Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for July 23

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, July 23 at Del Mar, Ellis Park, and Saratoga, along with a trio of singles to use across a bevy of carryovers at Arlington Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Saratoga Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Saratoga. Offer must be unlocked each day of the meet; see offers page for details.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Rosehill (Australia).

Picks and Plays

Del Mar: Race 4: $62,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile, 8:30 p.m. ET)

#1 Order and Law (4-1) has been something of a winning machine in recent starts, claiming victory in three of his last four runs. All three of those wins came over Friday’s class level, including a decisive triumph racing 1 1/16 miles on the Santa Anita main track last fall.

Order and Law kicked off his 2021 campaign with a gutsy gate-to-wire triumph racing one mile on the Santa Anita lawn. He figures to handle the return to dirt just fine, especially after breezing a quick five furlongs over the Del Mar main track in :59 4/5 last Sunday.

Let’s bet Order and Law to win, then play him over logical favorite #2 Bold Endeavor (8-5) in a cold exacta.

$20 to win on #1 Order and Law
$10 Exacta: 1 with 2 ($10)
Total: $30

Ellis Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 3:42 p.m. ET)

#8 Atoka (3-1) has really come to hand since cutting back in distance for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. The four-year-old son of Union Rags has finished second in his last two starts against maiden special weight company at Churchill Downs, including one effort where he came home behind next-out Saratoga allowance winner Beau Liam and ahead of next-out maiden winner Absolute Chaos.

Atoka may find the competition at Ellis Park a bit easier, setting the stage for a breakthrough victory. Lukas is off to a sharp start at Ellis Park, compiling a 12-2-2-0 (17%) record, and Atoka’s Brisnet Speed ratings look competitive.

#7 Jennings (8-5), runner-up in his debut at Churchill Downs last month, can complete the exacta under hot jockey Brian Hernandez.

$20 to win on #8 Atoka
$10 Exacta: 8 with 7
Total: $30

Saratoga: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 1:05 p.m. ET)

This maiden sprint for juveniles is restricted to horses who brought a final bid of $45,000 or less at auction. Eight of the nine entrants are unraced, and they’ll have to be sharp to beat the experienced #8 Buckingham Prince (7-5), who looms as a formidable favorite.

Conditioned by hot trainer Norm Casse (a 23% winner this year), Buckingham Prince finished fifth in his debut against maiden special weight company at Churchill Downs, behind next-out winners Gunite and Roger McQueen. Then, in a similar event at Ellis Park, Buckingham Prince carved out the pace before finishing second by a nose, earning a strong 85 Brisnet Speed rating.

Buckingham Prince’s close defeat was flattered when distant third-place finisher Baytown Warrior returned to dominate his next start. If Buckingham Prince replicates this effort at Saratoga, he can romp home on top at a short price.

Taking aim at the Saratoga Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Buckingham Prince, then play him over #6 Good Skate (5-1) in a small exacta.

$10 to win on #8 Buckingham Prince
$5 Exacta: 8 with 6
Total: $15

Carryover Watch

Arlington Park, Race 1: $13,414 Pick 8 carryover (3:25 p.m. ET)
Arlington Park, Race 2: $2,960 Pick 7 carryover (3:51 p.m. ET)
Arlington Park, Race 3: $3,809 Pick 6 carryover (4:22 p.m. ET)
Arlington Park, Race 8: $162,700 Super High 5 jackpot (6:55 p.m. ET)

Picking eight winners in a row is a difficult task, which is why Friday’s 20-cent Pick 8 at Arlington Park features a carryover of $13,414. Picking seven consecutive winners is almost as tricky, hence the $2,960 carryover in Arlington’s 20-cent Pick 7. And come to think of it, picking six winners in a row can be pretty challenging too, which explains the $3,809 carryover in Arlington’s 20-cent Pick 6.

But if you’re going to take aim at these challenging wagers, Friday seems like the perfect day. The eight-race card has come up light with just 55 horses (6.9 per race) among the entries, which equates to “only” 4,572,288 possible outcomes in the Pick 8. The Pick 7 is even easier, with just 762,048 possibilities to consider, while the Pick 6 features 127,008 combinations.

Need help planning your wagers? We’ve gone through the card and identified a trio of short-priced singles you can use to keep your ticket costs down:

Race 1: #2 Rule Follower (2-1)

Rule Follower ran just fine in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Arlington last summer, overcoming a stumble at the start to finish second behind future two-time allowance winner Atone. Ruler Follower flashed tactical speed that day, as he did when finishing fifth in his first two starts over the Arlington turf course.

Rule Follower hasn’t run since September, but high-percentage trainer Larry Rivelli wins at a 35% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so the long break shouldn’t be a concern. Rule Follower is dropping down to the $12,500 maiden claiming level and picking up Rivelli’s go-to jockey Jareth Loveberry, so we’ll look for the son of Algorithms to lead the way home at a short price.

Race 2: #3 One Way Home (6-5)

One Way Home took a huge step forward in a $4,000 claimer over the Arlington Polytrack earlier this month, his first start since being claimed by hot trainer Michael Reavis. The six-year-old gelding led by daylight throughout and ultimately won by six lengths with a career-best 89 Brisnet Speed rating.

One Way Home is switching to turf for this one-mile, $5,000 claimer, but his 8-1-2-1 lifetime record on grass is respectable, and none of his five rivals are obvious turf standouts. If One Way Home handles the surface switch—and there’s no reason to think he won’t—he can lead all the way and win for fun.

Race 8: #6 Perfect Diva (9-5)

Perfect Diva has placed a couple of times against maiden special weight company on the Illinois circuit, including when third in a 1 1/16-mile Polytrack event at Arlington two starts back. Along the way, she’s posted a series of competitive Brisnet Speed ratings.

Dropping in class for a one-mile Polytrack maiden special weight for Illinois-breds should make Perfect Diva difficult to defeat under hot jockey E. T. Baird. The daughter of Perfect Soul has tactical speed and gets in carrying just 115 pounds, five to nine fewer than her rivals. What’s not to like?

Good luck!