Keeneland carryovers: $66,548 Pick 6, $11,321 Super High 5

No one hit the $1 Pick 6 on opening day at Keeneland, triggering an enticing non-jackpot carryover worth $66,548 for Saturday’s stakes-packed card.

The $1 Super High 5 likewise went unsolved on Friday, so Saturday features a non-jackpot Super High 5 carryover worth $11,321.

Pick 6 analysis

The Pick 6 spans Race 5 through Race 10, a sequence containing 67 horses (averaging nearly 11.2 horses per race) and 1,729,728 possible outcomes before scratches.

Bettors looking for a single to build tickets around should check out Race 10, the Blue Grass (G1) for three-year-olds racing 1 1/8 miles. #10 Sierra Leone (2-1) looks like a standout. Even though he lost last year’s Remsen (G2) by a nose to Blue Grass rival #4 Dornoch (3-1), Sierra Leone arguably ran the better race that day, closing from far back over a strongly speed-favoring track to finish second by a nose. Dornoch, in contrast, benefited from setting the pace.

Sierra Leone kicked off 2024 by overcoming a slow pace to win the Risen Star (G2) over a deep field including Lecomte (G3) winner Track Phantom and next-out Louisiana Derby (G2) 1-2 finishers Catching Freedom and Honor Marie. Sierra Leone should move forward in his second run of the season, setting the stage for another victory.

Race 8, the Madison (G1) for fillies and mares sprinting seven furlongs, also appears straightforward to handicap. #8 Vahva (2-1) and #6 Alva Starr (5-2) are the two morning line favorites, and while Vahva defeated Alva Starr by half a length in the Raven Run (G2) over this track and distance last fall, Alva Starr might be the more likely winner on Saturday.

Alva Starr entered the Raven Run off blowout victories in the Dashing Beauty S. and Prioress (G2), winning the latter contest at Saratoga by 8 3/4 lengths. A pure pacesetter, Alva Starr started 2024 with a decisive 3 1/2-length win in the American Beauty S. at Oaklawn Park, and getting in that prep run may lend her an advantage over Vahva, who hasn’t started since the Raven Run. Using them both seems like a sound strategy for bettors who can afford it, though players with modest budgets can consider singling Alva Starr.

We’ll also mention #6 Austere (10-1) as a live longshot worth including in Race 7, the Appalachian (G2) for three-year-old fillies racing one mile on turf. As a two-year-old, Austere posted a three-length win in the Juvenile Fillies S. at Kentucky Downs, then finished a respectable fifth (beaten only two lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1).

Austere never had enough racing room when starting 2024 with a fifth-place finish by 1 3/4 lengths in the Florida Oaks (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. Given a clean run in the Appalachian, she’s eligible to outrun expectations in a big way.

Super High 5 analysis

The Super High 5 is available to play in Race 11, a 1 1/16-mile grass allowance for older horses. Only eight horses have entered, and morning line favorite #3 Running Bee (8-5) looks formidable. He dominated a $62,500 allowance optional claimer over this course and distance in October 2022, and since returning from a lengthy layoff last fall he’s shown good form, most recently finishing second by half a length in the Tampa Bay (G3).

Running Bee hails from the barn of Chad Brown, a 25% winner saddling turf horses at Keeneland since 2021. Returning to Keeneland and dropping into the allowance ranks should make Running Bee tough to catch, so we recommend keying him on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!