Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Forbidden Kingdom
Forbidden Kingdom winning the San Felipe S. (G2) at Santa Anita (Photo by Horsephotos)
March 8th, 2022
Speed is the name of the game for Forbidden Kingdom, who joined the Road to the Kentucky Derby with a tour-de-force victory in the San Felipe S. (G2) at Santa Anita.
Forbidden Kingdom is a pure pacesetter who has shown the ability to stretch his blinding speed over 1 1/16 miles. But can his frontrunning style translate to success over 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby (G1)?
That’s an interesting question. Certainly the top half of Forbidden King’s pedigree holds potential for handling classic distances. His sire is none other than American Pharoah, the 2015 Triple Crown who descends from a sire line absolutely stacked with classic-winning and classic-siring stallions. American Pharoah’s sire line includes 2009 Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile, 2003 Belmont S. (G1) winner Empire Maker, and 1990 Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled.
American Pharoah himself has yet to sire a classic winner, but his progeny win at the lofty average distance of 7.7 furlongs, and all of his top-level winners to date have scored their signature victories running one mile or farther.
(Interestingly, American Pharoah’s progeny have enjoyed roughly equal success on dirt and turf, with dirt stars like Grade 1 Beholder Mile winner As Time Goes By appearing alongside grass runners such as Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Four Wheel Drive.)
Forbidden Kingdom Pedigree
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Empire Maker, 2000 | |||
Pioneerof the Nile, 2006 | |||
Star of Goshen, 1994 | |||
American Pharoah, 2012 | |||
Yankee Gentleman, 1999 | |||
Littleprincessemma, 2006 | |||
Exclusive Rosette, 1993 | |||
Forbidden Kingdom, 2019 | |||
Carson City, 1987 | |||
Five Star Day, 1996 | |||
Reggie V, 1990 | |||
Just Louise, 2008 | |||
Mt. Livermore, 1981 | |||
Kings Lynn, 1994 | |||
Til Forbid, 1988 |
The stout genetics in the top half of Forbidden Kingdom’s pedigree will hopefully balance the speedier genetics coming from his female family. Forbidden Kingdom’s dam is Just Louise, an early-maturing sprinter who won the Debutante S. (G3) as a juvenile. Just Louise, in turn, is a daughter of Five Star Day, a Grade 1-place sprinter whose three graded triumphs came dashing six furlongs.
Handicapping horses by analyzing their pedigrees can be a helpful way to identify which runners are suited to particular race conditions.
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Five Star Day has tended to reproduce himself at stud, siring sprinters (like Grade 2 Commonwealth S. winner Eternal Star) more than routers. His progeny win at an average distance of 6.2 furlongs, indicating Five Star Day is more reliable as a source of speed than stamina.
Clearly, some of this speed has passed on to Forbidden Kingdom, who has twice shown the ability to run a sub-:44 half-mile. But the stamina of American Pharoah has thus far carried Forbidden Kingdom over longer trips, suggesting Forbidden Kingdom can’t be dismissed as a threat to win the Kentucky Derby in gate-to-wire fashion.
