2025 Kentucky Derby Brisnet Speed Rating report

Thirteen of the last 15 Kentucky Derby (G1) winners had registered a triple-digit Brisnet Speed rating. The exceptions were 80-1 Rich Strike in 2023 and 20-1 Animal Kingdom in 2012, with the latter making his dirt debut in the Kentucky Derby following a smashing win in the Spiral (G3) (now the Jeff Ruby Steaks) over a synthetic track.

Of the 19 North American-based horses entered (Speed ratings not available for internationals Admire Daytona and Luxor Café), including also-eligible Baeza, 11 have registered a triple-digit Speed rating, including eight in the final prep race. 

We will focus on the final two prep races, ranking the Kentucky Derby field by last-out number.

Takeaways

Let’s preview the major players.

Journalism easily tops the main body of the field, netting a 108 Speed rating when winning the Santa Anita Derby (G1) by about a length. Listed as the 3-1 morning line favorite, Journalism towers over most of the field in terms of numbers. He registered a 104, posting a convincing win in the San Felipe (G2) two back that has been eclipsed by only three entrants this year.

The Mike McCarthy-trained colt is by Curlin, who is seeking a well-deserved Kentucky Derby win as a sire after producing winners of the Preakness (G1) and Belmont (G1). And Curlin’s son, Good Magic, sired Mage.

Baeza, who needs one defection to make the starting gate, received a 107, finishing second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. The number is imposing at face value, and Baeza may be talented enough to overcome any obstacles, but there are red flags. Baeza lacks seasoning, breaking his maiden two starts previously, and will try to avoid a regression after a significant increase to a career-best figure.

Rodriguez has made a favorable impression locally after running the second-fastest Wood Memorial (G2) in the last 20 years, receiving a 105 Speed rating. However, the speedy colt lacks options from post 4 and exits a 14-point jump in numbers, earning a pair of 91s for his two previous stakes attempts in Southern California.

American Promise will face a serious class test following a frontrunning romp in the Virginia Derby seven weeks earlier. His 105 Speed rating last time merits respect, but one can question whether the chestnut will be able to run back to it given his numbers from two previous stakes efforts this year (85 and 91).

Grande (101 Speed rating for runner-up in the Wood) is a lightly raced colt from the barn of two-time Kentucky Derby winner Todd Pletcher, and his numbers increased nicely in his stakes debut last time. 

Final Gambit is inexperienced, breaking his maiden two back at Turfway, and his numbers increased significantly in his stakes debut last out, registering a 101 for a 3 1/2-length victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). But I’m not as concerned about a regression given that he’s switching surfaces; Final Gambit appears to be training forwardly at Churchill Downs and the late runner will be one to consider for exotics at long odds.

Sandman registered a 101 Speed rating winning the Arkansas Derby (G1), his first triple-digit number in five stakes attempts. But considering he received respectable numbers for troubled trips in his first two stakes this year (95 in his previous start), Sandman figured to earn a better Speed rating stretching out in distance with a favorable setup if he could avoid trouble. He’s eligible to receive another favorable setup in a speed-laden Kentucky Derby field, and Sandman rates as one to consider based on numbers.

Florida Derby (G1) runner-up Sovereignty lacks a triple-digit Speed rating, but he came close, earning a 99 for his Fountain of Youth (G2) win two back. A smashing stakes winner at Churchill Downs last fall, Sovereignty may not have appreciated the Gulfstream surface as much, and he’s a candidate to keep progressing with a career-best effort that easily nets a triple-digit Speed rating.

Blue Grass (G1) winner Burnham Square received a 101 Speed rating winning the Holy Bull (G3) three back, and the late runner can’t be dismissed from top three contention based on numbers. Tiztastic put it all together upsetting the Louisiana Derby (G2), earning a 100 Speed rating, and the late runner is one to add when building exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.

Citizen Bull netted triple-digit numbers winning his final two starts last year, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and American Pharoah (G1), but he will need to step forward for six-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert after failing to run as fast in a pair of starts this year. Publisher and Chunk of Gold also deserve mention after earning a 98 Speed rating in the final prep; they face a tall challenge for the win, but rate as viable candidates for the minor awards.

Good luck playing Kentucky Derby 151!