Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Cornucopian wins like Justify

Seven years ago, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert pulled off a seemingly impossible feat.

On Feb. 18, 2018, Baffert sent out a promising three-year-old named Justify to win his debut in a maiden special weight. Just 2 1/2 months later, Justify prevailed in the Kentucky Derby (G1), becoming the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without racing at age two. Justify later won the Preakness (G1) and Belmont (G1) to become the 13th U.S. Triple Crown winner.

Transforming from an unraced maiden into a Kentucky Derby winner in the span of 2 1/2 months requires a special horse. With Justify, Baffert redefined what’s possible when preparing horses for the Kentucky Derby in the modern era. Now Baffert has chances to do it again with Cornucopian and Tiz Secure, two Triple Crown nominees who have debuted at even later dates than Justify.

Cornucopian got started last Sunday, five days further into the calendar than Justify. The $1.1 million yearling acquisition started as the 7-10 favorite in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Oaklawn Park and won in a manner reminiscent of his Triple Crown-winning predecessor.

Under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., Cornucopian broke on top and engaged in a speed duel through fractions of :21.86 and :45.50. His pace rival soon gave way, but Cornucopian kept going, running his fifth furlong in :11.91 and his final furlong in a blazing :11.61 to draw off and win by 5 3/4 lengths in 1:09.02. No horse has run a faster six furlongs at Oaklawn this meet; for comparison; six-year-old Ninja Warrior required 1:10.09 to win an allowance later in the afternoon.

Any way you slice it, this was a monumental debut from Cornucopian. A son of six-time leading North American sire Into Mischief (who has sired Kentucky Derby winners Authentic and Mandaloun), Cornucopian may have what it takes to join the Road to the Kentucky Derby even at this late date.

Tiz Secure debuted four days later than Justify but a day earlier than Cornucopian, in a six-furlong maiden special weight on Saturday at Santa Anita. The chestnut colt employed different racing tactics from Cornucopian, rating a couple of lengths behind an opening quarter-mile in :22.34 before advancing to challenge through half a mile in :45.39. But he was similarly impressive down the homestretch, seizing command and drawing away through a final furlong in :12.14 to win by 4 3/4 lengths in 1:09.92.

A homebred racing for the partnership of Karl Watson and Paul Weitman, Tiz Secure is a son of champion three-year-old male Maximum Security out of multiple Grade 1 winner Tough Tiz’s Sis. Maximum Security famously crossed the wire first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, only to be disqualified for causing interference.

It remains to be seen whether Baffert will pursue the Kentucky Derby with Cornucopian and/or Tiz Secure or take a more conservative approach. At this point in the season, it could be tricky for either colt to squeeze in three pre-Derby starts the way Justify did—this year’s Derby falls earlier on the calendar than in 2018.

But even a two-start preparation isn’t unprecedented. In 2022, a colt named Taiba—originally trained by Baffert—dominated his debut on March 5. One month later he won the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and a month after that he competed in the Kentucky Derby. Taiba didn’t win the Run for the Roses, finishing 12th, but he blazed a two-start trail to Derby qualification that Cornucopian and Tiz Secure are eligible to follow.

Three other maiden winners from last week are worth highlighting, though two of them aren’t currently nominated to the Triple Crown.

At Oaklawn Park, Triple Crown nominee Clever Again returned from a 10-month layoff to win a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on Sunday. Stretching out off a runner-up debut sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland last spring, Clever Again handled the extra half-mile with aplomb, leading all the way through splits of :23.45, :47.82, and 1:12.53 to win by 3 1/4 lengths in the respectable time of 1:43.48. Steve Asmussen trains the son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.

At Aqueduct on Sunday, the fourth time was the charm for Tracking Error. Fourth, second, and third in his first three starts, Tracking Error achieved his breakthrough win in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight. The son of 2018 Kentucky Derby runner-up Good Magic set fractions of :25.26, :50.61, and 1:15.70 on his way to victory by 5 1/2 lengths in 1:53.51. Perhaps trainer Chad Brown will consider starting Tracking Error in the Wood Memorial (G2) over the same track and distance.

Good Magic is also the sire of Skate Away, a Todd Pletcher trainee who impressed in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. Stretching out off a fourth-place debut sprinting at Gulfstream, Skate Away relished the longer distance, dashing to the front through splits of :23.83, :48.46, and 1:13.22 before edging clear to prevail by 2 3/4 lengths in 1:51.20.

Gulfstream’s 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1) could be a logical target if Pletcher choose to aim Skate Away at a Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier.

Top maiden winner of the week: Cornucopian

Honorable mention: Tiz Secure