2025 Kentucky Derby Brisnet Late Pace rating report

In the 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1), only six entrants had posted a triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace rating in either of their previous two starts. This small group produced upset winner Mystik Dan plus runner-up Sierra Leone and fourth-place finisher Catching Freedom.

Late Pace ratings have done well identifying potential Kentucky Derby winners in recent years. Nine of the last 14 Kentucky Derby winners posted a triple-digit Late Pace rating in one or both of their final two races leading up to Derby Day.

The list includes Triple Crown winners American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018) plus betting favorites Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016), and Always Dreaming (2017), but also double-digit longshot winners Animal Kingdom (2011), I’ll Have Another (2012), Rich Strike (2022), and the above-mentioned Mystik Dan.

Here are the last two Late Pace ratings posted by each 2025 Kentucky Derby contender, excluding Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe, a pair of international shippers for whom Late Pace ratings are unavailable:

Takeaways

Only seven horses, including also-eligible entrant Baeza, have managed to post a triple-digit Late Pace rating in one or both of their last two races. Five have done so in their latest start: Final Gambit (112), Journalism (109), Baeza (102), Flying Mohawk (102), and Rodriguez (101). Four achieved the standard two starts back: Journalism (113), Owen Almighty (108), Sovereignty (103), and Baeza (101).

Journalism and Baeza, the top two finishers from the Santa Anita Derby (G1), are the only Kentucky Derby horses entering off back-to-back triple-digit Late Pace ratings. Actually, Journalism has posted four straight triple-digit numbers. He posted a 104 when taking the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) three starts back and a 101 when breaking his maiden four starts ago. From a Late Pace rating perspective, Journalism is hands-down the horse to beat in the Kentucky Derby.

The Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) was one of the strongest Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers from a Late Pace rating perspective. The victorious Final Gambit earned a 112, the highest last-out number in the Kentucky Derby field, while runner-up Flying Mohawk earned a respectable 102.

The Wood Memorial (G2) also produced reasonably strong Late Pace ratings. Gate-to-wire winner Rodriguez posted a 101 while runner-up Grande earned a 97, respectively the fifth-best and co-sixth-best last-out numbers in the Derby field.

Several accomplished horses who appeared to be closing strongly in their final Kentucky Derby preps earned modest Late Pace ratings. Burnham Square got up in the shadow of the wire to beat pacesetter East Avenue in the Blue Grass (G1), but they respectively earned Late Pace ratings of 89 and 83.

Sandman and Publisher closed from far back to run 1-2 in the Arkansas Derby (G1), but earned Late Pace ratings of 88 and 87.

Tiztastic rallied from 9 1/2 lengths behind to win the Louisiana Derby (G2) over midpack closer Chunk of Gold, but they ran Late Pace ratings of 81 and 72, two of the five lowest last-out numbers in the Kentucky Derby field.

By averaging the last two Late Pace ratings earned by each horse in the Kentucky Derby field, the top six U.S.-based contenders are as follows. All have posted at least one triple-digit number in their last two starts:

In 2024, the Kentucky Derby third- and fifth-place finishers were Forever Young and T O Password of Japan, who entered without any Late Pace ratings on their records. By mixing and matching the strongest-finishing U.S. contenders with the international challengers, a bettor would have had every chance to cash a $1 Super High 5 ticket worth $316,920.10.

Perhaps the same strategy will reap dividends in 2025. Bet the horses with recent triple-digit Late Pace ratings alongside Japanese raiders Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe, and you might just cash a lucrative exotic wager.