Journalism closes as 5-1 favorite in KDFW Pool 5; Good Cheer dominates Oaks Future at 2-1

Pool 5 of the 2025 Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) closed Sunday evening with Journalism as the overall favorite at 5-1 from the 7-1 Sovereignty. The picture was much more one-sided in the lone Kentucky Oaks Future Wager, as Good Cheer was the runaway choice at 2-1.

Journalism was expected to take command of the market following his emphatic victory in the March 1 San Felipe (G2) over Barnes, hitherto the individual favorite in Pools 2, 3, and 4. Although Journalism’s Pool 5 morning-line price of 3-1 proved to be too skimpy, the Michael McCarthy trainee still attracted enough support to rank as the overall favorite. In contrast, Barnes was the subject of a market correction in the wake of his first career loss in his two-turn debut, drifting up to 15-1.

Like Journalism, Sovereignty boosted his Kentucky Derby (G1) credentials with a March 1 comeback score in the Fountain of Youth (G2). The Bill Mott pupil had been a 17-1 chance in mid-February’s Pool 4, where Journalism was let go at 19-1. 

Citizen Bull, last year’s champion two-year-old male and victor of the Feb. 1 Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita, did not have the advantage of recency since Pool 4. Yet the Bob Baffert colt held steady at 9-1 in Pool 5, the same odds that he finished the prior pool.

The only Road to the Kentucky Derby event held during Pool 5, Saturday’s Virginia Derby, saw a track record-setting performance from American Promise. Not listed as an individual betting interest, the D. Wayne Lukas runner likely helped the mutuel field of “All others” contract slightly from a 12-1 morning line to 10-1. Even so, that wide-ranging option, which had been the overall favorite in the first four pools, slid into the overall fourth choice in Pool 5.

Noteworthy market movers were the rags-to-riches Coal Battle, the streaking Rebel (G2) hero who shortened to 14-1; Baffert’s flashy Oaklawn Park debut winner Cornucopian, steaming from 60-1 to 15-1 in his first KDFW appearance; and Lukas’s Sunland Park Derby near-misser Caldera, a 50-1 shot bet down to 18-1.

The morning line for the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager (KOFW) projected more competition between Good Cheer and Tenma, but it was no contest. The Brad Cox-trained Good Cheer was trimmed from 3-1 to 2-1, with Tenma ballooning from 7-2 to 13-1. “All other three-year-old fillies” traded as the third choice at 14-1.

Complete results, including will-pays, will be accessible on the special Future Wager page at kentuckyderby.com.

Pool 6, the final KDFW opportunity before the May 3 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, opens April 3 and closes April 5 before post time for the main domestic preps.