Keeneland selections and analysis for Friday, April 14

We’ve been fortunate to experience amazing weather the first four days of Keeneland, and now we get a test on Friday, with scattered thunderstorms in the forecast.

Yesterday, we hit the Late Pick 5 with our top two choices (if you include #9 in Race 5, who was elevated to top choice after my top two scratched earlier in the day).

Let's give it a go with Friday's picks!

*Visit Brisnet.com/keeneland for full Keeneland reports all in one place!

Race 1:

#5 Cape Trafalgar (3-1): Yielded late to finish a half-length third in $120K maiden special weight last out at Churchill in November. Failed as favorite in last three starts but will return off a more than four-month layoff and put in solid works ahead of 2023 debut. Saffie Joseph is a 28% winner with beaten favorites and an 18% winner at maiden special weight level. Irad Ortiz Jr. (24% winner this meet) will regain the mount.

#8 Global Stage (1-1): Recorded an 88 Brisnet Speed rating when third on debut in $90K maiden special weight at Oaklawn Feb. 10. Transferred to barn of Brad Cox and will make second career start (27% win rate for Cox). Will gain services of Flavien Prat, a 40% winner paired with Cox the last two months, and the Street Sense colt posted a number of sharp workouts leading up to Keeneland debut.

#2 Sweet Cherry Pie (8-1): Twirling Candy colt that will make second career start for Rusty Arnold (24% win rate second career race) while adding blinkers for the first time after finishing far back in fourth in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream March 4. Can improve with cutback in distance, and Luis Saez in the saddle is a huge plus.

Longshot to watch:

#6 Nasty Habit (15-1): By Violence (19% sire win rate with first-time starters), the four-year-old is out of a mare with four winners from four starters, including a stakes winner. Has looked sharp in morning moves for Bill Mott, who strikes at 14% rate at maiden special weight level. Junior Alvarado (17% winner sprints) named to ride.

Race 2:

#8 Talkin Pharoah (6-1): American Pharoah gelding flashed an 82 Brisnet Speed rating when second on debut in 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland. Tried turf last out and finished far back in 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on Saratoga’s turf August 2022. Wesley Ward a 29% winner with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming and a 26% winner with horses coming off layoffs of 90 days or more. Walter Rodriguez (21% winner in sprints) will pick up the mount.

#2 Collect From Ike (7-2): First-time starter for Brad Cox (27% maiden claiming) bred to succeed at today’s distance. Florent Geroux (36% sprints) named to ride. Solid works ahead of debut.

#9 Northwind (10-1): Irad Ortiz Jr. will pick up the mount on the Ghostzapper grandson. Will get blinkers for the first time, and Joe Sharp is a 17% winner with horses running their second career race. Sharp workout April 5 at Keeneland.

Also consider for horizontals:

#11 With Purpose (10-1): Runhappy gelding third in lone start back in February at Gulfstream for trainer Brendan Walsh. Rider switch to hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione.

Race 3:

#2 Golden Dagger (10-1): Posted a 78 Brisnet Speed rating in lone start at Turfway when racing at today’s distance. William Morey a 25% winner with horses switching from all-weather to turf and a 22% winner with horses coming off a maiden win. Gerardo Corrales will pick up the mount on the Bolt d’Oro filly.

#1 Frigid Lady (4-1): Frosted filly raced at a mile on Turfway’s all-weather track in last two and will cut back in distance while returning to dirt and dropping in class in first start in more than two months. Will pick up services of Irad Ortiz Jr. (38% winner paired with Mike Maker the last two months). Three back, the chestnut was a half-length second in a six-furlong Churchill allowance. Added distance should help.

#9 Miss Tappy Tone (8-1): Won on debut in maiden claimer at Fair Grounds while posting a 77 Brisnet Speed rating. Stretched out to 1 1/16 miles last out and finished far back. Chris Hartman a 17% winner with horses going long to short, and Alex Achard is a 15% winner in sprints.

Race 4:

#2 Coach Petro (3-1): Raced on turf and all-weather in four career starts, all at today’s distance. Beaten a neck third three back in a $105K maiden special weight on Saratoga’s turf. Cairo Prince colt will return off a more than three-month layoff for Brad Cox, a 32% winner with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming, and a 38% winner with horses racing on Lasix the first time. Florent Geroux will inherit the mount and is 2-for-4 paired with Cox the last 14 days.

#6 Bon Bueno (5-2): Switches back to dirt after finishing a distant eighth in one-mile maiden special weight on turf at Fair Grounds March 26. Mineshaft colt is 8-0-1-2 from today’s distance but rider switch to Luis Saez (17% winner this meet) may help Bon Bueno get to the winner’s circle in his second start off a layoff for Joe Sharp.

#1 Emergency Response (8-1): Brushed the gate while breaking outwardly and failed to factor on debut in six-furlong sprint at Fair Grounds March 11. Bret Calhoun is a 21% winner with horses running their second career race and a 24% winner with first-time blinkers. Reylu Gutierrez (17% winner with routes) will pick up the mount. Street Sense gelding could take huge step forward in first try at a route distance.

