Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Bullard impresses in debut

For the fifth straight year, TwinSpires Edge presents the Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch series. Each week, we’ll highlight recent maiden winners with possible 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) aspirations.

We’re kicking things off on a high note. The prestigious Saratoga summer meet concluded over Labor Day weekend, and a handful of maiden winners from closing week could soon be seen on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

For example, there's Dapper Moon, a son of Malibu Moon who's trained by Dallas Stewart. Malibu Moon is the sire of 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb while Stewart has saddled Derby runners-up Golden Soul (2013) and Commanding Curve (2014), so Dapper Moon has the potential to shine on the first Saturday in May.

Dapper Moon debuted July 20 at Saratoga, finishing second in a six-furlong maiden special weight won by Incentive Pay, who returned to finish third in Saratoga’s Hopeful (G1) on closing day. Dapper Moon stuck to the same class level for his second start, entering a seven-furlong maiden special weight last Saturday. The result? An easy win. The gray colt tracked splits of :22.79 and :46.62 in third place before surging clear down the homestretch to dominate by five lengths in 1:25.04.

The form of the July 20 maiden heat was further flattered by Filoso, the fourth-place finisher. The Chad Summers trainee stretched out over one mile for a Thursday maiden special weight and proved much the best, rating in sixth behind fractions of :24.71 and :48.28 before launching a sweeping rally to seize command and win easing up by 3 1/2 lengths. A son of City of Light, the sire of 2024 Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness, Filoso reached the finish line in 1:39.00.

There was also a flashy debut winner at Saratoga last week. On Saturday, Executive Order emerged in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for horses who brought a final bid of $50,000 or less at their most recent auction. The gelded son of Unified was always close to the :22.00 and :45.63 pace fractions before drawing off in the final furlong to win by 7 3/4 lengths in 1:17.98. Philip Serpe trains the Maryland-bred juvenile.

We’ll also give a quick mention to Mobetterthangood, who won a seven-furlong maiden special weight for New York-breds on Labor Day. Trained by Kenny McPeek, who won the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan, the son of Mo Town raced eighth through an opening quarter in :23.56, advanced to fifth through half a mile in :46.83 and six furlongs in 1:12.19, and made a late surge through the final furlong to score by one length in 1:25.45. Not bad for a first start.

Saratoga drew plenty of attention during closing week, but on the opposite side of the country, Del Mar put forth an intriguing six-furlong maiden special weight Sunday. Seven horses faced the starter, with Kalea Bay, a second-time starter from the barn of Bob Baffert, favored at 3-5.

Kalea Bay ran well, setting fractions of :21.93, :45.19, and :57.63 to open up a three-length lead in midstretch. But then from out of the clouds came Bullard, a first-time starter trained by Michael McCarthy. The son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner trailed the field early but gobbled up ground down the homestretch to win by 1 1/4 lengths in 1:10.32.

This was an eye-catching performance on a couple of levels. One, Kalea Bay wasn’t particularly tiring — he pulled six lengths clear of the third-place finisher. Two, Bullard ran his final furlong in a solid :12.17, per the Equibase GPS result chart. That was even quicker than his penultimate furlong in :12.31.

Bullard sold for $675,000 as a yearling, so expectations are surely high for this half-brother to Audubon Oaks winner Mundaye Call. It’s worth noting McCarthy wins only 10% of the time with first-time starters (lower than his 16% overall win rate), and his runners often improve their second time out. McCarthy has already enjoyed Triple Crown success with 2021 Preakness (G1) winner Rombauer, so don’t be surprised if Bullard follows a similar progression and develops into a serious threat for the spring classics.

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Top maiden winner of the week: Bullard

Honorable mention: Dapper Moon