Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Colloquial stuns but plans to keep sprinting

Is early February too late for a potential Kentucky Derby (G1) contender to break his maiden and still qualify to compete on the first Saturday in May?

Recent history says no. Not only can late January/early February maiden winners make the Kentucky Derby field, they can win. Case in point, 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify didn’t debut until Feb. 18, and 2023 Kentucky Derby conqueror Mage got started only slightly earlier on Jan. 28.

That might be a moot point for sensational maiden winner Colloquial, since he isn’t currently nominated to the Triple Crown. According to David Grening of the Daily Racing Form, current plans call for him to skip the spring classics in favor of one-turn races. That’s understandable since Colloquial is a son of talented sprinter/miler Vekoma, but perhaps the Kentucky Derby will reenter the conversation if he continues to impress through the winter and spring.

After all, the George Weaver trainee delivered a tremendous victory at Aqueduct last Friday. And whereas Justify and Mage went unraced at age two (and thus had the Apollo Curse to overcome), Colloquial made his debut last June and has more experience under his belt.

Colloquial’s June debut came in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct. Right off the bat, his talent was evident. Pace-tracking tactics left with him five lengths to gain on frontrunning Mentee through the final furlong, and by dashing that distance in :11.47 per the Equibase GPS result chart, Colloquial closed all but a nose of that gap. Mentee—future winner of the Futurity (G3)—broke a decades-old track record while reaching the finish line in :56.97. Colloquial, who clocked :56.98, likewise broke the track record.

Unfortunately, Colloquial went to the sidelines after his promising debut and didn’t return to serious training until November. But nine timed workouts at Palm Beach Downs had him fit for a big comeback at Aqueduct. Favored at 3-4 to win a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight, Colloquial rated as many as three lengths behind splits of :22.89 and :46.61 before seizing command and finishing fast to score by seven lengths in the strong time of 1:16.89.

The runner-up pulled 12 lengths clear of the rest, so any way you slice it Colloquial ran a giant race in his comeback.

Two prospects who are Triple Crown nominees recorded notable maiden wins last week. The first we’ll analyze is Hymn, a debut winner who will have to reckon with the Apollo Curse if he’s going to vie for victory on the first Saturday in May.

Trained by Ron Moquett, Hymn debuted on Saturday in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Oaklawn Park. The son of hot young sire McKinzie was always prominent, settling in third place behind splits of :21.73 and :45.52 before advancing to challenge in midstretch. From there, he dashed his final furlong in a quick :12.20 to draw off and dominate by four lengths in the sharp time of 1:10.13.

Moquett’s lifetime win rate with first-time starters is 9%, so when a Moquett trainee wins on debut, it can be a sign of serious talent. Last fall, Moquett sent out Speed King to win first-time out at Churchill Downs, and Speed King has since won the Southwest (G3) and placed second in the Remington Springboard Mile S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Perhaps we’ll see Hymn follow a similar upward trajectory.

The other Triple Crown nominee we’ll highlight is Multiverse, from the barn of Riley Mott. Multiverse failed to win in three starts last year, but along the way he knocked heads with some talented horses, including future Holy Bull (G3) 1-2 finishers Burnham Square and Tappan Street.

Multiverse made his three-year-old debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, and the $575,000 yearling acquisition delivered by far his best performance to date. After settling in midfield behind splits of :22.10 and :45.41, he unleashed a big outside rally in the homestretch to power clear and win by 4 1/2 lengths in 1:10.32.

A gelded son of three-time Grade 1-winning sprinter/miler Practical Joke, Multiverse is arguably bred for speed more than stamina. But he’s progressing in the right direction and is worth watching as winter turns to spring.

Top maiden winner of the week: Colloquial

Honorable mention: Hymn