Keeneland selections and analysis for Sunday, April 23

The final Sunday of the Keeneland Spring meet features a nine-race card.

1st Race

#1 Fieldstone (7-2): Third in first start off the claim for trainer Alexis Claire when racing at today’s distance in a $30K claimer at Fair Grounds March 22; posted career-best 86 Brisnet Speed rating. Corey Lanerie (25% winner with routes) will pick up the mount, and the rail post is winning at a 28% rate. Dialed In gelding owns 4-1-0-2 record at today’s distance.

Will try to beat morning line favorite #5 King’s Ovation (1-1), who’s 0-for-4 at today’s distance. Not This Time five-year-old led through first call but yielded in the final furlong for place in one-mile starter optional claimer at Fair Grounds Feb. 2. Recorded 94 Brisnet Speed rating — highest last race speed figure among the field. Returns off more than two-month layoff for Dale Romans, a 23% winner at claiming level, and put in sharp workout April 16. Will regain rider Joe Talamo, a 14% winner this meet but a 6% winner with routes.

#2 Rogue Element (12-1): Honor Code six-year-old struggled when racing a mile on Turfway’s all-weather April 1 but can improve second start off a layoff for Jeff Hiles, a 24% winner at claiming level and with horses switching from AW to dirt. Will pick up Reylu Gutierrez, a 17% winner with routes and 11% winner this meet. Gelding owns 5-1-1-1 record at today’s distance.

2nd Race

#12 Secret Money (7-2): Flashed 88 Brisnet Speed rating on debut when a five-length fourth in $84K maiden special weight run at five furlongs at Gulfstream April 2. Brendan Walsh is a 22% winner with horses running second grass race. Irad Ortiz Jr. (29% winner turf) will pick up the mount. Will try to beat morning line favorite with the Good Samaritan filly.

#5 Cowichan (8-5): Kodiac filly has two second-place finishes and two thirds from four career starts. Posted 86 Brisnet Speed rating last out when a length third in $105K maiden special weight at Saratoga Sept. 1. Can improve off long layoff for Wesley Ward, a 32% winner this meet. Three-year-old will race on Lasix the first time (28% winning move for Ward), and John Velazquez will retain the mount.

#10 Rapunzels Song (15-1): Kantharos filly is out of a mare who has six winners from nine starters, including two turf winners and a stakes winner. Joel Delacruz Mejia is a 23% winner with sprints, and Edgar Morales strikes at a 24% rate on turf. Bullet four-furlong workout April 11.

Also consider:

#4 Sandra D (20-1): Will try grass the first time after placing third and seventh in six-furlong maiden special weight events on Fair Grounds’ main track. Steve Margolis is a 16% winner first time turf, and the Mor Spirit filly is out of a mare who has produced three turf winners. Brian Hernandez Jr. will regain the mount.

#7 Little Hot Mess (20-1): Army Mule filly is out of a dam who has produced five winners from seven starters, including two turf winners and a stakes winner. Jordan Blair is a 14% winner with first-time starters and an 11% winner debut turf. Sharp three-furlong workout April 17.

AE of note:

#15 Anna’s Arabesque (8-1): Munnings filly recorded 75 BRIS figure when second as the favorite on debut in $50K maiden special weight. Will get a rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione. Trainer Phil Bauer is a 33% winner with horses running second career race. Sharp workout April 15.

3rd Race

#4 Treasure of War (5-2): Declaration of War four-year-old was far back in sixth last out when racing a mile on Turfway’s all-weather Feb. 16. Will get a rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione. Cherie DeVaux (17% winner this meet) is a 38% winner first time claiming and a 20% winner with horses coming off a layoff of 46-90 days. Sharp four-furlong workout April 16.

#3 Lucy’s Cakes Fly (10-1): Ran to the front, stayed clear to the stretch but faltered late to finish fourth in one-mile allowance at Turfway last out while recording an 80 Brisnet Speed figure — highest last race speed rating among the field. Drops in class today for Eric Reed, a 21% winner at the claiming level and with horses switching from AW to dirt. Julien Leparoux will pick up the mount.

#8 Honorifique (4-1): Failed as favorite last out in six-furlong allowance on muddy Mahoning Valley track March 7. Can improve off the layoff for Eddie Kenneally, a 24% winner first time claiming and with beaten favorites. Luis Saez (23% winner sprints) will regain the mount. Was beaten a half length last time running at Keeneland, in a seven-furlong sprint April 2022, while recording a 90 BRIS figure.

#5 Klimt’s Muse (9-2): Raced a mile on AW last out when fourth in an allowance optional claimer. Will return to a sprint and won two and three back when racing six and 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway. Luan Machado will retain the mount. Thomas Humphries is a 15% winner at claiming level.

