Keeneland: Analyzing the $6,252 Super High 5 carryover

The final race of the Keeneland fall meet features a $6,252 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The meet finale is Race 10 on Saturday, a maiden special weight for two-year-olds racing 1 1/16 miles on turf. With an overflow field of 16 entries, including four also-eligibles, it’s a suitably competitive conclusion to a stellar meet.

Where do we begin in sorting out the contenders? Perhaps by taking a stand and keying #8 Act of Mutiny (3-1) on top. Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, Act of Mutiny started his career on dirt at Saratoga, finishing fifth in a six-furlong maiden special weight won by next-out Iroquois (G3) runner-up Risk It.

Act of Mutiny subsequently switched to turf for a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs and ran an improved race, rallying from more than a dozen lengths off the pace to finish third by 4 1/2 lengths. The runner-up, Committee of One, returned to win the Indian Summer S. at Keeneland.

There’s a good chance Act of Mutiny will encounter easier competition on Saturday, and there are other reasons to like his chances. As a son of Quality Road out of a Mineshaft mare, Act of Mutiny is bred to relish stretching out over 1 1/16 miles. Plus, McGaughey wins at a respectable 18% rate with horses running long for the first time and has gone 3-for-10 (30%) at Keeneland this meet.

It’s difficult to propose full Super High 5 tickets without seeing scratches, because also-eligible entrants #13 Uno Mas Bourbon (8-1) and #16 Real Men Violin (2-1) boast competitive form lines and will warrant inclusion if they draw in. But regardless of how the final field unfolds, we recommend keying Act of Mutiny on top.

We’ll also mention #7 Merlin’s Magic (30-1) as a live longshot worth using underneath. Merlin’s Magic never factored in a one-mile maiden special weight on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis last time out, but in his debut two starts back he made a mild rally to finish seventh (beaten 6 3/4 lengths) against a large field in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Kentucky Downs grass course. Merlin’s Magic has been gelded and is adding blinkers for his return to turf, so there are reasons to believe he can move forward at a big price.

Good luck!