Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Sept. 9
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for a trio of evening stakes on Friday, Sept. 9 at Del Mar and Remington Park.
Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:
- Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in eligible races at Rosehill (Australia).
- Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) in select races at Del Mar. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
Picks and Plays
Del Mar: Race 7: I’m Smokin S. (six furlongs, 9:01 p.m. ET)
#1 Kangaroo Court (8-5) finished second in his debut sprinting five furlongs at Del Mar, carving out a quick pace before weakening to finish half a length behind next-out Graduation S. winner The Big Wam.
What can a horse's auction price tell you about its likelihood of winning when handicapping a race?
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) September 23, 2021
More than you may think!
Let @J_Keelerman explain ⬇️ https://t.co/WL0X92v3d7
One month later, Kangaroo Court tackled a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar and led all the way to obliterate his pursuers by 14 1/4 lengths, earning a flashy 97 Brisnet Speed rating that easily tops the I’m Smokin field. A repeat can send Kangaroo Court to the winner’s circle over flashy debut winner #8 Giver Not a Taker (5-2) and Graduation S. runner-up #6 Straighten Up (5-2).
- $15 Trifecta: 1 with 6,8 with 6,8 ($30)
Remington Park: Race 3: Oklahoma Stallion S. (seven furlongs, 9:03 p.m. ET)
#5 Rowdy Rascal (2-1) has lost three straight races running one mile or farther, but two of those were stakes, and he hit the board every time.
Cutting back in distance should suit Rowdy Rascal just fine, considering he’s won his last three sprint starts (including the 2021 Oklahoma Classics Juvenile S.) with sharp off-the-pace rallies. We’ll bet Rowdy Rascal to win and play him over #4 Kaleo (5-2) in the exacta.
- $20 to win on #5 Rowdy Rascal
- $5 Exacta: 5 with 4
Total: $25
Remington Park: Race 5: Oklahoma Stallion Fillies S. (seven furlongs, 9:59 p.m. ET)
#3 Kachina (4-1) was beaten only 1 1/4 lengths when finishing third against #6 Fightingtemptation (9-2) and #1 Smokin’ Okie (5-2) in the one-mile Cinema S. during the spring at Will Rogers Downs. On that occasion, Kachina set the pace for six furlongs and was only headed at the eighth pole.
Handicapping horses by analyzing their pedigrees can be a helpful way to identify which runners are suited to particular race conditions.
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) October 6, 2021
Let @J_Keelerman tell you why dam stats are important 👇https://t.co/EpoSBUfADL
Kachina won her first two starts in determined fashion and has been freshened for 3 1/2 months, so this lightly raced filly has upside for improvement while returning from a layoff and cutting back to seven furlongs. We’ll bet her to win and play her over Fightingtemptation, Smokin’ Okie, and #4 Hits Pricey Legacy (2-1) in the trifecta.
- $18 to win on #3 Kachina
- $3 Trifecta: 3 with 4 with 1,6 ($6)
- $3 Trifecta: 3 with 1,6 with 4 ($6)
Total: $30
Good luck!
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