Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Sept. 16

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Sept. 16 at Belmont Park, Arlington Park, and Churchill Downs, including horses to single in Arlington’s $3,862 Pick 7 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Churchill Downs Bet Back: Get the value of your win bet back in bonus credit (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in eligible races from Sept. 17 through Oct. 3 at Churchill Downs.
• $20,000 Twilight Thursday Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at Churchill Downs on Thursdays from Sept. 16-30 to play for your share of a $20,000 prize pool.
• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Canterbury Park.
• $16,000 Hoosier Park Pick 4 Hit It and Split It: Make a winning early Pick 4 wager at Hoosier Park to win a share of $1,000. Offer applies to the early Pick 4 (Races 3-6) at Hoosier Park every Thursday from Aug. 19 through Dec. 2.

Picks and Plays

Belmont Park: Race 2: Lonesome Glory H. (G1, 2 1/2 miles, 2:38 p.m. ET)

#6 Snap Decision (1-1) is an obvious favorite after winning nine straight races over fences, including the Calvin Houghland Iroquois Hurdle S. (G1) earlier this summer. But might the up-and-coming mare #2 The Mean Queen (7-5) have upset potential?

The Mean Queen has won three of her four starts since arriving in the U.S., and her local record would surely stand at 4-for-4 if she hadn’t unseated her rider when leading by daylight in the Jonathan Kiser Novice S. at Saratoga two starts back.

On the bright side, The Mean Queen shrugged off her Jonathan Kiser disappointment to dominate Saratoga’s Jonathan Sheppard H. (G1) by 4 3/4 lengths last month. I don’t think we’ve seen the best this lightly raced mare has to offer yet.

We’ll bet The Mean Queen over Snap Decision in a cold exacta.

$25 Exacta: 2 with 6

Arlington Park: Race 1: $6,250 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:29 p.m. ET)

#5 Cave Creek (2-1) has only run once over Arlington’s Polytrack course, but her performance was eye-catching. In a $6,250 maiden claimer racing one mile on July 10, Cave Creek overcame a stumble at the start to lead all the way through fast fractions and obliterate her rivals by 4 3/4 lengths.

On that occasion, Cave Creek carved out legitimately fast fractions of :23.30 and :46.74, suggesting she has the speed to challenge over 5 1/2 furlongs on Thursday. Actually, Cave Creek ran just fine in a $12,500 claimer sprinting five furlongs over the Arlington grass course last month, finishing fifth by just two lengths while earning a career-best 68 Brisnet Speed rating.

We’ll bet Cave Creek to win and play her over recent Arlington maiden winner #7 Bossy Snow Pea (9-5) in the exacta.

$20 to win on #5 Cave Creek
$10 Exacta: 5 with 7
Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 6:56 p.m. ET)

During the 2020 September meet at Churchill Downs, Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen compiled an excellent 3-for-7 (43%) record with experienced juveniles. Perhaps Asmussen can keep this momentum going during the 2021 September meet, starting with #1 Cogburn (3-1).

Cogburn was far from disgraced in his debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga last month. Although he was no match for runaway winner My Prankster, Cogburn held on to finish fourth despite carving out blazing early fractions of :21.77 and :44.60. Asmussen wins at a 23% rate with second-time starters, so if Cogburn improves at all in his second run under colors, he can vie for victory at a fair price.

In order to capitalize on the Churchill Downs Bet Back and $20,000 Twilight Thursday Leaderboard promotions, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Cogburn. Then we’ll add an exacta using #4 Almanzo (5-1) and #8 Zippin Gigi (5-1) for second place.

$10 to win on #1 Cogburn
$5 Exacta: 1 with 4,8 ($10)
Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Arlington Park, Race 2: $3,862 Pick 7 carryover (4:03 p.m. ET)

You can usually count on Arlington Park to have a non-jackpot carryover on the agenda for any given racing day. On Thursday, the prize pool to chase is a $3,862 carryover in the 20-cent Pick 7.

The sequence looks competitive, but we’ve identified a pair of possible short-priced singles to build tickets around:

Race 3: $25,000 Maiden Claiming: #3 Maid of Honor (8-5)

Did you know Maid of Honor hasn’t missed the exacta when racing over Arlington’s Polytrack course? She’s competed three times over this surface, finishing second in a trio of maiden special weights.

Maid of Honor was full of run in a seven-furlong dash on Aug. 27, gaining 4 1/2 lengths through the final furlong to finish just 2 1/2 lengths away from victory. In the process, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro earned a 70 Brisnet Speed rating, marking the sixth time she’s cracked the 70 plateau from 10 starts.

None of Maid of Honor’s rivals have earned a figure higher than 69 this season, so from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, Maid of Honor is clearly the filly to beat. Cutting back to six furlongs is a question mark, though there isn’t much speed in Thursday’s field, so Maid of Honor shouldn’t fall too far off the early tempo. Throw in the fact apprentice jockey Albert Lopez has gone 3-for-7 (43%) riding for trainer Chris Block over the last two months, and Maid of Honor looms as a logical single.

Race 4: $6,250 Maiden Claiming: #1 Aka Lioness (7-5)

Aka Lioness has placed multiple times against tougher company, even finishing second for a $12,500 tag two starts back. Along the way, she’s earned consistent Brisnet Speed ratings in the 56-66 range, stamping the three-year-old filly as the fastest horse in Thursday’s field.

Aka Lioness enters off a strong effort in a $6,250 maiden claimer at Arlington, in which she rallied from a few lengths behind modest fractions to finish second by two lengths. Stretching out from five furlongs to six furlongs can help the daughter of Tale of Ekati visit the winner’s circle in her first start for hot trainer James Watkins, a 19% winner with new claiming acquisitions.

Good luck!