Kentucky Derby: 6 overlooked side effects of the postponement

The postponement of the 2020 Kentucky Derby (G1), from May 2 to Sept. 5, has prompted racing fans and handicappers to endlessly debate how the change will affect the outcome of the race.

A few topics have dominated the conversations. How will the postponement change the complexion of the field? Will a full field of 20 horses face the starter, or will fewer than 20 enter for the first time since 2003? Will COVID-19 travel restrictions influence which jockeys ride in the race?

But these are just a few of the ways a Kentucky Derby in September will differ from a traditional “Run for the Roses.” Here are six other side effects to analyze when considering the influence of the postponement.

1. Major form reversals are unlikely

Many have discussed how the postponement of the Kentucky Derby will change the dynamics of the field and how horses who would have been contenders on the first Saturday in May (Nadal, Charlatan, etc.) are no longer in contention for the first Saturday in September.

But a subtle factor is being overlooked. By September, 3-year-old Thoroughbreds are much closer to full maturity than in May, so the major form reversals common in the spring are less likely to be seen by the end of summer.

The fastest colts are likely to remain in top form, while slower contenders are unlikely to suddenly develop new gears.

2. Late foals won’t be disadvantaged

Did you know late foals (those born in April and May) have historically been at a disadvantage in the Kentucky Derby? Since 1990, 20 of the 30 Kentucky Derby winners have been born in February (10) and March (10), leaving foals born in April (6), May (3), and January (1) to split the remainder.

But with extra time to mature, April and May foals won’t be at the same disadvantage in the 2020 Kentucky Derby. Consider the last 30 winners of the Travers (G1), the prestigious “Midsummer Derby” traditionally held in late August. Like the Kentucky Derby, the Travers typically attracts the best 3-year-olds in North America, but its winners have skewed younger. April (10) and March (9) have been the most productive birth months, followed by May (7), February (3), and January (1).

Since this year’s Kentucky Derby has essentially taken the Travers’ place on the 2020 racing calendar, don’t be afraid to favor horses born in March, April, and May, and lean against runners born in January and February. The evidence suggests any advantage enjoyed by early foals on the first Saturday in May will evaporate by the first Saturday in September.

3. Key contenders have already run 1 1/4 miles

In a normal year, it’s rare for a Kentucky Derby contender to arrive at Churchill Downs with experience at the 1 1/4-mile distance of the race. But the postponement has eliminated this aspect, and expected favorite Tiz the Law will enter the Kentucky Derby off a runaway victory in the 1 1/4-mile Travers.

With this traditional question mark already answered, Tiz the Law has emerged as one of the most formidable Derby favorites in decades.

4. Crowd noise won’t be a factor

Normally, the Kentucky Derby draws a crowd in excess of 160,000, but this year, attendance will be limited to just 23,000.

That will benefit the skittish Thoroughbreds who might otherwise become unsettled by screaming fans during the lead-up to the race. We’re less likely to see horses leave their race in the paddock or post parade because of nerves.

5. Traditional prep schedules have been upended

The most important Kentucky Derby prep races are typically held three to five weeks out from the main event. Since 1956, only one Derby winner (Animal Kingdom in 2011) has won the Derby off a layoff of six weeks or more, and since 2000, the vast majority of Derby winners contested only two or three winter/spring prep races.

But the postponement of the Kentucky Derby has spread out the major prep races from March to August, which prompted a wide variety of unorthodox prep schedules.

At least half a dozen Derby contenders — Authentic, Ny Traffic, King Guillermo, Enforceable, Major Fed, and Finnick the Fierce — will enter the race off layoffs ranging from seven weeks to four months in length. And the majority of Derby contenders have already run four or more races this year, which gives them a deeper foundation.

You can throw historical trends out the window when handicapping the 2020 Kentucky Derby. We’re in uncharted territory, and we might as well embrace it.

6. The weather should be warmer and drier

May is the rainiest month in Kentucky, and six of the last 11 editions of the Kentucky Derby have been contested over a wet track. Even the fast track of 2016 was wet in places, with standing water on the racing surface.

The good news is, September is a much drier month in Kentucky, with sunnier skies and significantly warmer temperatures. With luck, the Kentucky Derby will be contested over a truly fast track for the first time since 2015, which will provide a fair racing surface for everyone.