Keeneland: A single and a longshot for the $93,613 Pick 6 carryover

April 15th, 2023

The action-packed second Saturday of the Keeneland spring meet boasts a $93,613 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

Planning to play along? We’ve identified a suggested single and a live longshot worth building tickets around:

Best single: Race 9: #6 Disarm (7-2)

Race 9 is the $400,000 Lexington (G3), the final stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The 1 1/16-mile contest has drawn a competitive field of 11 horses, but #6 Disarm (7-2) looms as a viable Pick 6 single.

Disarm hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since breaking his maiden at Saratoga last summer, but the son of Gun Runner has run well in both his starts this season. First he ran second in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn Park, beaten four lengths while finishing up nicely into strong closing fractions. Then he finished second in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2), a slow-paced race in which Disarm was the only horse to gain ground on the winner.

Disarm earned a 101 Brisnet Late Pace rating in his allowance comeback, and he improved that number to a powerful 110 in the Louisiana Derby. If Disarm gets a fair pace to work with in the Lexington, he can rally to the winner’s circle and qualify to the Kentucky Derby.

RELATED: Meet the Contenders: 2023 Lexington Stakes

Live longshot: Race 10: #9 White Frost (8-1)

At first glance, #2 In Italian (7-5) and #5 With The Moonlight (5-2) are formidable favorites to win Race 10, the Jenny Wiley (G1) for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles on turf. In Italian wired the Diana (G1) and First Lady (G1) last year before finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1), while With The Moonlight won the Cape Verdi (G2) and Balanchine (G2) in Dubai during the winter.

But the favorites aren’t necessarily unbeatable. In Italian hasn’t run in more than five months, and With The Moonlight lost two of her three U.S. starts last season, scoring her lone victory in the Saratoga Oaks (G3).

Perhaps White Frost can surprise at a price. The five-year-old mare unleashed a gigantic rally in the one-mile Honey Fox (G3) at Gulfstream Park last month, gaining 3 1/2 lengths in the final furlong to finish second by a neck. Along the way, she ran her final quarter-mile in approximately :22 2/5.

If White Frost unleashes a similar burst of acceleration in the Jenny Wiley, she’ll be coming on strongly down the homestretch. She’s worth including in the Pick 6.

Good luck!

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