Longshot of note:

#7 Noble Connection (15-1): Had good position early but faltered in the stretch when racing at today’s distance on Turfway’s all-weather last out. Will return to dirt and make second start off a layoff for Kenny McPeek, a 19% winner with horses running their second route race and a 16% winner with horses racing on Lasix a second time. Brian Hernandez Jr. (20% winner with routes) will regain the mount.

Race 5:

#1 Mrs. Astor (6-1): Graduated last out when racing 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream and flashed a 100 Late Pace rating, indicating the Lookin At Lucky filly can handle the added distance today. Her 85 Brisnet Speed rating last out is the highest last race speed rating among the field, and trainer Jonathan Thomas is a 22% winner with horses coming off a maiden win. John Velazquez will pick up the mount.

#8 Knockyoursocksoff (4-1): Drops in class for Chris Block and races on Lasix a second time while picking up Florent Geroux. Bullet four-furlong workout. Finished second in the Jessamine (G2) in most recent turf outing, back in October at Keeneland. 

#6 Wonderfull Lady (5-1): Finished a good fourth in Prix des Reservoirs (G3) last October and will now make first U.S. start for Brendan Walsh, a 17% winner with shippers to the U.S. and a 19% winner with horses coming off a long layoff. Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle a huge plus. French-bred will race on Lasix.

Consider for horizontals:

#2 Mademoisellejackie (9-2): Wired an $84K maiden special weight at today’s distance last out while posting a 74 BRIS figure. Christophe Clement is a 22% winner with horses coming off a layoff of 46-90 days and a 16% winner with horses coming off a maiden win. Joel Rosario will stay with the American Pharoah filly.

#3 Safeen (15-1): Won by a half length two back at 1 1/16 miles then finished third as the favorite in an allowance at Churchill last out in November. Eddie Kenneally a 19% winner with horses coming off a layoff of more than 90 days and a 24% winner first-time Lasix. William Buick will pick up the mount for the War Front filly.

#4 C C Cruise Control (20-1): Cross Traffic filly finished far back in third in Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Kentucky Downs three back, then moved up to face graded stakes company and finished six lengths behind in fifth. Can improve with Lasix and will get a rider switch to Brian Hernandez Jr. Sharp workout April 7.

AE of note: #13, #14

Race 6:

#1 Distinctlypossible (5-2): Was a distant eighth in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) before hitting the bench second half of 2022. Returned to race on turf in 7 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer in February and came home sixth after bumped at the start. Will return off 47-day layoff for Chad Brown, and the surface switch should trigger improvement (26% winning move for Brown). Tyler Gaffalione (44% winner paired with Brown the last two months) will pick up the mount and will have the Curlin filly in good position from the rail post — which is winning at an 18% clip.

#5 Inventing (8-5): Won three back at today’s distance when racing at Keeneland under Luis Saez, who retains the mount. Led at top of the stretch before caught by pair of outer foes to finish third last out when racing a mile at Gulfstream on March 10. Trainer Todd Pletcher is a 26% winner second off the layoff and a 22% winner at allowance level.

#4 Academic Honor (6-1): Won second career start when racing a mile in $60K maiden special weight at Gulfstream Feb. 13 over a muddy track. Moves up in class for Kenny McPeek in first start in more than a year, but the Honor Code filly has put in a number of fast works in lead-up to season debut. Brian Hernandez will regain the mount and strikes at a 20% rate in routes.

Race 7:

#11 Lady Hollywood (15-1): Last seen finishing fifth in November’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) in her first U.S. outing, the chestnut filly will make first start for Wesley Ward, a 28% winner in non-graded stakes, and comes off a five-month layoff. Will get John Velazquez (17% winner on turf) aboard, and the filly owns a 6-3-1-0 record at today’s distance, and she’s 3-for-7 on turf. Posted sharp four-furlong workout April 8 at Keeneland.

#3 Love Reigns (7-2): The other Ward runner, the bay filly won two back at today’s distance in the Bolton Landing S. while recording a 95 Brisnet Speed rating, tied with the best turf speed figure among the field. Drops in class off eighth in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint when beaten as the favorite. Joel Rosario will pick up the mount (11% winner on turf).

#8 American Apple (10-1): Another BC Juvenile Turf Sprint also-ran, who was sixth last out after leading through the first call but gave way down the lane. Posted triple-digit E1 and E2 figures in the process. Two back, the American Pharoah filly won the Matron (G3) by a neck, beating today’s race rival Danse Macabre, who finished 1 1/2 lengths behind in third. Will remove blinkers in first start in more than five months. Gerardo Corrales will retain the mount.

Also consider for horizontals:

#4 Accomplished Girl (6-1): Dominated in second career start to break maiden at Gulfstream. Posted 95 BRIS figure when winning by 5 1/4 lengths. Moves up in class for Saffie Joseph, a 15% winner in non-graded stakes. Edgard Zayas (17% winner on turf) will stay in the saddle.

