Kentucky Derby International Scouting Report: Luxor Cafe, Admire Daytona

After Japan came closer than ever in the 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1), the two Japanese shippers for the 2025 Run for the Roses will attract plenty of attention. But can Luxor Cafe or Admire Daytona surpass the feat of last year’s near-miss third, Forever Young? 

While Luxor Cafe brings budding star quality, he’s not as battle-tested as Forever Young had been before his arrival at Churchill Downs. Luxor Cafe booked his ticket by winning the final two scoring races on the Japan Road, and the Kentucky Derby is his first foreign venture. In contrast, Forever Young had opportunities to prove his mettle on the international stage, overcoming different types of adversity in the Saudi Derby (G3) and the UAE Derby (G2). 

Admire Daytona passed his international test in the UAE Derby, and he had to withstand a trial by fire to earn his way in via the newly rebranded Euro/Mideast Road. Yet he’s generally lacked the brilliance of Luxor Cafe, who beat him twice in Japan. Admire Daytona instead, brings consistency and unwavering determination, qualities that cannot be underestimated.

If neither of this year’s contenders offers the total package that Forever Young did, it’s worth noting that both have better resumes than last year’s Japan Road invitee, T O Password. Just barely holding on in the last qualifier at Nakayama, he made his third career start in the Kentucky Derby, blew the break, and finished a remarkable fifth. His effort was somewhat obscured by Forever Young’s bold show, but T O Password indicated that a Japanese allowance horse, who hadn’t even run in a black-type stakes at home, could be competitive in the Kentucky Derby. 

Luxor Cafe

By Triple Crown champion American Pharoah, Luxor Cafe is making a homecoming to his native Kentucky. He was bred by the Coolmore-connected Orpendale/Chelston/Wynatt and Westerberg Ireland and sold to Koichi Nishikawa, who campaigned his champion full brother Cafe Pharoah. Luxor Cafe and Cafe Pharoah are also half-brothers to U.S. champion turf mare Regal Glory, all out of the Grade 2-winning More Than Ready mare Mary’s Follies.

Interestingly, Cafe Pharoah won the 2020 Japan Road, but did not accept his invitation to compete in the pandemic-postponed Derby. He suffered his first career loss when trying about 1 1/4 miles in the Japan Dirt Derby, and although he later captured the about 1 3/16-mile Sirius (G3), Cafe Pharoah ended up being most effective around a metric mile. He scored his signature wins in back-to-back runnings of the February (G1). Half-sister Regal Glory likewise found her wheelhouse going a mile, in her case on turf.

Luxor Cafe has shown a potent closing kick over a route of ground, implying greater distance capacity than his champion siblings. Still, their limitations might be instructive, considering he’ll have to cope with a likely fast pace in the Derby. Closing off a strong tempo is a different ball game from quickening off steady or slower fractions. 

The other potential question mark is how Luxor Cafe might handle the dirt flying in his face as he finds himself amid the opening cavalry charge from post 7. He didn’t like it at all in his debut at Sapporo, where he wound up fourth. When drawn in post 4 in his second start at the same track, Luxor Cafe broke a beat slow. As the leaders established separation, the rider took the opportunity to steer Luxor Cafe to his outside comfort zone, and he rallied willingly for second by a scant neck.

In his ensuing four-race winning streak, Luxor Cafe has been able to work out clear trips on the outside. He broke his maiden in an epic tussle with Admire Daytona, both colts eclipsing the juvenile track record for a metric mile at Tokyo. Luxor Cafe next outclassed the opposition when stretching out to about 1 1/8 miles for a Nakayama allowance, breaking well and tracking in second before pulling away. 

Luxor Cafe was not quite as emphatic in his lone black-type stakes, the listed Hyacinth S. on the Japan Road. Cutting back to Tokyo’s metric mile, he pounced on the leaders, but found his margin reduced to a half-length by the fast-finishing filly Promised Gene. Admire Daytona put himself out of position by a sluggish break, and given his preference to race handy, he deserves credit for getting up for fourth. 

We would have learned more if Luxor Cafe had jetted off to Dubai. He was entitled to ace the Japan Road finale, the Fukuryu S. over the same track and trip as his earlier allowance romp, and he duly imposed his authority by five lengths. With Derby rider Joao “Magic Man” Moreira aboard for the first time, Luxor Cafe traveled strongly just off the pace from post 11, ranged up on the far turn, and delivered the coup de grace. 

Luxor Cafe has won in the manner of a superstar at Nakayama, but at Tokyo, he’s cut it closer. I’m inclined to think it’s because the particular circumstances of those races around Tokyo’s one-turn mile, compared to Nakayama’s two-turn allowances. But there are other variables in play. At right-handed Nakayama, he was drubbing lesser, and at Tokyo, he was facing better going left-handed. 

The Derby conundrum is whether Luxor Cafe’s raw ability is enough to negate the potential concerns – namely, if he can take his game on the road at this fledgling stage of his career, and if he’s dependent on a familiar outside trip. 

Perhaps the biggest clue is the fact that trainer Noriyuki Hori is willing to try. Hori is a master at winning abroad, and he just scooped up another major victory in Hong Kong in Sunday’s QEII Cup (G1). 

Admire Daytona

Admire Daytona’s near-miss to Luxor Cafe in that blistering Tokyo maiden suggests that we shouldn’t take his Hyacinth fourth at face value. In a similar vein, his hard-fought UAE Derby decision has more merit than it might appear at first blush.

Like Forever Young a product of Northern Farm in Japan, Admire Daytona is by champion sprinter Drefong. His dam is a daughter of the plucky Shackleford, who finished fourth in the 2011 Derby but turned the tables on Animal Kingdom in the Preakness (G1). Admire Daytona’s maternal grandmother is by Sunday Silence and out of 1988 Alabama (G1) heroine Maplejinsky.

Trained by Yukihiro Kato, who is best known for dirt performer Nonkono Yume, Admire Daytona has yet to run a bad race or finish worse than fourth. His first five starts all came over Tokyo’s metric mile, where he scored an overdue maiden win easily and wheeled back on short rest for his excusable Hyacinth loss.

Thus Admire Daytona was making his two-turn debut in the UAE Derby. Top jockey Christophe Lemaire read the tactical situation correctly to put him on the lead, although he had never set the pace in Japan. Admire Daytona fended off all comers, even when he looked completely in the grasp of Dubai Carnival regular Heart of Honor and fellow Japanese shipper Don in the Mood. 

On a strict reading of form, the UAE Derby result boosts Luxor Cafe, since he had defeated Admire Daytona and Don in the Mood handily in the Hyacinth. In the context of how Admire Daytona prevailed, though, he deserves extra credit for answering three simultaneous questions thrown at him – international travel, a significant step up in distance to about 1 3/16 miles, and a change of tactics. 

For that reason, I suspect that we don’t really know what Admire Daytona’s ceiling might be. He’ll probably revert to his pace-chasing role at Churchill, which could suit him better than the tactics he had to employ at Meydan. 

The question is whether Admire Daytona will regress from that all-out dogfight on April 5, a week later than the usual date that gives a little less recuperation time. The signs are encouraging in his morning training at Churchill, and his connections appear to be happy with the way he’s recovered. 

For more details and race replays, visit the Luxor Cafe and Admire Daytona features on KentuckyDerby.com.