Kentucky Derby Top 10: Honor A. P. leads the charge into winter

Although three Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races took place over the last two weeks, the results did little to change my rankings.

A thrilling finish between Thousand Words and Anneau d’Or in the December 7 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) kept these two promising colts high on my watch list, though I’ve elected to drop Anneau d’Or from No. 1 to No. 2, because he had every chance to win but failed to finish the job.

Shotski joined the Derby trail with an upset victory in the Remsen Stakes (G2), though his victory came on a day when all four graded stakes races were won in gate-to-wire fashion. That left me to wonder if he benefited from a speed-favoring track.

Most recently Shoplifted was a gritty winner in the Remington Springboard Mile, but I question whether Shoplifted has the pedigree to handle 1 1/4 miles. I was more impressed with the performance of Springboard Mile runner-up Answer In, who lacked racing room down the lane, but a three-way photo finish in a Derby prep is usually indicative of a fairly average race.

I’ll expect to shake up my Top 10 significantly when the Derby trail heats back up in January, but for now, here’s how I rank the top contenders.

1. Honor A. P.

Transitioned from Del Mar back to Santa Anita, he breezed an easy five furlongs December 11. Trainer John Shirreffs is taking a patient approach with this exciting colt, which is more often than not a smart move on the Derby trail.

2. Anneau d’Or

He came up short in the Los Alamitos Futurity, but wasn’t beaten by much after he raced behind horses over a wet track. More concerning was his apparent unwillingness to put away runners once he reached even terms.

3. Thousand Words

He showed guts to turn back Anneau d’Or in the Los Alamitos Futurity. Bob Baffert is confident Thousand Words will thrive running long, though the dam side of this colt’s pedigree is geared strongly toward sprinting.

4. Maxfield

This colt should return to Brendan Walsh’s barn at Palm Meadows sometime next month, which places him on a tight schedule to qualify for the Derby. The form of his Breeders’ Futurity (G1) triumph was flattered when fourth-place finisher Ajaaweed returned to finish second in the Remsen.

5. Dennis’ Moment

With only two prep runs scheduled for this talented son of Tiznow, don’t expect to see him back on the work tab any time soon. A winter break could be a great move to leave him fresh for the Triple Crown.

6. Storm the Court

The form of his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) victory received a boost when runner-up Anneau d’Or placed in the Los Alamitos Futurity and seventh-place finisher Shoplifted returned to claim the Remington Springboard Mile.

7. Independence Hall

He’ll kick off 2020 in the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct, where we’ll see if he can repeat the massive speed figures from his Nashua (G3) triumph.

8. Eight Rings

Baffert has Eight Rings penciled in for the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2) on February 9, which should serve as a nice sprint sharpener for this quirky colt.

9. Tiz the Law

A tough-luck loss in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) seemed like the result of a troubled trip more than anything else. He’ll seek a rebound in Florida this winter.

10. Dieu du Vin

He skipped the second leg of the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby and slipped to second place on the leaderboard as a result, but he’ll have plenty of chances to raise his profile this winter. The February 16 Hyacinth Stakes figures to be his next major target.