If taken off turf:

#5 Stone Silent (30-1): Graduated on debut in five-furlong Fasig-Tipton Debutante Stakes while posting a 96 Brisnet Speed rating. Led through second call in Dixie Belle Stakes at Oaklawn but faltered when headed and finished far back in fifth. Has never raced on grass but if race is taken off turf, the Indian Charlie granddaughter is an intriguing longshot play.

Race 8:

#2 Travel Column (3-1): Fourth in last two when facing graded stakes company, the Frosted mare will drop in class today for new conditioner Paulo Lobo, a 24% with horses making their first start for the trainer. The gray mare will also race on Lasix a second time (winning move 17% of the time for Lobo) in her first start since October. She’s posted a number of sharp workouts in the interim, and she showed good early speed in her last three when racing between seven furlongs and 1 1/8 miles. Cutback in distance and rider switch to Irad Ortiz Jr. (24% winner this meet) can get her to the winner’s circle.

#9 Chi Town Lady (9-5): Got up at the finish to win the seven-furlong Test (G1) at Saratoga last August. Finished sixth by 5 3/4 lengths last out in Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) at Keeneland and will make her first start in more than five months. Verrazano filly will regain rider Joel Rosario, who guided her in the Test, but cutting back to 6 1/2 furlongs may not be ideal for the four-year-old.

#5 Novel Squall (6-1): Drops in class after facing stakes company in last three. Four back, the Violence mare romped to a 9 1/2-length victory in an allowance optional claimer at Keeneland under Reylu Gutierrez. Will regain his services here and has chance to improve off the layoff. Fast workout April 2 at Keeneland.

Also consider for horizontals:

#4 Richebourg (8-1): Will cut back in distance after finishing first and third in 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimers. Will add blinkers the first time in first start in more than two months. Picks up hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione and recorded a pair of bullet four-furlong workouts in April.

#3 My Destiny (4-1): Moves up in class off a dominant win at today’s distance in a starter optional claimer at Gulfstream March 24 in which the six-year-old posted an 87 Brisnet Speed rating. Sharp workout April 7. The Majesticperfection mare will retain Javier Castellano.

Race 9:

#7 Modern Games (3-5): Winner of the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) will return off a more than five-month layoff to make four-year-old debut for Charlie Appleby, a 53% winner with horses that won their last race and 16-for-32 in graded stakes. Regular rider William Buick will stick with the champion turf horse.

#2 Up to the Mark (10-1): Flashed a 101 Brisnet Speed rating when a dominant winner of an allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream two back. Handled the stretch-out in distance last out at the same track and will move up in class for Todd Pletcher, a 25% winner with horses that won their last race. Irad Ortiz Jr. (30% winner on turf) will retain the mount.

#5 Dr Zempf (6-1): Chad Brown runner will make second start with the trainer since shipping from Europe. The four-year-old is 1-for-2 at today’s distance and recorded a 94 BRIS figure last out when winning a 7 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream. Tyler Gaffalione will stick with the gray gelding, who’s won at Group 2 level.

#4 Emmanuel (4-1): Won last two at 1 1/16 miles on turf, but needed the added distance to get up for the win. More Than Ready colt broke maiden at a mile on Gulfstream’s main track then wired allowance optional claimer at 1 1/16 miles on Tampa Bay’s dirt track.

Race 10:

#10 Tshiebwe (3-1): Placed second at today’s distance two back in an $84K maiden special weight, then finished a half-length third when caught on both sides nearing the finish in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight. Returns off a 47-day layoff for Todd Pletcher, a 22% winner at the maiden special weight level, and Irad Ortiz Jr. will get his second consecutive ride with the Race Day colt. Sharp four-furlong workout on April 7.

#7 St. John’s (9-2): Followed up a distant 10thin a six-furlong maiden special weight with a 6 3/4-length second in $50K maiden special weight last out at today’s distance while recording an 85 Brisnet Speed rating. Trainer Brendan Walsh is a 22% winner with horses running second route race, and the Hard Spun colt posted a sharp five-furlong workout April 8.

#8 Bourbon Resolve (5-2): Another Hard Spun colt, Bourbon Resolve came home second in a seven-furlong maiden special weight and flashed a 96 Brisnet Speed rating and 102 Late Pace rating in the process. He’ll stretch out to 8 1/2 furlongs here for Ian Wilkes, just a 7% winner with horses racing at a route distance for the first time. Tyler Gaffalione will retain the mount.

Longshot of note: #1 Mr McGregor (15-1): A distant third last out when trying a route the first time. Will race on Lasix a second time (winning move 22% of the time for Bill Mott) and makes second start off a layoff. Rail post is winning at an 18% clip, and the Into Mischief colt posted a pair of bullet workouts on April 1 and April 9.

AE of note:
#13 Southern Sunset (4-1): Posted 99 Late Pace rating when finishing fourth by two lengths in a $100K maiden special weight run at a mile. Brian Hernandez (13-2-2-0 this meet) will pick up the mount.