Keeneland selections and analysis for Thursday, April 27

Keeneland Racing (Photo by Coady Photography)

April 27th, 2023

We've got a nine-race card on Thursday for the second-to-last day of the Keeneland Spring Meet.

1st Race

#3 Kasimba (3-1): By Kantharos (14% sire win rate), the three-year-old gelding makes debut for Wesley Ward, a 39% winner with horses making first start at maiden claiming level. Walter Rodriguez is named to ride and is 2-for-4 the last 14 days paired with Ward. Sharp four-furlong workout April 16 at Keeneland.

#8 Manchester (8-5): Curlin gelding has raced at a mile or farther in last three and will cut back to six furlongs, a distance from which the four-year-old posted an 81 BRIS figure on debut at Turfway Jan. 26. Jeff Engler is a 16% winner with horses going long to short and a 13% winner at maiden claiming level. Corey Lanerie will inherit the mount.

#4 Valuable Cargo (10-1): Far back in seventh on debut in $70K maiden special weight on Turfway’s all-weather Jan. 6. Will drop down to maiden claiming level in second career start for Sarah Hamilton. Jack Gilligan will pick up the mount. Bullet four-furlong workout April 21 at Keeneland.

2nd Race

#8 Candymaker (8-5): Wesley Ward first-time starter by Twirling Candy out of a Giant’s Causeway mare. Ward is a 20% winner debut turf and a 30% winner with first-time starters. Posted 34-second three-furlong workout April 17 at Keeneland. Joel Rosario (6-3-1-1 paired with Ward the last 14 days) is named to ride.

#10 Fandom (5-2): The other Ward runner is a dangerous win contender as well with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. Sharp workouts ahead of debut. Colt is by a Group 2 winner.

#4 Blast Furnace (8-1): The Factor colt is out of a mare who has produced two winners from three starters but no turf winners. George Weaver is a 12% winner debut turf, and high percentage jockey Luis Saez is named to ride.

3rd Race

#4 Milieu (7-2): Empire Maker filly came home third last out in an $84K maiden special weight on Gulfstream’s turf while posting a 79 Brisnet Speed rating. Two back, she set the early pace and led past the eighth pole, then weakened to finish fifth in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight. Shorter distance may help three-year-old reach the winner’s circle for Bill Mott, a 15% winner turf to dirt and a 19% winner with shippers. Irad Ortiz Jr. will pick up the mount. Bullet four-furlong workout April 12.

#2 Arden’s Assault (8-5): Violence filly came home third by 6 1/2 lengths on debut when racing a mile and 70 yards at Fair Grounds March 18. Posted 75 BRIS figure. Brad Cox is a 27% winner with horses making second career start and a 28% winner with shippers. Will add blinkers the first time here. Luis Saez, a 24% winner with sprints, will pick up the mount.

#3 Union Harmony (5-1): Union Rags filly is out of a Curlin mare who has a winner from two starters. Brendan Walsh is a 10% winner with first-time starters and has gone 5-for-10 paired with Tyler Gaffalione the last 14 days. Bullet four-furlong workout April 16 at Keeneland.

Also consider for horizontals:

#5 Mo Town Mayhem (8-1): Uncle Mo filly finished far back in fifth on debut in one-mile maiden special weight on Gulfstream’s turf April 1. Mark Casse is a 16% winner second career start and a 14% winner with horses going long to short. Brian Hernandez Jr. (17% winner this meet) will pick up the mount. Sharp four-furlong workout April 19 at Keeneland.

#7 Fast N Happy (15-1): Runhappy filly was second two back when racing 6 1/2 furlongs on Turfway’s all-weather while recording an 81 BRIS figure. Finished fifth as the favorite when stretching out to a mile in second career start. Tom Drury is a 24% winner with horses going from a route to a sprint and a 29% winner with beaten favorites. Joe Talamo (17% winner this meet) will pick up the mount. Fast trio of workouts at Churchill this month.

4th Race

#7 Sweet Beauty (7-2): Maclean’s Music four-year-old makes first start off the claim for Alexis Claire (a 27% winning move for the trainer) after finishing third at today’s distance against tougher at Fair Grounds March 3. Will pick up Reylu Gutierrez, an 18% winner in sprints and a 15% winner this meet.

#2 Economic Hangover (2-1): Cuts back to a sprint after racing at or near 1 1/16 miles in last four on all-weather. Saffie Joseph is a 24% winner at claiming level and a 25% winner with horses going long to short. Irad Ortiz Jr. will regain the mount. Makes first start on dirt.

#3 Cami Cat (3-1): Dialed In filly romped to a 4 1/2-length victory last out at today’s distance when racing on Turfway’s all-weather March 30. Eric Foster is a 15% winner at claiming level but 0-for-26 with horses switching from AW to dirt. Gerardo Corrales will retain the mount.

