Kentucky Derby preps: How productive is the Holy Bull?

For many years, the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park has ranked as a prominent stepping stone on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

The Holy Bull established its reputation during the 1990s and 2000s, when it cranked out three Kentucky Derby (G1) winners and five Derby trifecta finishers from only 23 starters—a 13% win rate and a 22% in-the-money rate.

But the Holy Bull has lost some luster in recent years. During the 2010s and 2020s, the race failed to produce a Kentucky Derby winner and saw only three of its 29 Derby starters (10%) finish in the top three. The win rate of Holy Bull alumni decreased by 100%, while the in-the-money rate fell by 55%.

Holy Bull alumni in the Kentucky Derby, by decade

Early success in the 1990s

The Holy Bull debuted in 1990 as the Preview Stakes with a purse of $200,000, though this prize shrank to $75,000 a few years later. The first two editions took place in April, after which the Preview shifted to its current January/early February positioning on the calendar.

The change in date reaped a major reward in 1994, when Go for Gin won the Preview and later added the Kentucky Derby to his win tally. Ironically, his Derby triumph came at the expense of Holy Bull, the clear favorite and eventual 1994 Horse of the Year.

Go for Gin’s Preview/Kentucky Derby double led to the race achieving Grade 3 status in 1995. Shortly thereafter, Holy Bull retired from racing, and the Preview was renamed in his honor starting with the 1996 edition.

Achieving Grade 3 status—and earning a $100,000 purse in 1997—further boosted the profile of the Holy Bull. In 1997, Holy Bull third-place finisher Captain Bodgit went on to finish second in the Kentucky Derby.

The Holy Bull ended its first decade having produced one winner and one runner-up from nine Kentucky Derby starters, an 11% win rate and a 22% in-the-money rate.

Two Derby winners in the 2000s

The Holy Bull reached its peak of productivity in the 2000s.

In 2003, a New York-bred gelding named Funny Cide finished fifth in the Holy Bull. A few months later he upset the Kentucky Derby, becoming the second Holy Bull starter to claim victory in the Run for the Roses.

In 2005, the Holy Bull purse received a boost to $150,000. As if in celebration, that year’s Holy Bull winner—Closing Argument—went on to finish second by half a length in the Kentucky Derby.

The following year, Barbaro won the Holy Bull as part of a three-year-old campaign peaking with a 6 1/2-length romp in the Kentucky Derby.

All told, the first decade of the 2000s saw 14 Holy Bull starters compete in the Kentucky Derby, recording two wins (14%) and one second (7%) for a 21% in-the-money rate similar to the 1990s.

Number of Holy Bull starters who won the Kentucky Derby, by decade

Diminished productivity in the 2010s and 2020s

Riding the wave of momentum generated by Funny Cide and Barbaro, the Holy Bull became a target for some of the best three-year-olds in training. A purse increase to $400,000 in 2011 helped accelerate this trend.

During the 2010s and 2020s, a bevy of top-notch racehorses competed in the Holy Bull, including champion juveniles Hansen, Shanghai Bobby, Classic Empire, and Fierceness.

The quality of competition allowed the Holy Bull to carry Grade 2 status from 2014 through 2019. However, the Holy Bull struggled to maintain its early success at producing serious Kentucky Derby contenders.

In the 2010s, a record 20 Holy Bull starters went on to compete in the Run for the Roses. None managed to win, and only Mucho Macho Man (third in 2011) and Audible (third in 2018) finished in the top three. The percentage of Holy Bull starters recording top-three finishes in the Run for the Roses fell to 10%.

The trend has continued in the 2020s, when the race returned to Grade 3 status. The first half of the decade yielded nine Kentucky Derby starters, but only one (11%) managed to finish in the top three, that being 2020 Derby runner-up Tiz the Law.

Awaiting the next Barbaro

As of this writing a Holy Bull starter hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby since Barbaro in 2006. That’s a long dry spell for a race that once produced three Derby winners in a span of 13 years.

One factor in play is prize money. Recent purse cuts (the race was worth $250,000 in 2024) have made the Holy Bull a less attractive target compared to other Derby preps—such as the $1 million Southwest (G3) and $400,000 Lecomte (G3)—held around the same time.

Trends can change quickly in horse racing, and perhaps a rebound for the Holy Bull is right around the corner. But the current trajectory suggests Kentucky Derby handicappers should look toward other preps to find the likeliest Run for the Roses contenders.