4th Race

#4 Uninvited Guest (6-1): Recorded an 89 Brisnet Speed when second in 1 1/16-mile claimer at Fair Grounds Feb. 11. Will return off a more than two-month layoff for Steve Margolis, a 21% winner at claiming level and a 15% winner with shippers. Four-year-old put in pair of sharp workouts April 5 and April 14. James Graham will retain the mount.

#2 Order and Law (9-5): Son of Violence was an even fifth last out in $50K claimer run at a mile at Santa Anita while earning 90 BRIS figure. Makes first start in 51 days for Robert Hess, a 15% winner at claiming level and an 11% winner with shippers. Hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione (29% winner this meet) will pick up the mount. Seven-year-old has 4-1-1-0 record at today’s distance. Fast five-furlong workout April 15.

#5 Bear Oak (7-2): Won, placed a nose second, and came home third by 3 1/4 lengths in last three when racing between a mile and 1 1/16 miles on Turfway’s all-weather. Posted BRIS figures in 87-90 range. Will return to dirt and pick up Edgar Morales (a 20% winner with routes), but trainer Ismael Bahena is just an 8% winner at the claiming level and 0-for-11 with horses switching from AW to dirt. Six-year-old gelding owns 13-4-2-2 record at today’s distance.

#1 Background (9-2): Drops in class for Michael Puhich, a 17% winner first time claiming. Six-year-old gelding owns 9-2-1-2 record at today’s distance. Julien Leparoux (1-for-21 this meet) will pick up the mount. Rail post winning at 28% clip.

5th Race

#1 Fast and Flirty (9-2): Was beaten a neck two back when recording 84 Brisnet Speed rating at today’s distance under Tyler Gaffalione Jan. 28. Cut back to a sprint and raced on all-weather last out but can improve with return to turf and blinkers back on. Brendan Walsh is a 24% winner this meet and Gaffalione will regain the mount — he’s also 5-for-8 paired with Walsh the last 14 days.

#2 For the Flag (4-1): Wired one-mile maiden special weight while posting 89 BRIS figure last out in first start with trainer Jimmy Toner. Will make second start off a layoff (20% winning move for Toner) and race on Lasix a second time. Jorge Ruiz will retain the mount.

#12 Lakota Spirit (8-1): Curlin filly finished far back in fourth last out after breaking maiden at today’s distance in first turf start while under Irad Ortiz Jr. Makes first start in more than 10 months for Chad Brown, a 27% winner with horses coming off a long layoff and a 23% winner with turf starts. Ortiz will regain the mount and has gone 8-3-1-2 last 14 days with Brown.

Also consider:

#11 Pioneer’s Edge (10-1): Josie Carroll wins at 21% clip with horses making first turf start, and the Pioneerof the Nile filly will get high percentage jockey Flavien Prat (22% winner this meet). Returns off more than five-month layoff and has put in solid works ahead of four-year-old debut.

#6 Lilac Girl (8-1): Failed as favorite last out when seventh by 3 3/4 lengths in 7 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer. Jonathan Thomas is a 19% winner with turf starts and an 18% winner first at a route. Luis Saez will pick up the mount. Sharp four-furlong workout April 16 at Keeneland.

*Will take a stand against #10 Tequilera (3-1): Came home a neck second at today’s distance last out in December at Gulfstream. Will make first start in more than four months for Michael Matz, a 10% winner with turf starts. Joel Rosario (15% winner this meet) will pick up the mount on Vancouver filly.

6th Race

#5 Teshima (5-2): Set pace with clear lead but was hooked at top of the stretch and was beaten 3 1/4 lengths by winner in one-mile maiden special weight at Mahoning Valley in first start with Jonathan Wong, who’s winning at a 29% clip this meet. Wong is also a 19% winner with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming and a 26% winner with horses making second start with the trainer. Malibu Moon filly will add blinkers for the first time and picks up Yoel Navas (6-1-1-0 this meet). Bullet five-furlong workout April 14 at Keeneland.

#1 Jubilant Joanie (6-1): Recorded 66 BRIS figures in two career starts when racing 6 1/2 furlongs on Turfway’s all-weather. John Ortiz is an 18% winner at maiden claiming level and with horses switching from AW to dirt. Reylu Gutierrez (19% winner with sprints) will pick up the mount on the Unified filly.

#3 Little Dixie (4-1): Far back in eighth in second career start when racing a mile in a $90K maiden special weight at Oaklawn. Can improve with cutback in distance in first start in 51 days. Ron Moquett is a 14% winner with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming and a 13% winner with shippers. High percentage jockey Tyler Gaffalione will pick up the mount.

