Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for May 18

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Tuesday, May 18 at Canterbury Park, Indiana Grand, and Thistledown, plus thoughts on two vulnerable favorites in the $57,077 Pick 5 carryover at Parx.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Canterbury Park Opening Day Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $20) if your horse finishes second or third in any race at Canterbury Park.
• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Thistledown and Will Rogers Downs.
• Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll: Wager at least $1,000 (excluding show bets) at Indiana Grand in April, May, and/or June and receive $30 to wager at Indiana Grand on Indiana Derby day, July 7. Bet $1,000 at Indiana Grand in all three months and receive $150.

Picks and plays

Canterbury Park, Race 4: Maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 7:40 p.m. ET)

#5 Owen’s Pleasure (8-5) owns the three best Brisnet Speed ratings in this sprint for fillies and mares. She was also good enough to place against stakes company as a juvenile, when she came home third in the Northern Lights Debutante S. against fellow Minnesota-breds at Canterbury Park.

Owen’s Pleasure has recently shown encouraging form against maiden special weight company at Tampa Bay Downs, where she finished second and third in a pair of sprints over the last 2 1/2 months. The Brisnet Speed ratings Owen’s Pleasure received (74 and 73) top Tuesday’s field by wide margins, which suggests the daughter of Mark Valeski will be difficult to defeat against Minnesota-breds at Canterbury.

To take advantage of the Canterbury Park Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $20 win bet on Owen’s Pleasure, then play her over #1 Flash Flood (5-2) in a small exacta.

$20 to win on #5 Owen’s Pleasure
$5 exacta: 5 with 1
Total: $25

Indiana Grand, Race 2: $10,000 maiden claiming (six furlongs, 2:56 p.m. ET)

#6 Bellarific (2-1) demonstrated strong form at this class level and distance at Tampa Bay Downs last month, when she dueled for the lead and finished second by just a half-length. That encouraging effort produced a 70 Brisnet Speed rating, one of the highest figures in Tuesday’s field.

Bellarific has only run twice, so she has upside for trainer Anthony Granitz, who has five wins from 16 starters at Indiana Grand this meet.

Bellarific is also the only true speed horse on paper, so an easy lead should be in the offing.

#1 Miss Hattie (6-1), #2 Rose Marie B (4-1), and #4 Crossed the Line (3-1) can battle for the minor awards.

$15 to win on #6 Bellarific
$3 exacta: 6 with 1,2,4 ($9)
$1 trifecta: 6 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,4 ($6)
Total: $30

Thistledown, Race 7: $7,500 claiming (six furlongs, 3:50 p.m. ET)

High-percentage trainer Jeffrey Radosevich wins at a 34% rate with runners competing in a claiming race for the first time, a stat that suggests #3 Beeblegee (7-2) will be tough to beat in this claimer for Ohio-breds.

The three-year-old filly has competed against allowance company on the Ohio circuit this year and earned competitive Brisnet Speed ratings in the 50-66 range.

The drop to the claiming ranks should make Beeblegee formidable under jockey Luis Rivera, a 21% winner this meet.

To capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Beeblegee, then add an exacta, with #1 Tejate (9-2) and #5 Cue the Band (5-2) for second place.

$10 to win on #3 Beeblegee
$5 exacta: 3 with 1,5 ($10)
Total: $20

Carryover watch

Parx, Race 7: $57,077 Pick 5 Jackpot

On any given day in North American racing, the largest carryover up for grabs is typically tied to a jackpot-style Pick 6 wager. But Tuesday is an exception; the largest pot on the table is the $57,077 Pick 5 jackpot at Parx.

The “Philly Big 5” is a 50-cent wager with a 15% takeout rate. On days when multiple winning tickets are sold, 70% of the daily pools is paid out to winning bettors, which leaves 30% to grow the jackpot. Monday’s Philly Big 5 sequence returned from $753.65 from a pool of $64,600, even though the results were straightforward.

Tuesday’s sequence has the potential to generate an even bigger payoff, if we can beat a few favorites along the way. With this strategy in mind, let’s highlight a couple vulnerable favorites in the Philly Big 5.

Race 7: #4 Whyisshesoolucky (7-2)

Whyisshesoolucky will drop from $20,000 to $12,500 claiming company, but this isn’t guaranteed to produce a victory.

The five-year-old veteran has lost 19 straight races since she won a $50,000 starter allowance in January of 2020, and her three wins from 40 starts suggest she isn’t the type to trust at a short price.

Several of her rivals have been running just as fast or faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale, including #5 Lucky Olivia Rose (6-1), #6 Congrats Answer (6-1), and #7 Enough Love (5-1), so I’m inclined to oppose Whyisshesoolucky with one (or multiple) of these three.

Race 8: #9 Bundi Bundi (2-1)

Bundi Bundi is a logical contender in this one-mile event, but like Whyisshesoolucky, he is not a standout in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings.

#7 Call Fitzroy (5-1) has been running faster and cracked the trifecta in each of his last six starts, while #5 Strictly the Best (6-1) finished ahead of Bundi Bundi over this track, distance, and class level April 13.

Bundi Bundi has finished second in six of his nine starts, and he seems more likely to settle for a minor award than visit the winner’s circle.

Good luck!