Longshots to watch:

#1 Spiritcatcher (15-1): Won two back in 6 1/2-furlong maiden claimer on Turfway’s all-weather while posting a 75 BRIS figure. Stretched out to a mile and was no threat when seventh at the same track March 30. Can improve with cutback in distance and will pick up Corey Lanerie, a 15% winner in sprints.

#4 Fast Gal (20-1): Makes fourth career start for Dale Romans. Graduated at today’s distance last out in a maiden claimer at Turfway Jan. 25. Romans is a 24% winner at claiming level and a 23% winner with horses coming off a maiden win. Chris Landeros will retain the mount.

5th Race

#5 Wicked Fast (5-2): Came home fourth by 2 3/4 lengths in the Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream April 1. Posted Brisnet Speed figures in 94-97 range while facing graded stakes company in last three and will drop in class today while switching to high percentage jockey Tyler Gaffalione, a 20% winner on turf. Mike Maker is an 18% winner with shippers and a 15% winner at allowance level. Tourist gelding owns 14-2-2-3 record on turf.

#4 The Grey Wizard (7-5): Beaten 1 3/4 lengths when fifth in the 1 1/4-mile San Marcos (G3) at Santa Anita Feb. 5. Will get class relief and may improve with extra distance. Graham Motion is a 14% winner with horses coming off a layoff of 46-90 days. John Velazquez will retain the mount.

#6 Six Minus (8-1): Flashed 90 BRIS figure when scoring a three-length victory in 1 1/2-mile allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Feb. 3. Moves up in class for Todd Pletcher, a 25% winner with horses that won their last race, and a 21% winner with horses coming off layoffs of 46-90 days. Irad Ortiz Jr. will retain the mount.

Also consider:

#9 Sir for Sure (9-2): Posted 91 BRIS figure when winning Breeders’ Stakes at Woodbine last out in October. Makes first start off a long layoff for Mark Casse, a 13% winner this meet. Joel Rosario will pick up the mount. Sharp workout April 19 at Keeneland.

#1 Kitten Mischief (12-1): Into Mischief gelding won at today’s distance last out in allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream. Jonathan Thomas is a 19% winner with horses that won their last race and a 14% winner with horses coming off a layoff of more than 90 days. Luis Saez will pick up the mount with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard Six Minus.

6th Race

#8 De Joria (3-1): California Chrome daughter was third last out in a one-mile allowance optional claimer at Turfway while posting an 80 Brisnet Speed rating. Two back, she was beaten by a nose against the same class level at the same distance. The stretch-out to 8 1/2 furlongs can help the four-year-old get to the winner’s circle for Mark Casse, an 18% winner first time claiming and a 16% winner third off the layoff. Tyler Gaffalione will pick up the mount on the filly, who has hit the board in all five career starts.

#1 Yo Puedo (8-1): Won at today’s distance three back while recording an 85 Brisnet Speed rating in a maiden claimer at Churchill in June. Tried the same distance against tougher next out and set the early pace before giving way to finish a distant fourth at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Last out, the Flat Out four-year-old returned off a long layoff to finish fourth in a five-furlong allowance at Hawthorne. Will stretch back out in first start in 46 days for Robert Medina, an 18% winner at the claiming level, and Florent Geroux will pick up the mount (21% winner with routes). Sharp workout April 20. Rail post is winning at a 24% clip.

#2 She’s All Class (9-2): Daughter of Gun Runner came home last of seven in a six-furlong allowance at Oaklawn last out and will stretch out to a route distance for the first time since September, when she finished ninth in a one-mile maiden special weight on turf. She’ll regain rider Luis Saez, who won with the four-year-old in a seven-furlong maiden special weight on Keeneland’s main track last October and placed second in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance at Churchill in his two starts with the filly. Mike Maker is a 20% winner third off the layoff and a 23% winner first time claiming. She’s All Class posted a pair of sharp workouts ahead of this event.

#6 Pentagon (9-5): Constitution five-year-old will switch to dirt after finishing fifth at today’s distance on Gulfstream’s all-weather while recording a 74 Brisnet Speed rating. Drops in class for Shug McGaughey, a 40% winner at the claiming level, and will get Irad Ortiz Jr. Has not posted a Speed figure in the 80s since breaking her maiden on Keeneland’s turf at today’s distance back in October 2021.

7th Race

#5 Be My Sunshine (7-2): Won on debut when racing 7 1/2 furlongs on turf at Gulfstream, then stretched out to 1 1/16 miles and came home second by 2 1/4 lengths. Frosted filly will make first start in 46 days for Saffie Joseph, an 18% winner with turf starts. Tyler Gaffalione will retain the mount.

#3 Venencia (5-2): Won on debut when racing 1 3/16 miles on all-weather at Chantilly Nov. 24. Will make first start on turf for Chad Brown, a winning move 23% of the time for the trainer, while racing on Lasix the first time. Irad Ortiz Jr. will pick up the mount.

