Mission threw down a 77 in her debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the Ellis Park turf course, closing ground gamely from a few lengths off the pace to finish second by a head.

Devilly hasn’t fired in two subsequent starts on dirt, but she’s eligible to bounce back while trying Tapeta. Dropping in class from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company can also help her chances—trainer Eddie Kenneally wins at a solid 19% rate when making this move. Throw in hot jockey Joe Talamo (a 24% winner this meet), and Devilly looks like a horse to key on top.

There are plenty of fillies to consider using underneath Devilly, including morning-line favorite #6 Gold Spinner (9-5). The daughter of Hard Spun ran second in her debut over this class level at Belterra Park, earning a respectable 61 Brisnet Speed rating. She’s trained sharply at Turfway Park and hails from the barn of high-percentage trainer Wesley Ward, a 38% winner saddling juveniles at Turfway since 2016.

For the remaining slots of our tickets, we’ll use #1 Jamaican Traffic (10-1), #3 All for Show (15-1), #4 Iggy Bigs (10-1), #5 Sweet Valeria (15-1), #7 High Meadows (10-1), #8 Hideki (8-1), and #9 Simply Complicated (15-1) in varying strengths.

$1 Super High 5: 2 with 6 with 7,8,9 with 7,8,9 with 1,3,4,5,7,8,9 ($30)
$1 Super High 5: 2 with 7,8,9 with 6 with 7,8,9 with 1,3,4,5,7,8,9 ($30)
Total: $60

Good luck!