Longshot to watch:

#8 Strong Profile (15-1): Tiznow granddaughter is out of a dam who has produced 10 winners from 11 starters. Trainer Andrew McKeever is a 14% winner with first-time starters but just a 6% winner at maiden claiming level. Sharp workout April 5 at Keeneland. James Graham (13% winner sprints) is named to ride.

7th Race

#6 Limited Liability (2-1): Kitten’s Joy four-year-old returns off a more than six-month layoff after facing graded stakes company to close out the 2022 season. Shug McGaughey is a 19% winner with turf starts and a 20% winner with shippers. Regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. will retain the mount.

#1 Buy Me Candy (4-1): Switches back to turf after racing at Turfway in last three. Went 3-0-1-2 while posting BRIS figures in 81-92 range. Will cut back in distance from 1 1/4 miles and will regain rider Vincent Cheminaud (13% winner turf). Nacho Correas strikes at a 24% clip with horses switching from AW to turf and an 11% winner at allowance level. Candy Ride six-year-old owns 7-0-3-2 record at today’s distance.

#3 Alex Joon (3-1): Switches from dirt to turf for Lindsay Schultz, a 19% winner with turf starts and a 38% winner second off the layoff. Flatter six-year-old has been racing at 8 1/2 furlongs and may improve with added distance. Julien Leparoux will regain the mount.

#5 Ready for the Lady (6-1): May improve off the layoff for Roger Attfield, a 16% winner with horses coming off a layoff of 46-90 days. John Velazquez will pick up the mount on More Than Ready four-year-old, who is 5-2-0-1 on turf.

8th Race

#5 Scotland (3-5): The one to beat for trainer Bill Mott, a 25% winner this meet. The Good Magic gelding won last out on debut at today’s distance in an $84K maiden special weight while recording a 94 Brisnet Speed rating, beating a next-out winner by a head. Irad Ortiz Jr. (24% winner in sprints) will pick up the mount.

#3 Tumbarumba (6-1): Oscar Performance gelding failed to hit the board in last two when racing at 1 1/16 miles on turf. Three back, he came home second in the six-furlong Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile Stakes at Fair Grounds and posted an 88 BRIS figure. A return to dirt in third start off a layoff, plus a rider switch to high-percentage jockey Luis Saez, can trigger improvement. Will race on Lasix a second time.

#2 King’s Glory (8-5): Graduated at second asking in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Fair Grounds March 25 while posting a 91 BRIS figure. Will race on Lasix a second time (winning move for Steve Asmussen 21% of the time) and makes second start off a layoff. Joel Rosario will retain the mount on the Speightstown colt. Asmussen just 1-for-22 this meet.

9th Race

AE of note: #13 Tactical Joke (3-1): Win contender if she draws in. Practical Joke filly flashed 85 Brisnet Speed rating on debut when third by 1 1/4 lengths in five-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Jan. 27. Will stretch out to a mile first time for Wesley Ward, a 24% winner first time with routes and a 20% winner in second career starts. Irad Ortiz Jr. is named to ride.

#12 Rosy Tomorrows (5-1): Posted 74 BRIS when fourth on debut in 7 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream March 11. Mike Maker is a 15% winner with second career starts and a 15% winner with first-time route runners. Tyler Gaffalione will pick up the mount. Sharp five-furlong workout April 19.

#9 Boltoro (4-1): Bolt d’Oro filly finished second in last two at a mile and 70 yards on dirt and will switch back to turf for Mark Casse, a 14% winner dirt to turf, and a 16% winner at the maiden special weight level. Will cut back to a mile first time in five starts and was beaten a nose at today’s distance under Adam Beschizza, who retains the mount.

#11 Mended We Stand (15-1): Mendelssohn filly will stretch out after racing five furlongs in last two under Gaffalione. Switches to rider Luis Saez, a 19% winner this meet. Can improve off the layoff for Rusty Arnold, a 16% winner at maiden special weight level.

Also consider:

#3 Astrila (12-1): Far back in seventh last out in five-furlong maiden special weight. Can improve third off the layoff for Bill Mott, a 24% winner with horses going from back-to-back sprints to a route.

#4 Freydis the Red (7-2): Returns off a more than five-month layoff for Kenny McPeek after finishing far back in a one-mile allowance at Churchill. Will race on Lasix the first time (winning move for McPeek 17% of the time) and keeps rider Brian Hernandez Jr.

#6 Summertime Rose (6-1): Recorded 75 BRIS figure when fourth last out in one-mile maiden special weight at Turfway. Tries turf first time for Joe Sharp, a 16% winner with turf starts, in third start off a layoff. Rider switch to Irad Ortiz Jr. is a plus.