Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Chancer McPatrick

Chancer McPatrick ranks among the most accomplished two-year-olds of 2024 after winning the Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1).

Prevailing in the Champagne earned Chancer McPatrick 10 qualification points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. With two Grade 1 wins under his belt, the bay colt is an early favorite for the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1). But will his deep-closing style prove successful over 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May? His pedigree suggests it’s not a given.

Chancer McPatrick comes from the first crop of foals sired by McKinzie, who won the seven-furlong Malibu (G1), 1 1/16-mile Los Alamitos Futurity (G1), 1 1/8-mile Pennsylvania Derby (G1), and 1 1/8-mile Whitney (G1) during his accomplished career. McKinzie was versatile from a distance standpoint, but 1 1/4 miles seemed to stretch the limits of his stamina. He went 0-for-3 over the Kentucky Derby distance, most notably finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and Santa Anita H. (G1) after leading with a furlong remaining in both races.

McKinzie’s prowess in sprints and short routes isn’t necessarily surprising given his own pedigree. He’s a son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, whose best dirt runners have thrived racing 1 1/8 miles or less. These include the multiple Grade 1 winners Maxfield, Sweet Reason, and Wedding Toast, as well as the Grade 1-winning sprinters Speaker’s Corner and Aubby K.

Furthermore, McKinzie’s dam — Runway Model — proved best racing 1 1/16 miles, winning the Golden Rod (G2) and Alcibiades (G2). She’s a daughter of Petionville, a three-time graded stakes winner racing 1 1/8 miles or less.

The bottom half of Chancer McPatrick’s pedigree appears stouter at first glance, but appearances can be deceiving. His dam is Bernadreamy, who scored her lone victory in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight over the Churchill Downs main track. She’s a daughter of Bernardini out of Dream Empress, a cross that gives off mixed signals from a stamina standpoint.

Bernardini needs no introduction. The champion three-year-old male of 2006 won the 1 3/16-mile Preakness (G1), 1 1/4-mile Travers (G1), and 1 1/4-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) during his accomplished career. He’s proved to be a source of stamina at stud, with his progeny winning at a solid average distance of 7.5 furlongs. The best of them include Travers winners Alpha and Stay Thirsty; the latter showed the requisite stamina to finish second in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont (G1).

But as a broodmare sire — the role he plays in the pedigree of Chancer McPatrick — Bernardini has been a bit less reliable as a source of classic stamina. Catholic Boy won the Travers and Belmont Derby (G1) over 1 1/4 miles, and Colonel Liam won over as far as 1 3/16 mile in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), but daughters of Bernardini have also foaled a bevy of horses who did their best work racing 1 1/8 miles or less. Perhaps significantly, these include Speaker’s Corner and Maxfield, the above-mentioned sons of Street Sense. If the Street Sense/Bernardini cross is producing horses who are best racing 1 1/8 miles or less, it won’t be shocking if crossing Street Sense’s son McKinzie with a Bernardini mare produces a similar outcome.

As for Dream Empress, she won the 1 1/16-mile Alcibiades (G1) and finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). Her sire, Bernstein, was a sprinter best known for siring Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) winners Tepin and Karakontie. Dream Empress has done okay producing route runners; in addition to Bernadreamy, she’s the dam of Johny’s Bobby and No Delusion, who recorded three victories apiece over distances from one mile to 1 1/16 miles. But on the whole, this portion of Chancer McPatrick’s pedigree is filled with milers rather than classic types.

It’s not impossible for horses bred to shine over 1 1/8 miles or less to win over 1 1/4 miles if the conditions are right. Chancer McPatrick can’t be counted out of the Kentucky Derby mix from a pedigree perspective, but on the whole his bloodlines do suggest distances shorter than 1 1/4 miles might be his preference.