How to Calculate Fair Odds for the 2025 Kentucky Derby
Journalism winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) at Los Alamitos (Photo by Benoit Photo)
April 25th, 2025
Calculating a fair odds line for the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) is a multi-step process, but it helps determine which horse(s) to bet and is worth the effort.
Exactly what odds constitute “fair odds” for each Kentucky Derby contender varies depending on who you ask, since different handicappers will have different views of the race. I’m going to walk you through my process for crafting a 2025 Kentucky Derby fair odds line, and whether you agree or disagree with my conclusions, you can utilize my approach to calculate your own fair odds.
What is a fair odds line?
A fair odds line determines the minimum odds at which you should consider betting a horse to win, based on your opinion of their chances. If you believe a horse has a 33% chance of winning the Kentucky Derby, you’ll want to accept odds no lower than 2-1.
The table below shows common odds and the chances of winning they represent, as detailed in the 2009 edition of The American Racing Manual published by Daily Racing Form Press:
| Odds | Win chance | Odds | Win chance |
|---|
1-20 | 95.20 | 6-1 | 14.29 |
1-10 | 90.91 | 7-1 | 12.50 |
1-5 | 83.33 | 8-1 | 11.11 |
1-4 | 80.00 | 9-1 | 10.00 |
3-10 | 76.92 | 10-1 | 9.09 |
2-5 | 71.42 | 11-1 | 8.33 |
1-2 | 66.67 | 12-1 | 7.69 |
3-5 | 62.50 | 13-1 | 7.14 |
7-10 | 58.84 | 14-1 | 6.66 |
4-5 | 55.55 | 15-1 | 6.25 |
9-10 | 52.63 | 16-1 | 5.88 |
1-1 | 50.00 | 17-1 | 5.55 |
6-5 | 45.45 | 18-1 | 5.26 |
7-5 | 41.67 | 19-1 | 5.00 |
8-5 | 38.46 | 20-1 | 4.76 |
9-5 | 35.71 | 25-1 | 3.85 |
2-1 | 33.33 | 30-1 | 3.23 |
5-2 | 28.57 | 40-1 | 2.44 |
3-1 | 25.00 | 50-1 | 1.96 |
7-2 | 22.23 | 60-1 | 1.64 |
4-1 | 20.00 | 75-1 | 1.32 |
9-2 | 18.19 | 80-1 | 1.24 |
5-1 | 16.67 | 100-1 | 0.99 |
Calculating a fair odds line for the 2025 Kentucky Derby
To create a fair odds line for the Kentucky Derby, I must assign a win probability to all 20 horses in the field. Their combined win probabilities must add up to 100%, give or take a few tenths of a percentage.
When I calculate fair odds for the Kentucky Derby, I start with longshots. Over the last two to three decades, horses I never would have bet (including some inscrutable longshots) have won roughly one out of every five Kentucky Derbys. So right off the bat, I set aside 20% of the win probability points to divide among 10 or so horses I would be surprised to see visit the winner’s circle.
This year, those horses are Admire Daytona, American Promise, Burnham Square, Chunk of Gold, Coal Battle, East Avenue, Flying Mohawk, Neoequos, Owen Almighty, and Publisher. I’ve assigned them fair odds between 40-1 and 100-1. If any start at meaningfully higher prices than my fair odds, they may be worthy of a win bet.
Then I debate the merits of my top choice. This year, it’s Journalism, who posted triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings when winning the San Felipe (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1). In the latter race, he steadied in traffic at a key moment around the far turn, but overcame that obstacle with a strong homestretch rally.
No fake news here, Journalism is in town for the Kentucky Derby! 🌹✍️
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) April 23, 2025
What do you think about his chances? 🤔 @AshleyAnd502 pic.twitter.com/PyINRp5k7E
I’m confident Journalism will win the Kentucky Derby. His two-prep approach has set him up for a peak performance on the first Saturday in May. But how to determine his fair odds?
I think of it this way: If the 2025 Kentucky Derby were contested 10 times, how many would Journalism win? Assuming two (20%) are won by horses I don’t plan on betting, I believe Journalism wins roughly three of the other eight. That means his win probability is 30%; I’ll lower it slightly to 28.57% and assign him fair odds of 5-2.
From here, fleshing out the rest of the fair odds line is straightforward. I view Wood Memorial (G2) winner Rodriguez and Florida Derby (G1) runner-up Sovereignty as the most likely horses to upset Journalism, but I don’t anticipate either winning more than one out of every 10 tries (10%), so I’ll assign them both 9-1 fair odds.
I respect the chances of Luxor Cafe and Tappan Street, but I’d want somewhat higher odds (15-1) before betting them to win. Final Gambit (20-1), Citizen Bull (25-1), and Grande (25-1) are intriguing live longshots I’d be willing to bet if their post-time odds are high enough. Lastly, I won’t be shocked if Sandman (30-1) or Tiztastic (30-1) win the Derby, but I like the chances of others better.
| Horse | Fair Odds | Win Chance |
| Journalism | 5-2 | 28.57% |
| Rodriguez | 9-1 | 10% |
| Sovereignty | 9-1 | 10% |
| Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | 6.25% |
| Tappan Street | 15-1 | 6.25% |
| Final Gambit | 20-1 | 4.76% |
| Citizen Bull | 25-1 | 3.85% |
| Grande | 25-1 | 3.85% |
| Sandman | 30-1 | 3.23% |
| Tiztastic | 30-1 | 3.23% |
| American Promise | 35-1 | 2.78% |
| Burnham Square | 40-1 | 2.44% |
| Chunk of Gold | 40-1 | 2.44% |
| Coal Battle | 40-1 | 2.44% |
| Admire Daytona | 50-1 | 1.96% |
| East Avenue | 50-1 | 1.96% |
| Flying Mohawk | 50-1 | 1.96% |
| Publisher | 50-1 | 1.96% |
| Neoequos | 75-1 | 1.32% |
| Owen Almighty | 100-1 | 0.99% |
| Total: | 100.24% |
Come Kentucky Derby Day, I expect Journalism to be favored somewhere in the 3-1 range, so he’ll make a good win bet. However, most of the other horses figure to start at lower prices than my fair odds. Possible exceptions include Final Gambit (he’ll surely be higher than 20-1) and Rodriguez (who may go off at marginally higher than 9-1).
One final note: My fair odds pertain to win chances only. Even if a horse is too short a price in the win pool, I’ll consider using them for second or third place (underneath Journalism) in exotic wagers like the exacta and trifecta.
Sometimes you glance at the pedigree of a potential @KentuckyDerby contender and know with certainty they’re bred to shine racing 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May. ✅
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) April 17, 2025
Such is the case for Journalism. Read more about his pedigree! ⤵️ @J_Keelerman https://t.co/6HcynkR6MU pic.twitter.com/E2trN2tKm2
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