2024 Kentucky Derby Betting Picks and Expert Predictions

Churchill Downs opening day (Photo by Coady Media)

May 4th, 2024

According to the long time Dosage Index and Birthdate methodology...

According to the Dosage theory as applied to the Derby, an Index of 4.00 is supposed to be the threshold; anything higher connotes a stamina concern.

The two who surpass this so-called limit are both premier contenders, Catching Freedom at 5.67 and Fierceness at 5.00. Yet the minute you look at their actual pedigrees, the numbers make no sense.

In fact, Catching Freedom has already won the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2) with a sustained rally. That's as close as you can get to demonstrative proof, in the laboratory of the racetrack, that another sixteenth wouldn't be an issue.

John Mucciolo's top picks for the Kentucky Derby

#4 Catching Freedom
#19 Resilience
#2 Sierra Leone
#12 Track Phantom

Ashley Anderson Kentucky Derby Bets

Sierra Leone
Catching Freedom
Honor Marie

James Scully Kentucky Derby Bets

Sierra Leone
Just a Touch
Track Phantom

Vance Hanson Kentucky Derby Bets

Catching Freedom
Sierra Leone
Fierceness

Kellie Reilly Kentucky Derby Bets

Forever Young (JPN)
Sierra Leone
Fierceness

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Thoughts by Kellie Reilly:

Read her full analysis here.

As Fierceness aims to become only the third Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) champion to win the Derby, after Street Sense (2007) and Nyquist (2016), much of the discussion focuses on his feast-or-famine tendencies. He either flaunts his brilliant speed in spectacular fashion – his Saratoga debut, the Breeders’ Cup, and the Florida Derby (G1) by a pole from Catalytic and Grand Mo the First – or he disappoints.

Trainer Chad Brown has gone close in the Derby before, with champion juvenile Good Magic placing second to eventual Triple Crown winner Justify (2018) and Zandon (2022) looming before finishing third. Yet Sierra Leone arguably represents his best chance so far. If not for losing focus through inexperience in the Remsen (G2), the $2.3 million son of Gun Runner would boast a perfect record. The one concern, however, is whether the powerful closer can navigate through the field from post 2. If Sierra Leone gets racing luck, or makes his own, he’ll come charging late.

Forever Young rates as the leading chance ever from Japan, with a perfect 5-for-5 mark to his credit. Less encouraging are the woeful stats for horses in general graduating from the UAE Derby (G2), but Forever Young could be the one to rewrite the record book.