Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Nov. 30

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $75 worth of picks and plays for Tuesday, Nov. 30 at Mahoning Valley, along with a suggested single for the $910 Pick 5 carryover at Zia Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Mahoning Valley.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 3: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 1:40 p.m. ET)

#4 Grins n’ Wins (2-1) has been facing tougher company than she’ll encounter on Tuesday. Two starts back, she ran third in a one-mile allowance at Mahoning, and last time out, she finished third again (beaten just two lengths) in a $10,000 claimer.

Grins n’ Wins brings a bevy of competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the mix and should appreciate dropping in class for hot trainer Johanna Urieta. Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Grins n’ Wins, after which we’ll single her to kick off cold double and Pick 3 wagers.

$10 to win on #4 Grins n’ Wins
$10 Double: 4 with 1
$10 Pick 3: 4 with 1 with 4
Total: $30

Mahoning Valley: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 2:08 p.m. ET)

#1 Indelible Image (6-5) hasn’t missed the board in three starts against maiden special weight company, including a solid runner-up effort at Mahoning last month. On that occasion, Indelible Image settled a couple lengths off the early tempo before rallying to finish second by 1 1/4 lengths.

The 70 Brisnet Speed rating Indelible Image posted is the highest figure in Tuesday’s field, so if the daughter of Ready’s Image brings her A-game under hot jockey Sonny Leon (a 27% winner this meet), she can win for fun as a single in our Pick 3 and double wagers.

We’ll also bet Indelible Image to win, in order to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back offer.

$10 to win on #1 Indelible Image
$20 Double: 1 with 4
Total: $30

Mahoning Valley: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 2:36 p.m. ET)

#4 Goodbyellowbrickrd (8-5) hasn’t missed the trifecta in five starts, and his last four runs have produced consistent Brisnet Speed ratings in the 66-72 range. Considering none of his Tuesday rivals have posted a figure higher than 59, it’s safe to call Goodbyellowbrickrd the fastest horse in the field.

Goodbyellowbrickrd enters off a runner-up effort sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Mahoning Valley, and while he’s shown a tendency to settle for minor awards so far, adding blinkers and Lasix may contribute to a breakthrough victory on Tuesday.

Concluding our trio of Midweek Bet Back plays, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Goodbyellowbrickrd. Then we’ll add a small exacta using the stretch-running second-time starter #9 Flying Guillotine (12-1) for second place.

$10 to win on #4 Goodbyellowbrickrd
$5 Exacta: 4 with 9
Total: $15

Carryover Watch

Zia Park, Race 6: $910 Pick 5 carryover (4:15 p.m. ET)

If your goal for Monday is to chase a carryover at a U.S. Thoroughbred racetrack, you won’t have many options—there are only four on the agenda. And if you want to purse a non-jackpot carryover, you’ll have to turn your attention to Zia Park, host of the only prize pool matching your criteria.

Zia Park’s 50-cent Pick 5 features a $910 carryover for Tuesday. It’s not a huge pool, but any bonus cash helps offset takeout, and who knows? Assemble the right combination of winners, and you might take home a solid payday.

The Pick 5 kicks off in Race 6, a $5,000 claimer held over five furlongs on dirt. Seven horses have been entered, the smallest field in a sequence featuring 43 horses (8.6 per race on average) before scratches. As a result, Race 6 seems like the perfect spot to search for a single… and if our chosen single is something of a price play, we could be looking at an enticing betting opportunity.

The morning line favorite is #7 Taino House (8-5), and understandably so. The four-year-old gelding broke his maiden for a $10,000 tag during the summer and has since hit the board in three straights races against tougher company, including a couple of $12,500 claimers and a Zia Park allowance.

But is Taino House unbeatable? Not necessarily. His last two starts have produced Brisnet Speed ratings of 70 and 72, meaningfully lower than the 78 posted by the lightly raced #3 Doctor Tink (4-1) in a $25,000 maiden claimer last December. On that occasion, Doctor Tink dueled for the lead through quick fractions before pulling away to beat the stakes-placed Jonathan Who (a next-out winner) by 1 3/4 lengths.

Doctor Tink hasn’t run since, which is probably why the three-year-old gelding is listed as the third choice on the morning line. But he’s neem training steadily for his return to action, most recently throwing down a bullet half mile in :46 4/5 at Zia Park. With just two starts under his belt, Doctor Tink still has upside, so I’m optimistic he can return in fine form and spring an upset against Taino House.

Many bettors in a situation like this would choose to use Taino House and Doctor Tink in equal strength, and if you choose to take this route, we can’t blame you. But if you want to play boldly and shoot for a higher return on investment, singling Doctor Tink might just be a viable strategy.

Good luck!