Keeneland: Betting longshots in the closing day graded stakes

The five-day Keeneland summer meet wraps up on Sunday, with a pair of graded stakes races on the turf course.

Deep and competitive fields have turned out to contest the 1 1/16-mile Transylvania (G3) for 3-year-olds and the 1 1/2-mile Elkhorn (G3) for older horses.

Longshot winners could be in the offing, so let’s dive in and search for lucrative plays:

Race 7: Transylvania (G3, 4:24 p.m. ET)

#2 Field Pass (2-1) looms as the favorite, after he wired the 1 1/8-mile Audubon S. at Churchill Downs last month, though #5 Vintage Print (4-1) — a $1.8 million yearling purchase — is 2-for-2 on the lawn and figures to be a stretch-running threat for renowned turf trainer Chad Brown.

I’m tempted to oppose both with #9 Spanish Kingdom (20-1). A son of versatile 2011 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Animal Kingdom, Spanish Kingdom has won his last two starts on turf for trainer Joe Sharp. He rallied to break his maiden at Fair Grounds, then dominated a 1 1/8-mile allowance at Churchill Downs by three lengths.

The latter race was particularly impressive, because Spanish Kingdom kicked clear easily through a :11.75 final furlong to defeat a quality field including Angelus Warrior (a next-out allowance winner) and Letmeno (who returned to cross the wire first in the Iowa Derby).

Spanish Kingdom might not be the most likely winner of the Transylvania, but 20-1 seems like too big a price on an improving runner. Let’s bet him to win and key him in the exacta, with Field Pass and Vintage Print.

$10 to win on #9 Spanish Kingdom
$1 exacta: 9 with 2,5 ($2)
$4 exacta: 2,5 with 9 ($8)
Total: $20

Race 9: Elkhorn (G2, 5:30 p.m. ET)

There are some accomplished horses entered in the Elkhorn, including Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) winner #5 Zulu Alpha (8-5) and 2019 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) victor #10 Arklow. But Arklow has been defeated in seven of his last eight runs, and Zulu Alpha hasn’t run since March, which suggests neither is a certain winner Sunday.

Recognizing the general tendency for North America’s long-distance turf horses to take turns beating each other, I’ll take a small stand against the short-priced favorites with #3 Ramsey Solution (20-1). In a race almost completely lacking early speed, Ramsey Solution’s frontrunning style could lead to an advantageous trip in his first start beyond 1 1/8 miles.

Conditioned by hot trainer Wesley Ward (3-for-7 to start the Keeneland meet), Ramsey Solution has won three of his last four starts by daylight margins, including a pair of grass events at Churchill Downs. He might relish the chance to stretch out over 1 1/2 miles, considering his sire (Real Solution) was a Grade 1-winning turf router and his damsire (Dynaformer) is a renowned source of stamina.

If Ramsey Solution finishes first or second, a significant expenditure won’t be necessary to yield a hefty profit.

We’ll bet Ramsey Solution to win, and key him in a couple small exactas with Zulu Alpha and Arklow:

$10 to win on #3 Ramsey Solution
$1 exacta: 3 with 5,10 ($2)
$4 exacta: 5,10 with 3 ($8)
Total: $20

Good luck!