#12 Mo Shiro (12-1): Uncle Mo filly moves up in class after wiring a maiden special weight at today’s distance on Fair Grounds’ turf. Wayne Catalano is a 16% winner with shippers, and Florent Geroux (13% winner on turf) will retain the mount. Sharp pair of recent workouts at Churchill.

Also consider:

#8 Miss Riddler (10-1): Won on debut when racing a mile at Ellis Park in July. Will try turf the first time for Eddie Kenneally, an 11% winner this meet and an 18% winner with horses coming off a long layoff. Dialed In filly will race on Lasix the first time. Luis Saez (21% winner this meet) will inherit the mount. Solid works at Churchill the past month.

#6 Desert Tempest (10-1): Broke maiden last out when racing a mile and 70 yards at Fair Grounds. Two back, the American Pharoah filly was beaten 1 1/4 lengths when racing 8 1/2 furlongs on turf. Brendan Walsh is a 20% winner third off the layoff and a 14% winner dirt to turf. Jareth Loveberry will stay in the saddle.

AE of note:

#13 Silver Stripes (15-1): Can improve off the layoff for Cherie DeVaux (21% winner this meet). Joel Rosario will pick up the mount.

#16 Jenny Lind (15-1): Comes off maiden win at today’s distance on all-weather. Steve Asmussen a 12% winner first time turf and an 18% winner with horses returning off 46- to 90-day layoff. Mendelssohn filly will keep Walter Rodriguez in the saddle.

8th Race

#5 Braganza (5-2): Came home a length second last out in six-furlong allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds Feb. 23. May improve with added distance in first start in more than two months for Eddie Kenneally, a 17% winner with horses coming off a layoff of 46-90 days and a 15% winner at allowance level. Luis Saez will pick up the mount and strikes at a 23% rate in sprints. Bullet four-furlong workout April 14.

#3 Send for Me (7-1): May improve with rider switch to Florent Geroux, a 31% winner in sprints. Two back, the Into Mischief filly recorded an 88 BRIS figure when second at today’s distance at Tampa Bay Downs. Tried AW last out and weakened to finish sixth as the favorite. Jonathan Thomas is a 16% winner at allowance level and a 23% winner with beaten favorites.

#7 Non Violence (3-1): Violence filly will return to a sprint for Bret Calhoun after failing as the favorite last out at a mile and 70 yards. Reylu Gutierrez (15% winner this meet) will retain the mount. Sharp works ahead of first start in more than two months.

Also consider for horizontals:

#1 Ain’t Broke (8-1): May improve with a return to dirt and a cutback in distance. Led top of the stretch but placed second two and there back when racing 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds. Bret Calhoun is a 21% winner turf to dirt and a 24% winner with horses going long to short. Corey Lanerie will retain the mount.

#2 Story Hour (12-1): Creative Cause filly flashed 84 Brisnet Speed rating last out when fourth in 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer on Turfway’s all-weather. Can improve with cutback in distance for Ian Wilkes, a 20% winner with horses switching from AW to turf and a 12% winner at allowance level. Gray four-year-old makes first start in nearly two months and posted a pair of sharp workouts at Keeneland April 14 and April 21. Chris Landeros will stay in the saddle.

9th Race

#12 Border War (7-2): War Front colt was a two-length second last out when racing 1 1/2 miles on Gulfstream’s turf; recorded 78 Brisnet Speed figure. Put in solid workouts ahead of first start in more than two months for Shug McGaughey, a 19% winner with turf starts. Tyler Gaffalione (20% winner on turf) will retain the mount.

#2 King Curlin (10-1): May improve second start off the layoff and a switch to turf for Brittany Vanden Berg, a 21% winner with turf starts. Curlin four-year-old is 0-for-6 lifetime but will race on the grass a second time. Came home second on debut in a one-mile maiden special weight on turf at Kentucky Downs back in 2021. Chris Emigh will retain the mount.

#1 Gettleman (9-2): Finished third on debut while recording 85 Brisnet Speed figure in 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Fair Grounds March 19. Will make second start for Brendan Walsh, a 14% winner second career race and a 15% winner first time on turf. The Hard Spun gelding is out of a Distorted Humor mare with one winner from two starters but no turf winners. Irad Ortiz will pick up the mount on the closer. Solid works at Keeneland this past month.

#10 Missionaire (5-2): Noble Mission colt set the pace inside but was caught on the wire by a late surging outer foe to finish a head second last out in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight at Fair Grounds. Christophe Clement is a 21% winner with shippers and a 22% winner at maiden special weight level. Joel Rosario (14% winner this meet) will retain the mount.

#9 Caroom (12-1): The Flintshire colt was beaten half a length last out in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on Fair Grounds’ turf. Trainer Wayne Catalano is a 19% winner with turf starts and a 15% winner with horses coming off a layoff of 46-90 days. Jareth Loveberry (21% winner on turf) will regain the mount.