Keeneland: Betting the First Lady Stakes

Although just six fillies and mares are entered in Saturday’s $350,000 First Lady (G1) at Keeneland, the 1-mile turf test promises to be one of the toughest handicapping challenges of the weekend.

The favorites haven’t been the most reliable bunch. #4 Newspaperofrecord (8-5) can be a brilliant frontrunner on her best day, as she demonstrated when she defeated #1 Beau Recall (2-1) by three lengths in the June 27 Just a Game (G1) racing a mile at Belmont Park.

But unless Newspaperofrecord is allowed to run freely on the front end, she is prone to fight her rider and falter down the lane. That’s arguably what happened when Beau Recall turned the tables on Newspaperofrecord by 1 1/2 lengths in the Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile (G2) last month.

#5 Uni (5-2) could also be vulnerable at a short price. The 6-year-old mare was a brilliant winner of the 2019 First Lady, a victory she parlayed into a romp against males in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1).

But Uni’s terrific turn of foot has been lacking this season. She struggled to a third-place finish in the Just a Game, then faded to seventh against males in the Fourstardave H. (G1).

For these reasons, I’m tempted to play against the favorites with #3 Daddy Is a Legend (6-1).

She has been dull in her first two starts this season and enters the First Lady off a fifth-place effort in the Distaff Turf Mile. but Daddy Is a Legend has been a picture of consistency against tough competition in the past. She even gave Uni a scare, when she finished second by a half-length in the 2018 Matriarch (G1).

A two-time winner over the Keeneland turf course, Daddy Is a Legend will need a turnaround to vie for victory in the First Lady. But at 6-1 in a race full of vulnerable favorites, I’m willing to key her for first and second in the trifecta.

Newspaperofrecord, Uni, and Beau Recall will round out our tickets in this “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1).

$3 trifecta: 3 with 1,4,5 with 1,4,5 ($18)
$2 trifecta: 1,4,5 with 3 with 1,4,5 ($12)
Total: $30

Good luck!